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2023.05.28 04:48 berdistehwerd Range Day: Competition Shooting (2/5), IPSC
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Mick's pistol because I want a cover image
Mick reference
Random drawing of Finn
Memory transcription subject: “Mick”, Venlil, Former mechanical engineer, Gunsmith apprentice
Date [Standardized Human Time]: November 17, 2136
We lined up outside of the facility where our first competition would be held. The official rules would have to be explained to us before we started, as is standard for these events. Finn had already given me most of the knowledge I needed, but I still had to listen to the instructor’s words, unless I wanted to do something wrong and be disqualified.
“Alright, is everyone here?” The instructor shouted. “Nobody unaccounted for? Perfect! I see some new faces here today, so I’m going to have to go over the rules again.”
“First up, the basic safety rules must be followed at all times, no exceptions, ever! Understood?”
The line of about 20 competitors all barked out an affirmative in unison, I followed shortly after.
“Good! Good. Second rule, prioritize safety above all else. If you see someone doing something wrong, or dangerous, or outright stupid, point it out to me or one of the other safety guys around. Understood?”
“Yes sir!” The whole line responded.
The instructor’s presence was quite hard to ignore, it seems this man has a history of yelling at people to get points across to their head.
“Good! Alright, third rule. Have fun, don't die.”
“Yes sir!” we all said again.
“If nobody has any questions, we shall begin! Whoever’s first, go to the line, hands on the door, then wait for instructions. I shall follow suit shortly. When you’re done with the course, make your way up to the catwalk, the view’s great from up there, trust me. For now, sit and wait for your turn.”
Finn turned to me and added onto the instructor’s advice. “Hey Mick, don’t expect to be able to sprint through the whole thing like last time, pace yourself, depending on how they set this up, this course could take anywhere from a minute to 10, we won’t know until we’re both done. They don’t want people to cheat, taking it blind is part of the fun with this style of comp.”
Finn looked a little tense, as if the anticipation was getting to him. I knew it was getting to me too, so no wonder it was getting to him. A while ago, I figured out that I didn’t feel things quite the same as most everyone else did. Things that made others incredibly disgusted only made me a little uncomfortable. I didn’t feel loneliness even after days worth of isolation. All of the time I spent was either working or sleeping, I didn’t feel the need for free time, and I liked having a lot of surplus money, so I worked. That was, at least until I found the exchange program. It paid a decent amount of money, so I was compelled to join up. These humans couldn’t be so bad, plus I needed something new to do. Fortunately, I had previously passed empathy tests, albeit barely. It registered enough of an empathetic response for me to pass undetected. I was legally free of predator disease.
Apparently, a few of the earliest exchange partners had a bug where they could share images, and we had that bug, so I got to see the humans' appearance way earlier than most. Bipedal, tall, forward facing eyes, mostly hairless, wearing textiles to replace their lack of hair. That didn’t bother me too much, unsurprising considering my overall lack of intense emotional response that had prompted the earlier PD screenings.
It had been about [30 minutes], about half the competitors had already gone through the course before us. My turn was up next, and Finn was right after me, we were just waiting for the competitor currently in the course to finish.
A bell chimed, signifying that the last guy had made it through, finishing his run. Finn gave me a pat on the back, a sign that I should get ready to get in there.
“Remember to pace yourself, you know, you can’t run through this behemoth in 20 seconds. Slow and steady will win you the race.” Finn advised.
“Alrighty, next competitor!” The instructor bellowed, almost interrupting Finn’s advice. “Minek the Venlil? You ready?”
“As ready as I'll ever be, I guess.” I said, anticipation and nerves high.
I don’t necessarily like talking to people, particularly the ones I don’t know. Another aspect of why I felt like my home was better set on earth, rather than that sunside town where everyone just had to stop and get to know you. I’m not going back, even under the threat of annihilation, like what nearly happened to all of earth’s inhabitants.
“Make ready, put your hands on the door, your run starts once the timer beeps. If the lights turn red, stop your run immediately, make clear, holster your weapon. Understood?”
“Understood.” I replied.
I seated a new magazine into my pistol, racked the slide, holstered it, and placed my hands on the door. Here was my time to shine, I guess.
“Shooter ready? Standby…”
The moment of silence between the announcer’s callout and the timer’s beep felt like a small eternity.
BEEP!
I popped the door open as quickly as I could, took a high-ready stance, and began steadily advancing through the entrance hallway. There was a door on the left, as I entered it, I see a target standing both behind a target and a hostage. I'm forced to take my time lining up the headshot, KRAK, the target fragments into digital fragments. Another target to the right of it, slam a round through its torso. Move on, 2 targets behind a barricade, one no shoot. Take out both targets swiftly, then take a peek around the next corner. At the last moment, I spot a somewhat hidden cranny in the course right after the hallway, on my left. I backpedal, swing the pistol around the corner, and plant a round square through the chest of a target that was hiding within.
Now actually going down the hallway, there’s another hallway on the right, and a T-junction at the very end. The hallway on the right has 2 targets right next to each other, shoot and no-shoot. I take this quickly, they aren’t overlapped or anything special, just next to each other. I nearly missed because I was still moving when I shot, I needed to take more time lining up, no way I could keep getting this lucky. Left side of the junction has a shoot target, the right side has another hallway to the left of it. The rest of the floor was mostly the same, sending rounds through targets and reloading once, much like the rest of the course, right up until the end of the floor.
I rounded a corner partially blocked by a non-target, to see a small shooting gallery within the killhouse, and a door on the opposite side of the entrance. I have to clear the targets before the door will open, as instructed by the label on it. Two small, circular holograms appear before my eyes, roughly in the middle of the room. Two pops later, my magazine has run out. I haven’t even gotten through my (slightly) practiced reload, when another set of targets appear on the left side of the room. The surprise of more targets caused me to fumble slightly, tapping the magazine against the bottom of the grip. I slap the magazine back into its rightful place within my pistol, tap for good measure, drop the slide, pop the targets. The door remains still, so there are more targets to hit, I reckon. They happened to appear right I thought of them, one close and to the left, the other far and to the right. This forces me to swing my aim across the room, and I nearly missed a target again, barely clipping the right edge of the far target.
Too close, me. Too close. I somehow haven’t missed a target yet, and I intend to keep it that way.
The door finally opened, so I made my way through, and made my way up the stairs that followed the door. At the top of the stairs stood a target peeking over. Almost reflexively, I was steadily advancing past the target, without stopping I put the barrel to the target’s face, then fired. 2 rounds remaining in the magazine. The left side had a familiar set of targets similar to the little practice house. A set of closet like rooms, filled with a couple of shoot and no shoot targets. Bang, round the next corner, bang and a clack. Empty, reload, don’t fumble it this time, another target around the corner, bang.
The next few hallways were similar to the rest, a no shoot around a corner, a shoot target sitting opposite that, then I saw something I hadn't seen earlier. A direction marking on the floor, telling me to walk past the door, to a piece of half-height cover leading into an incredibly long (for this type of scenario) hallway. At the end was a hostage type target, held in such a way that you had to either hit the slightly poking out head, or the very exposed leg sitting out to the right of the target.
I take a bracing pose against the left side of the wall, on the corner. It took me a moment to line it up properly, but I sent a round flying through my target’s lower thigh, causing it to stumble out of line with the hostage, the hostage remaining exactly in its position. That’s interesting, I didn’t know the targets were dynamic like that. I had been “killing” them with direct chest or headshots for every shot that I had hit, so I had never gotten a chance to see these targets actually do their dynamic animations before. I’ll have to ask how that works later. I finished the target off with a nice shot to the chest, after it had fallen to the floor, crippled due to its leg injury. The target fragmented as the holographic display was pierced by my round, double confirming that these targets were still projections.
The door to my left had opened with a clunk a moment after I had shot the target for the second time. I preformed more of the same clearing maneuvers and shooting of targets. A pair of these targets happened to line up, almost perfectly for a collateral shot. I took aim against the target further to the rear, my round propelling itself toward the target with its aim true. It took a path where I thought it would destroy both the near and far target with the same shot, however, the bullet only grazed the first hologram, causing it to stumble backward with its dynamic system. Despite not killing the first target, it still smacked against the rear target with a standard killing shot, fragmenting into its hundreds of red shards that I had become accustomed to.
Advancing further into the labyrinth, I swiftly finished off the wounded target that had stumbled backward into a corner. Just to the right of the target, a sign on the wall pointed me downward, telling me to crawl through a claustrophobic, vent-like passage, about [2 feet] tall. I read the sign, dropped to the floor, and slid down through the little hole in the wall. Out the left of the hole, a target stood waiting for whatever round I planned on giving him, out in the open.
I wonder…
I approached the target, pistol held like a little baton. With as much force as I could for good measure, I slapped the target with the pistol.
Whiff
Seems I was wrong. I place my aim onto the target that I had unsuccessfully slapped, fired, then went to move on. Another target was in a little closet behind it, so I spun around to shoot that one too. This killhouse seemed to span for an eternity, and I thought I must be nearing the end of it soon.
Round the corner, no-shoot target, keep going around the U shaped hallway, another no-shoot target in the middle of the hallway. Pass it by, another bend in the wall, with a shoot target just beyond it. I go to fire my weapon, and…
Click.
The slide is open.
That isn’t supposed to happen, I had 3 rounds left in the magazine!
I take a quick inspection of my gun, a casing got stuck in the chamber, and now was blocking up the entire gun’s mechanism. I had been taught what to do in this situation, the malfunction being called a “double feed,” which could occur more frequently if your gun ran older ammunition, which mine did.
I followed the standard jam-clearing procedure for a double feed, which was to first lock the slide to the rear, remove the magazine, drop the slide and rack again to remove the stuck casing, reinsert the magazine, then rack the slide again to seat a new round. With my jam now cleared, I shot the target in front of me in the face, destroying it instantly. Around the corner sat another set of targets, 2 of them I had to shoot.
I get my aim steady on the first, fire, target destroyed. The slide locked back, alerting me to my state of being out of ammo. I reach for another fresh magazine, and come back empty handed.
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK
I was completely out of ammo, and making good time up until now.
Melee won’t work, I had just figured that out, I'm out of magazines so I can’t reload even if I needed to, which I certainly did.
AHA!
I had accidentally let the stuck round fall out with the magazine while I was removing it from the gun, so now it was sitting on the floor. I dive over to it, grab the lonesome round off the floor, and carefully insert the round into the chamber of my pistol. This was a technique that you weren’t exactly supposed to do often, as it wears out the extractor much faster, leading to more frequent issues if it’s done too often. I drop the slide, letting the final round I had to my name seat itself within the chamber, ready to fire.
BANG.
The target shattered, the door on my left clunking open to reveal the light of day, and a catwalk to a platform above the range. I walk out, and hear another voice call out.
“Show clear, then holster your weapon. Your time is…187.87 seconds, nice work in there. If you want, go watch from above from that catwalk, the next run’s boutta to start.”
I walked up the stairs, legs quite a bit more fatigued than I expected them to be, although I had just been speed-walking for 3 minutes straight, and my heart was beating faster than I expected, probably due to that moment of panic after having my gun just jam up on me, compounded by the fact that I totally ran out of ammo. I reached the top, took a seat in a nice spot near the edge of the small congregation of other competitors, waiting for Finn to come waltzing through the course. There was a display on the top of the roof, showing us an overlay of the first floor, which would also show us the second floor once the competitor got to the staircase.
A few minutes passed, and I wasn't paying attention to Finn's run, since a few people had asked for me to take pictures with them, which I reluctantly agreed to. I could barely hear it, but the end timer from earlier had spoke up again; “show clear, holster your weapon. Your time is… 178.92, fastest time yet, good stuff.”
I broke away from the group who were trying to ask me questions to meet my friend at the top of the stairs, who acknowledged my completion with a firm ‘high five’, a human gesture I had been taught over my time with him.
“Phew, nice little course, huh Mick?” Finn offered.
“Yea… It was fun, albeit tiring.” I responded, with a tail wag
“I’d bet, worse stamina especially. Anyway, how’d ya do?”
“Slightly worse than you, 187 seconds.”
Wow! Nice, uhm, that’s actually really impressive for someone who’s never done this kinda thing before, how’d ya manage that?”
“Might be because I only ever had to hit the targets once, except for that really long range one, with the hostage?”
“Yea I know the one, tricky bastard to hit without clipping the hostage.”
“Did you know those targets are reactive? Actually yea, you probably do because you volunteer here, right?”
“Yep, I'm guessing that’s how you figured out they are? Shot em’ in the leg so he’d stumble? That’s the easiest way to do it, i reckon, but just moving to the right edge to line up an easier headshot is the more advantageous way to do it.”
“Yea that’s what I figured out. Oh, after that there was one kinda standing out in a hallway that I tried to hit with my pistol, didn’t do anything but since that one actually fell over earlier I was wondering if I could save the ammo, why didn’t hitting it work?”
“If you were actually in a situation where you were running around a big ol’ building trying to murder combatants inside to rescue hostages, do you think you would have the ability to whack someone in the face hard enough to outright kill them instantly? No, no you probably wouldn’t. The target impact system only tracks bullets anyway, punches or strikes don’t move fast enough to register on the system.”
“Oh, interesting. Say, how do the holograms work?”
“No clue, all I know is it has something to do with laser projectors and some weird illusions, then it has motion detectors tuned to a specific zone in space for tracking hits, quite interesting stuff if I do say so myself, even if I don't know how it works.”
“Yea, it is,” I said, not exactly registering what was said, “anyway, I think we should go figure out what the next event is, I don’t want to go into it blind like I would have if you hadn’t made me try the little version first.”
“Alright, follow me then.” Finn said, then began walking down the catwalk, leading me to our next event of the day, which I had been informed was a “long range vintage” event.
We made our way back over to the range we were at before, now situated with targets much further out than the aim trainer I had been using earlier. There were large signs, telling me distance next to little plates with concentric rings around a point in the middle. Finn walked back over to his car, pulled out a rifle box, and came back over to me.
"Ah, the wonders of long range shooting! You ready to learn about physics?" Finn exclaimed, clearly excited.
"No, not really, why do you ask?"
"Long range shooting, and especially extreme range shooting need a lot of little physics calculations for you to actually be able to hit the target from so far away. Bullets are little more than projectiles thrown at high velocity, but there's still things like gravity, wind, and sometimes even the fuckin' Coriolis effect to worry about while your round is flying!"
"Wait, you have to worry about the rotation of the planet while shooting long range? That's insane!"
"I know, right? that's why I love this stuff!"
The next [20 or 30 minutes] were taken up by a lengthy explanation of how a bullet flies, how a spotter and shooter system functions, how a spotter scope works, how to interpret what the spotter says, the list goes on. This had continued until the whistle blasted again, alerting us of another announcement.
"Everyone come over to the podium, we're having an awards ceremony! Be here in 5 minutes or we start without you, if you aren't already over here!" the voice of the instructor from earlier rang out. Finn and I went over to the podium, where a few boxes labeled 1, 2, and 3 resided.
The ceremony went well, apparently I had gotten third place, Finn got second, and someone who had ran after both of us got first.
After the ceremony, we were each handed a box of differing sizes, the winner got a certificate for a free rifle, Finn got a new 'plate carrier', a thing that was made to hold armor and magazines, and I got a pair of cargo pants.
I walked over to the little station they had set up nearby, got a few measurements taken, then was handed an (admittedly very fancy) pair of pants, clearly set up for humans instead of venlil.
Thankfully, I didn't have to modify them so I could wear them, there was already a little bit of a notch in the top of the beltline that let it comfortably sit just below my tail.
Another announcement came on soon after I got my new pants; "Next event starts in one hour, get some practice in before that, you might need it."
[First] [Previous] [Next (coming soon)]
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Author's note: This one took a lot longer than the other ones, although it's released in a shorter time frame, how ironic, i guess? I'm considering making a prologue to the story, probably during the exchange program, if I do, it will also help give some more context to Mick that I tried to expand on with this one.
I hope you enjoyed it, expect the next one... eventually.
Oh, and sorry about any walls of text, that was me trying to fill in to hit my self imposed 3000 word count, and also me not knowing how to effectively write "move, shoot, move again" about 20 times in a row.
submitted by berdistehwerd to NatureofPredators [link] [comments]
Mick's pistol because I want a cover image
Mick reference
Random drawing of Finn
Memory transcription subject: “Mick”, Venlil, Former mechanical engineer, Gunsmith apprentice
Date [Standardized Human Time]: November 17, 2136
We lined up outside of the facility where our first competition would be held. The official rules would have to be explained to us before we started, as is standard for these events. Finn had already given me most of the knowledge I needed, but I still had to listen to the instructor’s words, unless I wanted to do something wrong and be disqualified.
“Alright, is everyone here?” The instructor shouted. “Nobody unaccounted for? Perfect! I see some new faces here today, so I’m going to have to go over the rules again.”
“First up, the basic safety rules must be followed at all times, no exceptions, ever! Understood?”
The line of about 20 competitors all barked out an affirmative in unison, I followed shortly after.
“Good! Good. Second rule, prioritize safety above all else. If you see someone doing something wrong, or dangerous, or outright stupid, point it out to me or one of the other safety guys around. Understood?”
“Yes sir!” The whole line responded.
The instructor’s presence was quite hard to ignore, it seems this man has a history of yelling at people to get points across to their head.
“Good! Alright, third rule. Have fun, don't die.”
“Yes sir!” we all said again.
“If nobody has any questions, we shall begin! Whoever’s first, go to the line, hands on the door, then wait for instructions. I shall follow suit shortly. When you’re done with the course, make your way up to the catwalk, the view’s great from up there, trust me. For now, sit and wait for your turn.”
Finn turned to me and added onto the instructor’s advice. “Hey Mick, don’t expect to be able to sprint through the whole thing like last time, pace yourself, depending on how they set this up, this course could take anywhere from a minute to 10, we won’t know until we’re both done. They don’t want people to cheat, taking it blind is part of the fun with this style of comp.”
Finn looked a little tense, as if the anticipation was getting to him. I knew it was getting to me too, so no wonder it was getting to him. A while ago, I figured out that I didn’t feel things quite the same as most everyone else did. Things that made others incredibly disgusted only made me a little uncomfortable. I didn’t feel loneliness even after days worth of isolation. All of the time I spent was either working or sleeping, I didn’t feel the need for free time, and I liked having a lot of surplus money, so I worked. That was, at least until I found the exchange program. It paid a decent amount of money, so I was compelled to join up. These humans couldn’t be so bad, plus I needed something new to do. Fortunately, I had previously passed empathy tests, albeit barely. It registered enough of an empathetic response for me to pass undetected. I was legally free of predator disease.
Apparently, a few of the earliest exchange partners had a bug where they could share images, and we had that bug, so I got to see the humans' appearance way earlier than most. Bipedal, tall, forward facing eyes, mostly hairless, wearing textiles to replace their lack of hair. That didn’t bother me too much, unsurprising considering my overall lack of intense emotional response that had prompted the earlier PD screenings.
It had been about [30 minutes], about half the competitors had already gone through the course before us. My turn was up next, and Finn was right after me, we were just waiting for the competitor currently in the course to finish.
A bell chimed, signifying that the last guy had made it through, finishing his run. Finn gave me a pat on the back, a sign that I should get ready to get in there.
“Remember to pace yourself, you know, you can’t run through this behemoth in 20 seconds. Slow and steady will win you the race.” Finn advised.
“Alrighty, next competitor!” The instructor bellowed, almost interrupting Finn’s advice. “Minek the Venlil? You ready?”
“As ready as I'll ever be, I guess.” I said, anticipation and nerves high.
I don’t necessarily like talking to people, particularly the ones I don’t know. Another aspect of why I felt like my home was better set on earth, rather than that sunside town where everyone just had to stop and get to know you. I’m not going back, even under the threat of annihilation, like what nearly happened to all of earth’s inhabitants.
“Make ready, put your hands on the door, your run starts once the timer beeps. If the lights turn red, stop your run immediately, make clear, holster your weapon. Understood?”
“Understood.” I replied.
I seated a new magazine into my pistol, racked the slide, holstered it, and placed my hands on the door. Here was my time to shine, I guess.
“Shooter ready? Standby…”
The moment of silence between the announcer’s callout and the timer’s beep felt like a small eternity.
BEEP!
I popped the door open as quickly as I could, took a high-ready stance, and began steadily advancing through the entrance hallway. There was a door on the left, as I entered it, I see a target standing both behind a target and a hostage. I'm forced to take my time lining up the headshot, KRAK, the target fragments into digital fragments. Another target to the right of it, slam a round through its torso. Move on, 2 targets behind a barricade, one no shoot. Take out both targets swiftly, then take a peek around the next corner. At the last moment, I spot a somewhat hidden cranny in the course right after the hallway, on my left. I backpedal, swing the pistol around the corner, and plant a round square through the chest of a target that was hiding within.
Now actually going down the hallway, there’s another hallway on the right, and a T-junction at the very end. The hallway on the right has 2 targets right next to each other, shoot and no-shoot. I take this quickly, they aren’t overlapped or anything special, just next to each other. I nearly missed because I was still moving when I shot, I needed to take more time lining up, no way I could keep getting this lucky. Left side of the junction has a shoot target, the right side has another hallway to the left of it. The rest of the floor was mostly the same, sending rounds through targets and reloading once, much like the rest of the course, right up until the end of the floor.
I rounded a corner partially blocked by a non-target, to see a small shooting gallery within the killhouse, and a door on the opposite side of the entrance. I have to clear the targets before the door will open, as instructed by the label on it. Two small, circular holograms appear before my eyes, roughly in the middle of the room. Two pops later, my magazine has run out. I haven’t even gotten through my (slightly) practiced reload, when another set of targets appear on the left side of the room. The surprise of more targets caused me to fumble slightly, tapping the magazine against the bottom of the grip. I slap the magazine back into its rightful place within my pistol, tap for good measure, drop the slide, pop the targets. The door remains still, so there are more targets to hit, I reckon. They happened to appear right I thought of them, one close and to the left, the other far and to the right. This forces me to swing my aim across the room, and I nearly missed a target again, barely clipping the right edge of the far target.
Too close, me. Too close. I somehow haven’t missed a target yet, and I intend to keep it that way.
The door finally opened, so I made my way through, and made my way up the stairs that followed the door. At the top of the stairs stood a target peeking over. Almost reflexively, I was steadily advancing past the target, without stopping I put the barrel to the target’s face, then fired. 2 rounds remaining in the magazine. The left side had a familiar set of targets similar to the little practice house. A set of closet like rooms, filled with a couple of shoot and no shoot targets. Bang, round the next corner, bang and a clack. Empty, reload, don’t fumble it this time, another target around the corner, bang.
The next few hallways were similar to the rest, a no shoot around a corner, a shoot target sitting opposite that, then I saw something I hadn't seen earlier. A direction marking on the floor, telling me to walk past the door, to a piece of half-height cover leading into an incredibly long (for this type of scenario) hallway. At the end was a hostage type target, held in such a way that you had to either hit the slightly poking out head, or the very exposed leg sitting out to the right of the target.
I take a bracing pose against the left side of the wall, on the corner. It took me a moment to line it up properly, but I sent a round flying through my target’s lower thigh, causing it to stumble out of line with the hostage, the hostage remaining exactly in its position. That’s interesting, I didn’t know the targets were dynamic like that. I had been “killing” them with direct chest or headshots for every shot that I had hit, so I had never gotten a chance to see these targets actually do their dynamic animations before. I’ll have to ask how that works later. I finished the target off with a nice shot to the chest, after it had fallen to the floor, crippled due to its leg injury. The target fragmented as the holographic display was pierced by my round, double confirming that these targets were still projections.
The door to my left had opened with a clunk a moment after I had shot the target for the second time. I preformed more of the same clearing maneuvers and shooting of targets. A pair of these targets happened to line up, almost perfectly for a collateral shot. I took aim against the target further to the rear, my round propelling itself toward the target with its aim true. It took a path where I thought it would destroy both the near and far target with the same shot, however, the bullet only grazed the first hologram, causing it to stumble backward with its dynamic system. Despite not killing the first target, it still smacked against the rear target with a standard killing shot, fragmenting into its hundreds of red shards that I had become accustomed to.
Advancing further into the labyrinth, I swiftly finished off the wounded target that had stumbled backward into a corner. Just to the right of the target, a sign on the wall pointed me downward, telling me to crawl through a claustrophobic, vent-like passage, about [2 feet] tall. I read the sign, dropped to the floor, and slid down through the little hole in the wall. Out the left of the hole, a target stood waiting for whatever round I planned on giving him, out in the open.
I wonder…
I approached the target, pistol held like a little baton. With as much force as I could for good measure, I slapped the target with the pistol.
Whiff
Seems I was wrong. I place my aim onto the target that I had unsuccessfully slapped, fired, then went to move on. Another target was in a little closet behind it, so I spun around to shoot that one too. This killhouse seemed to span for an eternity, and I thought I must be nearing the end of it soon.
Round the corner, no-shoot target, keep going around the U shaped hallway, another no-shoot target in the middle of the hallway. Pass it by, another bend in the wall, with a shoot target just beyond it. I go to fire my weapon, and…
Click.
The slide is open.
That isn’t supposed to happen, I had 3 rounds left in the magazine!
I take a quick inspection of my gun, a casing got stuck in the chamber, and now was blocking up the entire gun’s mechanism. I had been taught what to do in this situation, the malfunction being called a “double feed,” which could occur more frequently if your gun ran older ammunition, which mine did.
I followed the standard jam-clearing procedure for a double feed, which was to first lock the slide to the rear, remove the magazine, drop the slide and rack again to remove the stuck casing, reinsert the magazine, then rack the slide again to seat a new round. With my jam now cleared, I shot the target in front of me in the face, destroying it instantly. Around the corner sat another set of targets, 2 of them I had to shoot.
I get my aim steady on the first, fire, target destroyed. The slide locked back, alerting me to my state of being out of ammo. I reach for another fresh magazine, and come back empty handed.
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK
I was completely out of ammo, and making good time up until now.
Melee won’t work, I had just figured that out, I'm out of magazines so I can’t reload even if I needed to, which I certainly did.
AHA!
I had accidentally let the stuck round fall out with the magazine while I was removing it from the gun, so now it was sitting on the floor. I dive over to it, grab the lonesome round off the floor, and carefully insert the round into the chamber of my pistol. This was a technique that you weren’t exactly supposed to do often, as it wears out the extractor much faster, leading to more frequent issues if it’s done too often. I drop the slide, letting the final round I had to my name seat itself within the chamber, ready to fire.
BANG.
The target shattered, the door on my left clunking open to reveal the light of day, and a catwalk to a platform above the range. I walk out, and hear another voice call out.
“Show clear, then holster your weapon. Your time is…187.87 seconds, nice work in there. If you want, go watch from above from that catwalk, the next run’s boutta to start.”
I walked up the stairs, legs quite a bit more fatigued than I expected them to be, although I had just been speed-walking for 3 minutes straight, and my heart was beating faster than I expected, probably due to that moment of panic after having my gun just jam up on me, compounded by the fact that I totally ran out of ammo. I reached the top, took a seat in a nice spot near the edge of the small congregation of other competitors, waiting for Finn to come waltzing through the course. There was a display on the top of the roof, showing us an overlay of the first floor, which would also show us the second floor once the competitor got to the staircase.
A few minutes passed, and I wasn't paying attention to Finn's run, since a few people had asked for me to take pictures with them, which I reluctantly agreed to. I could barely hear it, but the end timer from earlier had spoke up again; “show clear, holster your weapon. Your time is… 178.92, fastest time yet, good stuff.”
I broke away from the group who were trying to ask me questions to meet my friend at the top of the stairs, who acknowledged my completion with a firm ‘high five’, a human gesture I had been taught over my time with him.
“Phew, nice little course, huh Mick?” Finn offered.
“Yea… It was fun, albeit tiring.” I responded, with a tail wag
“I’d bet, worse stamina especially. Anyway, how’d ya do?”
“Slightly worse than you, 187 seconds.”
Wow! Nice, uhm, that’s actually really impressive for someone who’s never done this kinda thing before, how’d ya manage that?”
“Might be because I only ever had to hit the targets once, except for that really long range one, with the hostage?”
“Yea I know the one, tricky bastard to hit without clipping the hostage.”
“Did you know those targets are reactive? Actually yea, you probably do because you volunteer here, right?”
“Yep, I'm guessing that’s how you figured out they are? Shot em’ in the leg so he’d stumble? That’s the easiest way to do it, i reckon, but just moving to the right edge to line up an easier headshot is the more advantageous way to do it.”
“Yea that’s what I figured out. Oh, after that there was one kinda standing out in a hallway that I tried to hit with my pistol, didn’t do anything but since that one actually fell over earlier I was wondering if I could save the ammo, why didn’t hitting it work?”
“If you were actually in a situation where you were running around a big ol’ building trying to murder combatants inside to rescue hostages, do you think you would have the ability to whack someone in the face hard enough to outright kill them instantly? No, no you probably wouldn’t. The target impact system only tracks bullets anyway, punches or strikes don’t move fast enough to register on the system.”
“Oh, interesting. Say, how do the holograms work?”
“No clue, all I know is it has something to do with laser projectors and some weird illusions, then it has motion detectors tuned to a specific zone in space for tracking hits, quite interesting stuff if I do say so myself, even if I don't know how it works.”
“Yea, it is,” I said, not exactly registering what was said, “anyway, I think we should go figure out what the next event is, I don’t want to go into it blind like I would have if you hadn’t made me try the little version first.”
“Alright, follow me then.” Finn said, then began walking down the catwalk, leading me to our next event of the day, which I had been informed was a “long range vintage” event.
We made our way back over to the range we were at before, now situated with targets much further out than the aim trainer I had been using earlier. There were large signs, telling me distance next to little plates with concentric rings around a point in the middle. Finn walked back over to his car, pulled out a rifle box, and came back over to me.
"Ah, the wonders of long range shooting! You ready to learn about physics?" Finn exclaimed, clearly excited.
"No, not really, why do you ask?"
"Long range shooting, and especially extreme range shooting need a lot of little physics calculations for you to actually be able to hit the target from so far away. Bullets are little more than projectiles thrown at high velocity, but there's still things like gravity, wind, and sometimes even the fuckin' Coriolis effect to worry about while your round is flying!"
"Wait, you have to worry about the rotation of the planet while shooting long range? That's insane!"
"I know, right? that's why I love this stuff!"
The next [20 or 30 minutes] were taken up by a lengthy explanation of how a bullet flies, how a spotter and shooter system functions, how a spotter scope works, how to interpret what the spotter says, the list goes on. This had continued until the whistle blasted again, alerting us of another announcement.
"Everyone come over to the podium, we're having an awards ceremony! Be here in 5 minutes or we start without you, if you aren't already over here!" the voice of the instructor from earlier rang out. Finn and I went over to the podium, where a few boxes labeled 1, 2, and 3 resided.
The ceremony went well, apparently I had gotten third place, Finn got second, and someone who had ran after both of us got first.
After the ceremony, we were each handed a box of differing sizes, the winner got a certificate for a free rifle, Finn got a new 'plate carrier', a thing that was made to hold armor and magazines, and I got a pair of cargo pants.
I walked over to the little station they had set up nearby, got a few measurements taken, then was handed an (admittedly very fancy) pair of pants, clearly set up for humans instead of venlil.
Thankfully, I didn't have to modify them so I could wear them, there was already a little bit of a notch in the top of the beltline that let it comfortably sit just below my tail.
Another announcement came on soon after I got my new pants; "Next event starts in one hour, get some practice in before that, you might need it."
[First] [Previous] [Next (coming soon)]
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Author's note: This one took a lot longer than the other ones, although it's released in a shorter time frame, how ironic, i guess? I'm considering making a prologue to the story, probably during the exchange program, if I do, it will also help give some more context to Mick that I tried to expand on with this one.
I hope you enjoyed it, expect the next one... eventually.
Oh, and sorry about any walls of text, that was me trying to fill in to hit my self imposed 3000 word count, and also me not knowing how to effectively write "move, shoot, move again" about 20 times in a row.
2023.05.28 00:41 Shot-Percentage-621 Sell my business at 24 yo, or keep growing it?
If this is not allowed, please remove. Using throwaway account.
I am looking for some advice on whether or not I should sell my business in the next 6-12 months, or spend the next 4-5 years growing it.
For some background, I am a 24 years old and live in a MCOL city in the US. My current net worth (not including my business) is approximately $1 million with the following breakdown:
I started my B2B service business in early 2021, and it’s on track this year to net about $600K. At this point, I am pretty hands-off, and I have built a great team. My goal from the beginning was to sell this business. I have spoken with a couple of brokers who both think I could sell for around $2 million.
If I loved the work, then it would be a no-brainer to continue to grow/scale the business. However, I’m finding myself disinterested with the work, and I have many other business ideas I would like to take on. In other words, I’m not jumping out of bed each morning.
My question is this: should I sell the business for $2 million, bringing my post-tax net worth to approx. $2.5 million, to work on something new? Or should I scale this business? I have many other interests, and definitely don’t want to do this forever, but perhaps a few more years is worth it.
Thank you for taking the time to read this and any advice would be really appreciated.
Edit: I realize I should have added a few pieces of information. When I say I am “pretty hands-off,” I mean that I am working about 10-15 hrs/week. Also, I would say the business has a 10-20% chance of being disrupted by AI over the next couple of years. I definitely do not totally hate the work, but it’s just not the most exciting. Thank you all for your insight!
submitted by Shot-Percentage-621 to fatFIRE [link] [comments]
I am looking for some advice on whether or not I should sell my business in the next 6-12 months, or spend the next 4-5 years growing it.
For some background, I am a 24 years old and live in a MCOL city in the US. My current net worth (not including my business) is approximately $1 million with the following breakdown:
- $550K brokerage account
- $100K cash
- $400K (conservative) my share of an LLC owning multi-family real estate.
I started my B2B service business in early 2021, and it’s on track this year to net about $600K. At this point, I am pretty hands-off, and I have built a great team. My goal from the beginning was to sell this business. I have spoken with a couple of brokers who both think I could sell for around $2 million.
If I loved the work, then it would be a no-brainer to continue to grow/scale the business. However, I’m finding myself disinterested with the work, and I have many other business ideas I would like to take on. In other words, I’m not jumping out of bed each morning.
My question is this: should I sell the business for $2 million, bringing my post-tax net worth to approx. $2.5 million, to work on something new? Or should I scale this business? I have many other interests, and definitely don’t want to do this forever, but perhaps a few more years is worth it.
Thank you for taking the time to read this and any advice would be really appreciated.
Edit: I realize I should have added a few pieces of information. When I say I am “pretty hands-off,” I mean that I am working about 10-15 hrs/week. Also, I would say the business has a 10-20% chance of being disrupted by AI over the next couple of years. I definitely do not totally hate the work, but it’s just not the most exciting. Thank you all for your insight!
2023.05.27 18:26 viewless25 Defending the Draft 2023: New York Jets
”Short” recap of the Jets' 2022 Season
The Jets had a noisy offseason in 2022 as they were big spenders in free agency, bringing in CB DJ Reed, TE CJ Uzomah, and OG Laken Tomlinson. The also had 3 first round picks and an early second rounder to give the team one of the youngest roster in the NFL by snaps given. The main headline going into the Jets regular season was, like most NFL teams, centered around the quarterback position. The Jets drafted BYU QB Zach Wilson #2 overall in the 2021 NFL draft. Statistically, Zach's rookie campaign was off to an abysmal start with 4 TDs and 9 picks in his first Five starts before having his midseason interrupted by a knee injury. Zach would return and threw 5 touchdowns and just two picks in his last seven games, playing less dynamically than he had in Tennessee but smarter and safer. Zach went into the 2022 season looking to improve on his 2,334 yards passing, 55.6% completion percentage, 9 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions from 2022.However, Zach would miss September due to a miniscus tear he suffered in the preseason. The Jets started Joe Flacco at the quarterback position for their opening three games; going 1-2 with a historical comeback win at Cleveland (I didn't have to mention this but it's the most exciting Jets football you'll ever see). After Zach returned, the Jets opened out on a winning streak. However, this had more to do with the star performances of the Jets rookies, namely WR Garrett Wilson, RB Breece Hall, and CB Sauce Gardner. In Denver, the Jets suffered a pyrrhic victory at hands of the Broncos as the team won 16-9, but suffered season ending injuries to OL Alijah Vera-Tucker and Breece Hall. Hindering the offensive line and prematurely ending Hall's OROTY campaign. This altered the course of the Jets' season for the worse. While young stars Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner continued to shine, the team's offense couldn't make up for the loss of Breece Hall as they were forced to look to Zach Wilson to lead the passing offense. Zach Wilson regressed heavily from his already terrible rookie season and as a result of his poor performance and attitude, was benched. The Jets attempted to salvage their season by looking to Mike White, who almost immediately went out with injury, and then later to Flacco (and at one point, Chris Streveler, fresh out of the CFL). Only two seasons into Wilson's career, he's cemented himself among the greatest draft busts in NFL history and for the sake of playefan morale, is completely unplayable in 2023. He isn't going to be cut until at least August, as there's no financial incentive to give up on him until after next season. The Jets missed out on the playoffs in 2023 for the 12th straight season, the second longest drought in North American sports. The silver lining for the Jets this season is that their roster is still full of young talent across the board, as AVT should be back by the preseason, Breece Hall should be back in the early regular season this year, and Garret Wilson and Sauce Gardner are back for their sophomore seasons after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the year, respectively. The Jets had very little coaching staff/front office turnover from 2022. The main exception is the Jets moved on from young offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur to sign veteran OC and recently fired Denver Broncos' head coach, Nathaniel Hackett. This move was met with middling reception by fans. As many cited him as an underwhelming retread, though there was potentially one huge upside to signing Hackett and his name is...
Aaron Freaking Rodgers
After acknowledging his failure in drafting and developing his franchise QB, New York Jets General Manager Joe Douglas, scrambled to find a QB the Jets can compete with during their current window where their most talented players are on rookie deals. Joe Douglas doesn’t have the luxury of trying again with rookie QB roulette as he’s already four years into a rebuild that has yielded zero winning seasons. Many considered his huge failure with Zach Wilson to be a fireable offense, but due to his success in building the rest of the team, Jets owner Woody Johnson publicly voiced his confidence in Joe Douglas and let him have another offseason to try to pull a rabbit out of his hat at the QB position. The Jets were connected to almost every veteran QB that might conceivably be on the market from January to March. Around the time of the NFL Combine, the Jets had their options narrowed down to Tannehil, Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers headlining the group. With Rodgers’ ending his career in Green Bay, he then descended into a Darkness Retreat. Afterward, Aaron decided to tell Schefter to lose his number and went on the Mcafee show to announce that he had decided to play for the Jets, despite still being on contract with the Packers. After a month and a half of Jets and Packers fans taking to Reddit and Twitter to argue endlessly about Leverage, the Jets and Packers finally worked out a deal on April 24th, just days before the 2023 NFL Draft. The Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers and a 5th round pick in 2023 in exchange for a 1st round pick swap (Jets go 13 to 15th overall), a 2023 2nd round pick, a 2023 6th round pick, and a 2024 second round pick that can become a 1st if Rodgers plays >65% of snaps in 2023. Many were quick to declare an immediate winner to the trade, though I think with trades like these, you need to see how things play out and what will happen on the conditions before knowing for sure. My knee-jerk reaction to the trade is that it’s an overpay if Rodgers were to retire after 2023, but if he comes back for 2024 like he says he’s going to, then this is fair overall. If Jordan Love doesn’t pan out and the Jets make a Super Bowl over the next two years, people will look back on this trade as a steal for the Jets. Time will tell.Jets Free Agency
Contrary to popular belief, the Jets did more this offseason than roll out the red carpet for Aaron Rodgers. In free agency, the Jets rolled out the red carpet for all of Aaron Rodger’s favorite teammates. In Free Agency, the Jets brought in:- WR Mecole Hardman (KC)
- WR Allen Lazard (GB)
- OL Trystan Colon (BAL)
- OL Billy Turner (DEN)
- P Thomas Morestead (MIA)
- C Wes Schweitzer (WAS)
- QB Tim Boyle (DET)
- DT Quinton Jefferson (SEA)
- LB Quincy Williams
- K Greg Zuerlin
- DT Solomon Thomas
- RB Ty Johnson
- C Connor McGovern
The New York Jets 2023 NFL Draft
Pre-Draft Needs
Positions of Need going into the Draft: OT, FS, DT, RBThe Jets' strength on the defense was on the outsides, both on the passrush with Carl Lawson and Jermaine Johnson coming back and in the pass defense, with Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed returning after being arguably the best CB duo in 2022. The weakness was over the middle in the passing game and between the tackles in the run game. The Jets have Quinnen Williams on the 5th year option looking for a new deal this year and don't have another quality DT to complement him on the interior of their 4-3 front. Jordan Whitehead was disappointing for the Jets last year at SS and Ashtyn Davis hasn't fully panned out at FS.
On the offense, the Jets have fewer holes, but have positions like RB, TE, and WR where they can afford to add more talent. The biggest liabilities for the Jets are on the offensive tackle, where Mekhi Becton is coming back from two whole seasons of injury and Duane Brown is 38 and playing likely his last season of Pro Football.
1st Round (15th Overall) Will McDonald IV, EDGE – Iowa State
Before discussing McDonald as a player, we should discuss the Steelers’ trade with the Patriots at 14th overall. This trade led to a lot of criticism of the trade back with Green Bay for Rodgers as well as Joe Douglas’s composure as a drafter. The main thing we know about Broderick Jones is that the fact that Pittsburgh was interested in trading up for him long before the Rodgers trade. Jones to the Steelers was one of the worst kept secrets of the NFL draft this year and the New England Patriots (while not to pretend that Belichick doesn’t love to screw the Jets over) are notorious for trading back in the first round. I’m not going to assert that the Jets weren’t interested in landing Broderick Jones, I think the people who are skeptical of Douglas’s claim that McDonald was their top target are missing two things: the first is that Robert Saleh is a defensive minded coach who is obsessed with having an excess of edge rushers with good bend. Saleh and Douglas are still on good terms, and I would be very surprised if during the draft Saleh wasn’t pounding the table in Joe Douglas’s ear for Will McDonald. The second is that while Jones was on board, Douglas himself said that McDonald was his number 1. You can debate if the Jets should’ve taken Jones if he were available, but he wasn’t and so, the Jets picked McDonald. Will McDonald is a 6’4” 236 lbs Edge rusher from Iowa State University who turns 24 years old June 6th. He was considered a high draft prospect after his 2021 and 2020 seasons where he had 11.5 and 10.5 sacks respectively, but still decided to come back to school in 2022. This, plus the fact that he didn’t begin playing football until he was 17 years old, contribute to Will McDonald IV’s advanced age as a prospect. Some might have called this pick a reach due to his age, but it’s worth noting that McDonald isn’t exactly a “late bloomer” as a player, but rather he has been a competitive pass rusher in the Big 12 since about 2019 and is tied for #1 overall in the Big12’s career sack list. Another reason why Will McDonald IV is an underrated prospect is that many people aren’t familiar with the defense that Iowa St. and how it deflates pass rusher numbers. Iowa State runs something called a STAR defense, or a 3-3-5 (3 DL, 3LB, 5 DBs). This helped the Cyclones against pass heavy, air raid and/or spread style offenses, but means that a premier pass rusher like Will McDonald will get basically zero help in the box. The traits that scouts fell in love with that made Will McDonald IV a first-round talent were his bend around the edge, his top end speed, and his usage of his hands. The weaknesses that were brought up centered mostly around his smaller size, power, and lack of body of work on run defense. But his overall athleticism and potential to bulk up are the main thing the Jets are banking on as they look develop him going forward. McDonald’s athleticism is so over the top, that he’s made a hobby of jumping over cars and doing other acrobatics that will keep the Jets management up at night if he keeps it up through his rookie contract.The main thing to understand when watching McDonald as a prospect is that the Jets are going to play him a lot differently than the Cyclones did. Due to the ISU 3-man front, McDonald was often moved inside if he wasn’t double or triple teamed as a 5 tech. When Robert Saleh called Will McDonald to let him know the Jets were drafting him, Saleh said “We’re getting you out of that 4i and into that Wide 9”. That meaning, that instead of playing him between the guard and the tackle, they’re going to put him as far out as the o-line is built. I think the Jets will try to get him standing up; even though they typically have four defensive linemen down as I trust Robert Saleh to not pigeonhole a guy to a set role and will just try to set him up to succeed as a pass rusher. The important thing to remember when evaluating McDonald’s upcoming rookie season (or Jermaine Johnson’s rookie season from 2022), is that the Jets have a religious dedication to cycling their defensive linemen in and out regardless of how well or poorly they’re playing. So, for young players like McDonald, Johnson, and Michael Clemons, they’re guaranteed to get a shot, but even if they succeed, they’ll get cycled out. But this does mean that in 2023, we’re guaranteed a chance to see the speed and shiftiness that Will McDonald IV will be bringing to the Jets defense for years to come.
2nd Round, 12th pick (43rd Overall) Joe Tippmann, C – Wisconsin
After the first night of the draft, most were shocked over the Jets’ selection of Will McDonald. And many more in Jets land were disappointed that the team couldn’t find any offensive line help for newly acquired QB, Aaron Rodgers. Fortunately for the Jets on night 2, the board broke their way positively, unlike on night 1. With most of the premier tackles off the board, the Jets then turned their attention interior offensive line. The Jets re-signed Connor McGovern to a 1 year $1.915 million deal after the main rush of free agency subsided and McGovern was unable to find a better deal. McGovern was a serviceable Center for the Jets on his previous 3 year deal, but at 30, the Jets are starting to look for long term options with higher upside. With McGovern making barely backup Center money, the Jets had basically no assets committed to the center position. With every center in the 2023 NFL draft on the board, I don’t think I need to do as much defending of the positional choice for center as I had to do for Edge rusher in the first round. The Jets selected Joe Tippmann with the 12th pick of the 2nd round. The Wisconsin Badger is one of the taller Centers we’ve seen at 6’6” (not including the mullet) and 313 lbs. However, Tippmann has shown on film that he’s able to get low off the snap off the height and in the later block can leverage his size. He had the highest athleticism score at his position (which is going to be a consistent theme for the Jets in this draft). He started his last two full seasons at Wisconsin, shining as a run blocker and allowed only on sack and five pressures over 338 pass blocking snaps. His strengths coming out of Wisconsin are his fluid movement and rotation, his high football IQ, and his size. His main weakness is his sense of balance and his high point of contact. Some might have questioned why the Jets chose Tippmann over John Michael-Schmitz and, while I would’ve been happy with either, I personally believe the Jets made the slightly better choice in banking on a player who is younger, bigger, healthier, and possibly has higher upside. The Jets have been looking for the heir apparent to Nick Mangold since he’s retired. While McGovern was a serviceable stop gap for the last three years and will get a chance to compete with Tippmann this summer, I believe this pick is a great chance for the Jets to find a new leader of their offensive line for years to come. The Jets are at their best in their franchise history when they have a Center with leadership, strength, and durability to support the offense.4th Round, Pick 18 (120th Overall) Carter Warren, OT – Pittsburgh
In 2022, the New York Jets offensive line was a revolving door as the offensive line was decimated by injuries before they even started the regular season. They were able to mitigate these issues for the first few weeks of the season by deploying Alijah Vera-Tucker as a Swiss Army Offensive Lineman, but when he suffered a season ending injury, that had to come to an end. In this offseason, the Jets didn’t add many players who will contend for starting positions at guard or tackle in 2023, but Joe Douglas has made a point to bolster the depth at these positions so they’re better prepared for when Mekhi Becton, who hasn’t played a full game since mid 2020, or the 38 year old Duane Brown get injured.To prepare for this, the Jets picked New Jersey native Carter Warren in the fourth round out of Pittsburgh. With his 7 foot wingspan, core strength, and leadership experience, Warren has the traits of a prototypical NFL Tackle. Carter Warren’s athleticism graded highly at the combine at the workouts he performed despite not being 100% from his shoulder injury. He fell to the fourth round in the draft as expected due to his season ending injury in 2022 and his overall lack of power and ability to sustain blocks for longer drives. The Jets are looking for Carter Warren to develop into a capable swing tackle or high end backup LT. The team is possibly still banking on Becton serving as the long term starting Left Tackle, but we’ll sort that out when training camp gets here. With veteran Billy Turner on the team and second year Maxx Mitchell returning as a swing tackle, the Jets are hopeful that they won’t rely on a rookie tackle in 2023. But if they do, Carter Warren has the traits needed to keep the offense on schedule when injuries inevitably come.
5th Round Pick, Pick 8 (#143rd Overall) Israel Abanikanda, RB – Pittsburgh
After selecting the Pittsburgh Panther from New Jersey in the fourth round, the Jets elected to take his teammate, RB Israel Abanikanda from Brooklyn, with the very next pick. In the last two years the Jets have brought in a lot of young runningbacks from the draft such as Michael Carter, Breece Hall, and Zonovan Knight. The Jets running back room looked like it was on the road to being elite after Breece Hall’s early career breakout before his tragic season ending injury. Breece Hall had emerged as a physical, downhill runner for the Jets and Michael Carter and Bam Knight were capable change of pace backs, pass blockers, and receiving backs. Breece Hall is going to go back to being the Jets premier runningback if he comes back to be 100% of what he was last year, even with Abanikanda on the roster. But what the Jets were lacking, even with Hall on the roster last year, was a shiftier, higher end speed running back that can break open in space. Hall checks off a lot of these boxes, but did so by being more physical over the middle. In 2022, Izzy Abanikanda’s stats were impressive. He reached 100 yards rushing in 9 out of his 11 games and rushed for 20 TDs on the season. With Hall, Izzy can be a dangerous lightning to Breece Hall’s thunder as the Jets look to round out their offense. Izzy’s athleticism is (say it with me now: ) really good. He ranked 5th out of running backs in this draft despite being a 5th round pick. The biggest weakness commonly cited about Izzy Abanikanda is his pass protection. This has been a recent focus on running backs in the NFL and something that will likely limit Izzy’s day one impact. But the Jets can keep things simple on the offense and just focus on getting the ball of playmakers like Abanikanda. The most exciting thing about Abanikanda is that he’s young, not turning 21 until October 5th of this year (making him born in 2002, if you wanted to feel old today). Abanikanda is an extremely speedy player with home run ability. The value in the 5th round is great for the Jets here and they are now hedged against a key RB injury like they suffered last year. This pick may spell trouble for fans of Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight (apologies to /DynastyFF), but it puts the Jets in a position to be dynamic in the ground game to capitalize on defenses thinking they can afford to sell out against the Aaron Rodgers-led passing offense.6th Round, Pick 7 (184th Overall) Zaire Barnes, LB – Western Michigan
Getting later into the draft, the Jets start to look for roleplayers and positions where the team is light. Zaire Barnes fills both of these criteria with his special teams experience and coverage linebacker experience. The Jets have Quincy Williams and CJ Mosely playing in the box to handle secondary running coverage. The team may still bring back Kwon Alexander to return as the WILL linebacker in space, but the Jets are looking to bolster their coverage over the middle. The Jets have arguably the best cornerback duo on the outside with DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner and a capable slot corner with Michael Carter II. This means that most of the teams that threw the ball on the Jets did so over the middle.At Western Michigan, Barnes lined up close to the line of scrimmage and focused mostly on man coverage. In order for him to unlock his potential and make this pick a steal, he needs to unlock his ability to use lateral movement to help in zone coverage. At 6’1” his height is unremarkable but more than adequate for a linebacker within the box. If Zaire Barnes can make himself valuable on special team and take advantage of the opportunities to make a play in coverage over the middle or to make an impact in the run game where the Jets are also light, Zaire Barnes will be able to be a part of this Jets team for a long time.
Round 6, Pick 27 (#204th Overall) Jarrick Bernard-Converse, DB – LSU
In writing Bernard-Converse’s position on the headliner, I opted to just write DB, as he’s played all over the secondary. Looking at JBC’s skillset and the holes the Jets have in their roster, it would seem Bernard-Converse’s best outlook on the Jets is to move to the Safety position. With good tackling ability, high athleticism, and four years of starting experience at the Power 5 level, the Jets are banking on Bernard-Converse’s ability to adapt to a new role as opposed to being a true CB. In coverage at LSU, he did have some issues letting players get behind him due to his ability to trail and backpedal, another sign that he’s likely better suited for the safety role. With Jarrick Bernard-Converse, the Jets are banking on his adaptability and Robert Saleh’s ability to develop a player with raw talent into a contributor on the backend.Round 7, Pick 3 (#220th Overall) Zack Kuntz, TE – Old Dominion
The Jets have looked to rebuild their TE room after years of it being in disarray. Unfortunately, the group that Douglas has put together, CJ Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, and Jeremy Ruckert, didn’t quite pan out in 2023. Part of this was on the quarterback play, but part of this is that the tight ends on the Jets didn’t quite have the plus abilities the team needed to get production from their Tight Ends. This is just the beginning of why Zack Kuntz is an exciting pick for the Jets. Kuntz (pronounced KOONTS, unless you’re Australian) was primarily a receiving tight end for Penn State and Old Dominion in college. At 6’8” 255lbs, Kuntz has more than the prototypical size of a blocking Y tight end, but he instead spent his college career using his 4.55 speed to be a menace over the middle. His most productive season was only 692 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, which is a bit less for the insane athleticism that a speedy and shifty tight end such as Kuntz possesses. Still, it’s hard to imagine how 32 GMs looked at Kuntz and decided over 200 times that they don’t need this freak of nature on their team. The Jets may look into developing his blocking a bit more, but I think they’re probably more excited by refining his hands and getting him over the middle to create some size mismatch. With Zach Kuntz elite size and speed, he’s truly a menace with the ball in his hands.UDFA Rapid Fire
The Jets traded back in the 6th round at a pretty heavy loss. I believe this is because they wanted special teams and depth and were relatively satisfied with most of the starters they had going into the NFL draft. So, the Jets will likely not have a ton of contributions from UDFAs this year. Here are the 13 players the Jets have currently signed as UDFAs and I’ll highlight a few of the ones I think I have a chance at making the 53 man roster below:- Jason Brownlee, WR Southern Mississippi: Despite receiving a combine invite and showing a good vertical and 40 yard dash, Brownlee ends up unsigned on the Jets. I think the Jets will look to leverage his athleticism on special teams, as most of the WRs on the roster have little experience/interest in playing special teams.
- Trey Dean, Safety Florida: A former starter as a freshman for the Gators in 2017, he’s got a lot of experience. As mentioned earlier, both safety positions are weakspots on the Jets roster, so a safety with Dean’s experience might be able to stick on.
- Deslin Alexandre, DL Pittsburgh: Joe Douglas sure does love his Pittsburgh guys. Deslin played as an edge rusher in college, but went undrafted due to weak bend (which is an important trait in an EDGE rusher, as I’m sure you can imagine). Still, a player with his size could still be a valuable Defensive Tackle in a 4-3 defense such as the Jets’. The main thing for Alexandre will be improving his run defense, as that’s currently a sore spot for the Jets DL.
53 Man Roster Projection
| POS | 1st String | 2nd String | |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | Tim Boyle | Zach Wilson |
| RB | Breece Hall | Israel Abanikanda | Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | Corey Davis | Mecole Hardman |
| WR | Allen Lazard | Randall Cobb | Jason Brownlee |
| TE | Tyler Conklin | CJ Uzomah | Jeremy Ruckert |
| LT | Duane Brown | Warren Carter | |
| RT | Mekhi Becton | Maxx Mitchell | |
| LG | Laken Tomlinson | Wes Schweitzer | |
| RG | Alijah Vera-Tucker | Billy Turner | |
| C | Connor McGovern | Joe Tippmann | |
| DT | Quinnen Williams | Al Woods | |
| DT | John Franklin-Myers | Deslin Alexandre | |
| DE | Jermaine Johnson | Isaiah Mack | |
| DE | Carl Lawson | Michael Clemons | Solomon Thomas |
| ILB | CJ Mosely | ||
| OLB | Quincy Williams | Bryce Huff | |
| OLB | Will McDonald IV | Zaire Barnes | |
| CB | Sauce Gardner | Michael Carter II | Brandin Echols |
| CB | DJ Reed | Bryce Hall | Javelin Guidry |
| FS | Ashtyn Davis | Jarrick Berndard-Converse | |
| SS | Jordan Whitehead | Justin Hardee | Chuck Clark |
| K | Greg Zuerlein | ||
| P | Thomas Morstead | ||
| LS | Thomas Hennessy |
Notes on 53 man roster
- Yes, the front seven is a complete mess. The Jets move guys around so much that even trying to delineate between a LB or a DE can be difficult. This is a rough guesstimation of what players will make the final roster, not necessarily where they’ll play.
- The NFL has a new rule that allows teams to carry 3 QBs and still be under the 53 man roster. So that's why you may count 54 on this.
- I only did this with players currently either on contract or drafted by the Jets. I think Kwon Alexander will eventually sign but for now, he’s not on here.
- I really wanted to find a spot for Zach Kuntz, but it was tough since there’s a lot of dedicated money to TEs. I thought maybe we could cut Randall Cobb, but we’ll see.
Final Thoughts
This offseason will be remembered as the offseason where the Jets made a huge swing for a future Hall of Fame QB. It’s impossible for me to try to put this draft class up against that. But the Jets got a lot of athleticism in this draft that can set them up to be competitive in the long term. It was surprising that they traded back, seeing as they’re in a win now mode, still. I think the Jets got 2 or 3 starters from this draft, likely some combination of Abanikanda, Tippmann, and McDonald. Certain players like Warren and Kuntz do have some longer term potential, too. Nothing will ever touch Joe Douglas’s 2022 draft class, but I thought this class was solid and built a lot of overdue depth. Still, when July rolls around and it’s time for camp, it’s going to be the QB that all Jets fans are looking at.2023.05.27 18:25 LithiumNard A Random Fan's Team/Player Breakdown and Predictions Going into LPL Summer 2023
LPL Summer Power Rankings
Just one person’s opinion. WE diehard so I’ve seen more or less all of their games, but I’ll catch other games here and there. Did a lot of Oracle’s Elixir and Leaguepedia digging as well and followed/consulted @DJJohnnymeister on twitter (must follow IMHO if you care at all about the up and comers of the LDL) for thoughts on lower-level prospects. Will probably make me look stupid when it’s all said and done, but that’s part of the fun right?
Top Contenders
1) JDG
Top – 369
Jungle – Kanavi
Mid – Knight/lzq
ADC – Ruler
Support – Missing
Was the best team on paper last split and lived up to the hype. Coming off of a dominant MSI championship run, they are the slam dunk pick to top not just the LPL power rankings, but the World power rankings.
369 is perhaps the best he’s ever been, easily 1st team All Pro. Kanavi has re-established himself as the best jungler in the world at MSI. Knight’s mechanical talent finally shone through on the international stage. Lzq is an 18-year-old who somehow skipped the LDL altogether and isn’t really relevant to the narrative, but he's on the official roster so I have to mention him. Ruler inserted his name in the GOAT conversation and proved his mettle out of the Samsung/GenG sphere, doing his thing of blending solid damage output with consistent safety. When Missing is the worst player on the team by default and yet still the Spring 2nd All Pro Team support you’re in golden shape.
They get a sentence each because I shouldn’t need to tell you about this team. They’re really just complete without any exploitable holes. Adding Knight and Ruler to China’s best squad in 2022 feels similar to the off-season where the Golden State Warriors added Kevin Durant, with the added bonus that Boogie Cousins is still in his prime. I suppose that makes Yagao into Pro LOL’s Harrison Barnes (I actually like this comparison, down to Yagao receiving blame for the blowing it when it mattered most) and GenG into Pro LOL’s Sacramento Kings (pretty bad, but if we equate the playoffs to making world finals?… ehh still really bad). We’ll see who (if anyone) can rise up to challenge them, but at this point they have to be considered the odds-on favorite.
2) LNG
Top – Zika
Jungle – Tarzan
Mid – Scout
ADC – GALA
Support – Hang
This team had one hole in the roster going into the summer and filled it. LP didn’t have a bad rookie split and showed mettle but he was clearly the odd man out on a team built to compete today. After looking at IG’s ADC Ahn, they chose to spare no expense and traded LP and a boat load of cash for RNG’s GALA who more than fills that hole. GALA will be paired in the bottom lane with Hang, who was a key partner for LP’s surprisingly competent debut, earning an All-LPL 3rd team shoutout in the process.
Scout meanwhile had a downright incredible split that fell by the wayside due to LNG’s immediate playoff exit at the hands of OMG, but it appears that even away from the EDG machine, he’s still one of the LPL’s premier stars at a very competitive position. I mean he put up a mind numbing 17 MVPs individually. To put it in perspective, ThunderTalk Gaming, who were the 8 seed in the LPL Spring Standings, had 18 wins in total. With teams like EDG and JDG sharing the MVP load among their members, Scout downright ran away with it.
Zika didn’t have a super flashy split, but was low key very strong. The team devoted a lot to making sure LP wasn’t exploited and you would think Zika, who was heavily strong-side suited as a rookie on IG last year, would flounder because of it. However, he quietly flourished in the role, even though he only picked up a single MVP performance all season. Putting up strong CS numbers and showing some good weakside ability on top of his typical array of more damage centric tops. Honestly, he might be the most underrated player in the league since he’s overshadowed by his much more resource heavy teammates, but that weakside ability might be even more key with GALA joining the team and needing the resources as well.
Tarzan meanwhile continued as a standout in the regular season, best jungler KDA, strong kill participation basically the rest of the regular season MVP performances, but was perhaps the primary factor in their playoff disappointment. Similar to JDG’s situation with Missing though, when Tarzan (specifically in the playoffs) is the team’s biggest concern, you know you have a roster ready to compete.
3) EDG
Top – Ale
Jungle – Jiejie/Monki
Mid – Fofo/Fisher
ADC – Leave
Support – Meiko
Despite losing their key Korean carries, EDG barely missed a beat last split, finishing 3rd in the Spring Split. It’s a pretty good result all things considered, but it does feel like they have holes in their game. Still, I think that between their core veterans still at the peak of their game and the overall consistency, they are in very good shape for the Worlds slots, even if they feel a step behind the likes of JDG right now.
Even without Scout and Viper, they still have a great veteran core that starts with Meiko, who with Ming’s absence/retirement(?) stands alone as only active LPL’s all-time top 10 support. As part of the EDG core for over 9 years now, and the team’s primary shot caller for a huge part of that span, his presence alone means that EDG will have one of the best macro games in the league. Combo that with Jiejie, who has served in the EDG system for a huge period of time and grown into a top level jungler in his midst of his prime and you immediately have a team that has championship aspirations even before the other 3 members are considered, as both players were 1st Team All Pro for the Spring Split.
The 3 other members were where a lot of the concern lied going into the season, but they exceeded expectations as EDG was the number 2 seed going into playoffs. While the least talked about of the three, it was a great bounce back split for FoFo who was one of the most disappointing players on 2022’s most disappointing team BLG, eventually losing his starting job to mid-season acquisition Icon. On EDG though, he looked revitalized and fairly close to his form on RA 2021, though admittedly he was flanked by better players with EDG. It was a commendable, low drama, stable split for a player who needed it bad.
Similar to FoFo, Ale was coming off of a rough 2021 as well where a talented by troubled LNG team didn’t completely flop by the results, but completely missed the high expectations set. This included a benching for PandaC halfway through the split that really hurt the team in key series down the stretch amid talk about attitude issues. He’s always been a talented pair of hands though and EDG did well to keep him focused and on his game, as he stepped up big time, particularly when given non-tank champions while piloting tanks well enough, earning 2nd team All Pro honors. Obviously, Ale isn’t always the most stable player, but so long as EDG has him on the straight and narrow, he’s going to be a net positive for the team.
Finally, we come to the rookie of the split Leave, who came in with some serious LDL hype and lived up to it for the most part, working well as EDG’s damage carry and showing a flashy mechanics style. Being flanked with the likes of Meiko helps of course, but EDG handed the reigns to Leave and he seemed up to the task. Unfortunately, going up against the likes of Ruler and Elk in the playoffs did prove to be that freshman wall for Leave, but as MSI showed they’ve been folding everyone, so it’s not too shameful. Still as the least experienced player in this top 4 group, it’s going to be a lot of pressure on the youngster. It’s crazy that this super mechanically skilled star of his rookie class could be the weakness of the team, but that’s just the level of the competition among the top teams of this league.
I do want to give brief mention to EDG’s substitute players, who are both very talented youngsters. Monki is a 19-year-old LDL promote jungler who was strong at the lower level and warranted a promotion. Fisher meanwhile had been a standout Korean trainee from Shadow Corp (the same team they picked up About, the new Korean bot lane trainee Ale was talking about) and directly went onto the EDG main roster at 18 years old. Neither will likely see play given this team’s veteran tilt and the championship ambitions, but they’re worth keeping an eye out for down the road whether they’re future EDG starters or purchases for other LPL teams.
4) BLG
Top – Bin
Jungle – XUN
Mid – Yagao
ADC – Elk/Baiye
Support – ON
Given BLG’s penchant for big expenses for early playoff exits, it would be easy to write off their latest roster as yet another flailing attempt to microwave a team into stardom, turning over basically the entire 2022 roster they reportedly spent top dollar for. And yet, it felt different this time around. While the players they picked up weren’t exactly household names, they were talented mechanical players on the rise. They looked genuinely strong in the pre-season tournaments, which admittedly doesn’t count a whole ton, but was interesting to note. And when it was all said and done, it resulted in the best split BLG has ever put up. And while they couldn’t outgun the JDG machine in any of the many shots, it was a great season. While I have them below LNG for their sheer top to bottom power and EDG out of respect for their veteran track record, I’m still very impressed by this BLG squad.
Bin, as somehow the longest tenured BLG member of 2 splits, was the face of the team’s turnaround, and a far cry better from the rocky 2022 he endured swapping between 2 dysfunctional teams. 2023 was where he re-established himself as the premier mechanical top in the league. Always known for his excellent hands since his debut on Suning in 2020, he was able to back up those skills this split, while furthering his profile in the west with his fun trashtalk and gigachad persona. Furthermore, when the chips were down at MSI, he even showed a willingness to pick up tanks, which has always been the clear hole in his game.
As for the free agent additions, the one who most established himself was Elk. If I can put on my hipster hat on, I was an Elk fan before it was cool, given he’s always shown an ability to put up eyepopping damage numbers since his debut which continued this season as he topped the tables far and away leading the league with the number 1 DPM and damage share. However, it was the finer points of the game where Elk struggled on back in the day. Off positioning, hit or miss laning, occasional overextensions trying to maximize damage were all issues for Elk on WE. On this BLG squad though, that has largely ironed itself out, with only occasional blowup performances every so often. An unknown on the World stage going into MSI, everyone now knows the name of this fearsome player. They also added a name that nobody knows, that being Baiye an LDL ADC to the main roster as well. Having just debuted on BLG.J last split and playing all of 7 games in the LDL, it’s tough to take this promotion seriously at all, let alone as a threat to Elk’s seat.
A major part of supporting Elk’s rise was the acquisition of the best young support in the LPL, ON. One of the big pain points of LPL teams is that LDL promotions are just so difficult, and none so more than support, where the talent pool is shallow and the transition is just an absolute killer. So many of the highest profile LDL supports have floundered on promotion, and ON was no exception on Suning back in 2021. That being said, he’s improved an incredible amount since that first rocky season, and the mechanical ability he has as a support and his young age (only 20 years old despite debuting in 2021) makes him perhaps the most valuable long-term asset on the BLG roster. As EDG has shown with Meiko and his cavalcade of ADC pairings, great ADCs can be acquired in the LPL but great supports when kept are backbones to long term success.
XUN was an acquisition much like Elk and ON, a young mechanical standout who BLG scooped up with projection in mind. He arrived into IG in 2021 as a highly touted rookie, and was mentioned alongside the likes of Bo and Xiaohuangren, the 2 super prospects junglers as the next generation. He joined right at the tail end of the Rookie-TheShy era of the team and while he had early struggles then, by the time the next season rolled around, he was IG’s standout player. Even after arriving at BLG, he’s still a very volatile player, and hasn’t solidified his play the way Elk and ON have, but at his best, he’s capable of getting bot rolling, which is exactly what BLG is want to do.
Finally, the Harrison Barnes of the LPL, Yagao, who was the typical blame target for BLG in their losses. It’s true, he’s older and certainly doesn’t match up great against the top of the table mids that he’ll need to beat, but the bottom line is that for the most part he’s fine enough. Just like Barnes, he’s certainly not the team centerpiece, and he occasionally has baffling performances, but he’s usually stable enough to not get in the way. Honestly, he’s probably the weakest individual player among these top 4 teams and the predominant reason (along with coinflippy XUN) that I have the MSI runners up 4th on this list, but to be clear I’m not huge Yagao hater, it’s just that these top teams are so stacked that every potential available weakness makes a difference. I mean, you don’t see Harrison Barnes on the All-NBA teams or anything.
Playoff Expectations
5) OMG
Top – Shanji
Jungle – Aki
Mid – Creme
ADC – Able
Support – PPGod/Jerry
OMG returns with the roster that brought them to their highest playoff finish since Spring 2017 (!!!), finishing a highly impressive 4th in the split. On paper, I still think their roster is lacking in marquee raw talent, but it’s clear at this point that they’re more coordinated than some of their flashier opposition and that they’ve cultivated 2 young stars that have now shown some serious killer instinct.
Without any doubt, this is a team that is defined by the play of their solo lane talents. Starting from the top Shanji had a standout split primarily as one of the most effective K’Sante/Sion tank players the large majority of the time, but occasionally busts out Kennen and his signature Rumble, and been incredibly impactful when he gets them. Furthermore, this synergizes perfectly with OMG’s other star laner Creme, who is afforded the ability to fit AD assassins like Yone. Assassins have continued to be Creme’s calling card and while his control mage play is lackluster, OMG has tailored their gameplans around his champion pool and have reaped the benefits of the young mid laner.
On top of these two really clicking simultaneously, a big hat tip must be given to their teammates as well. PPGod in particular proved to be the right ingredient to bring OMG playoff glory as he continues his ability to accent teams into playoff threats even if he hasn’t been quite been able to reach the Finals at any of his stops. I’ll give him some additional props once we reach the NIP write up. Given PPGod’s late arrival to the team last spring, LDL promotion Jerry sat on the bench for the season, and looks to do so again. Able meanwhile has a pretty non-descript year, taking a back seat to his solo lane teammates but showing some stability that he’s usually lacked. Certainly not a masterful split, but credit where it’s due, he reigned it in and was steady for OMG’s best squad in ages.
Finally, Aki deserves a big hand for his role in OMG’s success as well. A solid vet who isn’t considered a mechanical master by any means, he was steady at the wheel throughout the season, and was even able to out jungle Tarzan of all people in their shock upset win over LNG. Despite taking the most MVPs for OMG in the regular season, it was rarely for single handed domination and I’d point that more as a credit for his facilitation of the team’s coordination in general where they were able to get over the competition where it counted.
I don’t think this team has the ceiling of the others in this tier, but they have a known formula that works. While the others in this group have more talent on an individual level, it’s clear that they have serious questions to sort out that OMG really doesn’t, so I’m considering OMG the safe team in this particular group, but without the upside to challenge the tier above.
6) WBG
Top – TheShy
Jungle – Karsa/Weiwei
Mid – Xiaohu
ADC – Light
Support – Crisp
This team and the one after it were the teams with close to the highest expectations in the League and yet fell flat in spite of talented rosters. Both have largely decided to run it back, with new coaching staffs in an attempt to fix the tactical side where they came short. WBG went big game hunting for their next coach after sacking Easyhoon and was attempting to court Kkoma before he opted to focus on Korea’s efforts at the World Games. They settled for an Kkoma adjacent coach in Daeny, formerly part of the Damwon and T1 programs. A controversial coach in his own right, he’s drew criticism for his pick/bans and his questionable roster decisions, but he still has that Worlds title under his belt, so WBG is out here shooting for the moon. Born to wintrade or whatever.
TheShy is as always, a pretty good representation of the team. Perpetually on top of the damage charts due to his confidence in his mechanics and his propensity to fight constantly, it leads to the coinflippy hit or miss results you so often see from TheShy and his teams in general. He’s certainly not at his peak form where he dominated on the Worlds stage, but he’s not at his worst either near the end of his IG tenure when that whole team looked out of gas, TheShy is an LPL icon, even if that icon is occasionally the death notification on the side of the UI.
Purchasing Xiaohu out of his RNG contract was one of the big stories for this team going into the off season and a large reason for optimism for their future results. In actually he was rather middling by all accounts. Not a total disaster of course, it felt like he was fine for the most part, but not the immediate plug and play mechanical players that Scout, Knight or Rookie serve as. Maybe a second season to mesh is what they need to comeback.
Light for my money was the most dependable member of the team in the regular season, being just a generally stable force in the otherwise chaotic team structure. I wouldn’t call him the best at any individual thing: Ruler is a much safer ADC and Elk is a better pure damage pump, but light is good enough at both of those things to be a consistent plus for WBG, which can’t be said for the rest of the team. Supported by the veteran Crisp, you have to expect them to anchor the team in general, though Crisp was particularly bad in the playoff series against BLG, where his hooks on both Thresh and Naut were off point. It’s just one series of course, but the play needs to be better than that in crunch time next time.
Finally, the jungle situation for Weibo. Karsa continues to be the perpetual punching bag when the team struggles. It’s been a major decline since his Flash Wolves and early RNG days and frankly it might be time to just bucket him as not able to get it done at the highest level at this point. He can still work enough in the regular season to make the playoffs, but the form is just not where it needs to be at this point. In a fascinating move, scooped up Weiwei, who went from BLG’s star jungler to league washout over the course of a single year. The biggest victim of BLG’s 2022 catastrophe, the last look of Weiwei we got was not a flattering one as the team fell flat on it’s face amid roster instability and play not matching up to the expected standard. Still, we’ve seen a number of comebacks for players leaving the BLG ecosystem, such as PPGod and FoFo returning to form after splitting wit the team. Of course it’s not always a winning formula as Doggo and Biubiu (shudder) can attest to, but there’s enough of a strong track record from Weiwei during 2020 V5 and 2021 BLG to say that trying to get that level out of him is worth the attempt.
7) TES
Top – Wayward/Qingtian
Jungle – Tian
Mid – Rookie
ADC – Jackeylove
Support – Mark
Reuniting 2/5ths of the legendary IG core was supposed to lead TES to their Worlds destiny. Yet going into the Summer split they are another team running it back with the exact same roster, though unlike teams like JDG, BLG or OMG, the Spring split was an unmitigated failure for TES. There was not glory, but a collapse down the stretch of the season and shameful defeat at the hands of OMG, a team that is probably running a budget less than Jackeylove’s individual paycheck (note: The previous statement was hyperbole. I do not actually know how much OMG pays their players.) With some of the flashiest names in the LPL, finishing without at least challenging JDG would have been a disappointment, let alone the 7th/8th that they actually managed.
The big obvious question for this team is what exactly they do with the top lane because the decision making around it was seemed heavily stilted. They chose to run Qingtian basically the entire regular season, and then yanked the rug on him with a single series to go? Sure, he was largely a hit or miss top laner who was missing against the better teams (and LGD’s because rookie Xiaoxu was feeling it) but pulling the plug on him and swapping to Wayward literally at the last second heavily sabotaged both of them. Congratulations, Wayward crushed Biubiu in round 1 of playoffs, like basically everyone else who played top lane in the LPL. Up against Shanji (a player TES bypassed as a rookie to pick up Qingtian), Wayward was not up to it, and it was a big part of what ended their season. Even though both top laners are limited, I find it hard to place the blame on them directly given this awkward setup and how they approach top lane in the Summer with both players still on the roster remains to be seen.
The bot lane continues to be the same story as always. Jackeylove is still super high ceiling but there are still sometimes these baffling efforts where he’s playing off of his game, which has been a repeating trend for a while now. Mark did well to stabilize him at the beginning of their shared tenure but it’s been rough going as of late for this bot lane in general.
Moving to the big free agent swap they made, adding the legendary Rookie to the team, and it wasn’t all bad. It’s not like he was an abject disaster, he had his share of good games, such as dominating against Shanks in the first round of the playoffs, it’s just that there were too many series where he didn’t lift the team when things weren’t clicking elsewhere… like the 2nd round against OMG. It felt like too often he wasn’t meshing with Tian who was also off his normally solid domestic game. People joke that it was his Worlds performance showing up and frankly, I’d have to agree.
I don’t know with this team. The on-paper talent is on there as usual but there’s something missing… Normally with teams, the question is: how can this team coordinate together and be more than the sum of their parts, which OMG showcased best? I don’t get that vibe from TES, where the question I’m asking is: do they feel like playing up to their talent, or are they going to let go of the rope and lose in shocking fashion? Just weird vibes. I’d say maybe the coaching swap could help, but bringing in the guy who was overseeing BLG during their moneybag disappointment era doesn’t fill me with confidence. I still think they still should be fine for the playoffs off of their sheer talent running over enough teams when they do hold it together, but I just don’t see them as a viable challenger for the LPL crown unless something flips in them, particularly given how good the top 4 seem.
Playoff Bubble
8) TT
Top- HOYA
Jungle – Beichuan/xiaohuangren
Mid – Ucal
ADC – Huanfeng/1xn
Support – yuyanjia/Yaoyao
A pleasant surprise last split, making their first LPL playoffs since they were known as Sinodragon, TT has shed their bottom feeder status and actually have some breakout potential. They’ve formed a decent core to build off of and collected some of the most exciting young talents in the league. How they split their starts between the young guns and the vets they played last split is quietly one of the most interesting storylines in the league as those talented swing pieces could push them up into contendership or down out of the playoffs depending on how they handle the LPL stage.
We’ll start with the boring part of the team in their now solidified Korean solo lane pairing, HOYA and Ucal. After spinning solo laners basically their entire existence, the duo has been locked in for basically 4 splits now. Neither blow anyone’s socks off (though I maintain Ucal in particular is pretty underrated), but you know you’re gonna get a playoff worthy performance but not much more. Together they provide the solid foundation for the rest of the roster, where it really gets interesting.
Starting with jungle, Beichuan had effective but flawed split. He output damage well and did much to incite action, but he also died a whole ton, with the highest death share of any jungler in the league last split. This volatility has been his modus operandi this TT squad as he manages to lead TT in MVPs and I’m sure would have also led the team had an “Most Un-valuable Player” award been given to the biggest inter on the losing team, so he’s pretty core to the TT identity as they’re constructed. However, the clearly more intriguing option has to be Xiaohuangren, who is likely the youngest player in the league right now, and the most hyped LDL jungler since Bo. Debuting in LDL at just 16, XHR was immediately one of the best mechanical junglers in the lower level, and even when the age limit was placed, he took to dominating the Korean ladder with multiple accounts in his excess time. Promoted in the middle of the Spring split days after he turned 18, he hasn’t seen a stage since that age limit was placed, but eyes will be watching to see if TT put the hyper-talent on the rift.
Their other young hyper-talent TT acquired is at the ADC position where they are bringing JDG’s LDL bot laner 1xn. Highly touted by LDL experts, 1xn doesn’t have a mechanical flaw to speak of, putting out insane damage and CS numbers on the regular. The one thing to note was that the JDM team surrounding him didn’t have the skills to back him up, so he never really got the accolades his performance deserved. How he splits time with Huanfeng, who was pretty ineffective last season, and just clearly is no longer the do-everything ADC we saw at 2020 Worlds with Suning is the other big question. It’s weird to see him morph into a rather conservative low-risk low-reward player, and honestly, if they gave out a “Least Valuable Player” award to the winning team, he’d probably be the among League’s leaders in that sketchy credential.
Finally, the support situation is less exciting but lowkey just as important as the other 2 positions as they’ve opted to add Yuyanjia to the roster to which I’m fairly confused. A lackluster veteran (25 years old?) who has never really helped a roster even at his “peak”, I’m not sure what he brings to the table for TT. It’s even more confusing since incumbent support Yaoyao has been the rare promoted LDL support who has actually looked good in his initial LPL stint, which is some sort of minor miracle given the typical LDL support struggles. Trying to fit XinLiu in last split probably cost them some series, so I’m not sure why they seem so interested in these mediocre at best support players when they have a solid one in hand.
9) WE
Top – Cube/Demon
Jungle – Heng
Mid – Shanks
ADC – Hope
Support – Iwandy
I see WE as the LPL’s gatekeeper team. Last split they were great against the lower ranked teams (exception AL), and awful against the higher ranked teams (exception BLG) and managed to sneak playoffs thanks to the likes of IG being just a bit more volatile. I’m sure I’ll have more to say about them as the season goes on, so I’ll keep things brief here.
They managed to do this with an essential deadweight in the top lane. Cube doesn’t completely alter the equation for WE, as he’s coming off of his worst split to date where he was largely stuck on tank duty, but he does turns the top lane for WE from being a ceiling capper into a floor raiser for the team. Worst case is that he continues his middling tank form and he serves as a rich man’s Biubiu who can actually lane competently. The best-case scenario is that the change of scenery (where he was on RA for 4 years) works to revitalize him towards more of the damage top lane champs he played in his earlier years. Either way, the best part of this addition is really the subtraction of Biubiu, which adds much needed flexibility to a team that desperately needs it. Meanwhile, Demon also augments the team’s flexibility by adding his skills of doing promotional videos when Chinese New Year rolls around. So yeah, you can say this is a much-improved top lane situation.
Otherwise, the team remains the same as their gatekeeper-selves. Iwandy quietly had a very solid season as WE’s most consistent player and a foundation as a support. Hope had a mid-season swoon that showed his deficiencies particular as a laner and on less focused champions, but was able to showcase his carrying skills as the season concluded. Both are what they are: usually net positives for a team, but not really able to take you to a top 6 seed independently. That is going to have to come from their teammates, speaking of which…
Heng was up and down as a rookie jungler, but for the most part demonstrated a willingness to be proactive and facilitate his lanes via early ganks, even if it didn’t always work out as planned. And of course, Shanks who had his best regular season to date, relying on consistently strong lane performances. While capitalizing on those leads remains a hit or miss affair and a particular bad playoff series against TES are marks against him, I still have those high expectations for him and continue to see this as a prove it year. Outside of Cube unlocking something additional, which shouldn’t be counted on, this jungle-mid pair are the key for WE to climb higher than the lower playoff spots. Both are usually strong early, but they’ll need to clean up their mid/late game play for the team to be a contender against higher caliber teams.
10) IG
Top – YSKM/neny
Jungle – Tianzhen
Mid – Cryin/Dove
ADC – Xiaoyueji/Ahn
Support – Wink
Putting IG too low was a big miss for me in Spring and despite narrowly missing out on playoffs and making some pretty major roster changes, they do make sense as a team as a whole to the point where I can see them in playoff contention.
YSKM was the breakout player for them, as his mechanical prowess was legit right out of the gate though I do think he’s a tad overrated as his DPM isn’t as high as you would expect for a player that almost exclusively plays damage top laners. You have to assume he starts over neny who is just perpetually going to be on this roster as a break in case of emergency/illness weakside player.
Their other returning player is Wink, who has proven to be a successfully above average support and revitalized his career in the process after floundering at ADC for IG. Wink is reunited with his former mid laner Cryin, as both were teammates on a Estar team that vastly exceeded expectations on their debut year. While being the low econ mid laner in a Xiaohu-GALA centric RNG didn’t flatter his talents, Cryin had a pretty good year all things as UP’s best player last season, and he’ll get another shot this year. The expectation is he starts over Dove who is still on the roster? He wasn’t awful but was certainly less exciting than his jungle counterpart and I assumed he would be leaving along with GIDEON and the Korean coaching staff.
This is Xiaoyueji’s second shot at the big leagues given he was tried and passed by Ahn last season, but he’s coming off of an LDL Season MVP where he was clearly above the lower level. We’ll need to see if he can step up with the tougher competition ala Photic, or if he’s just a quadruple-A player (too good for LDL, not good enough for LPL) like Asura. It might not even matter though as it’s worth noting that Ahn remains on the roster, even after the promotion of XYJ and a tryout from LNG (who clearly have contending in mind). He’s coming off of a quietly strong split and likely has the inside track in the battle for the starting role as in a repeat of LPL Spring 2022, these 2 will duke it out for the spot again.
Despite not being the LDL MVP, Tianzhen might be the more exciting prospect actually and notably doesn’t have any veteran to compete with. At only 18 years old, he’s going to be one of the LPL’s youngest players and has an eclectic champ pool that is highlighted by his signature Rengar. It will be interesting to see if these LDL standouts can continue the momentum in the LPL. The promotion isn’t easy, but both of them are in position to excel.
11) RNG
Top – Breathe
Jungle – Wei
Mid – Tangyuan
ADC – LP
Support – LvMao/Lele
It’s crazy to think this time last year, RNG were celebrating their 2nd consecutive MSI championship. Obviously, this team has more or less completely shattered from the Golden Road-seeking team that once ruled Spring and faltered at Worlds on a regular basis. I mean it’s been years of speculation that RNG was actually in a NA-esque perpetual financial meltdown that was held together by unfair streaming contracts and bobby pins, but with the departure of GALA and in particular, Ming, who has more or less been on RNG since the start of the era, finally puts RNG on the backfoot. Still, even with the exodus of more or less everyone on those famous teams, there’s a window at the playoffs.
Wei is the final piece of the MSI 2022 team, which is wild to think about because as I mentioned, it's been just 1 year. Now the longest tenured player on the roster, it’s a weird situation as there’s no longer an obvious lane to play into. While he wasn’t always bad, he had many questionable moments and his weakest split to date, and now without GALA in the bot lane there’s no clear place to focus for this team. He’s demonstrated he can be effective without the likes of Xiaohu, GALA and Ming back when he was on EStar in his debut season in 2020, but it’s been a long time since then, so I suppose we’ll have to wait and see.
Similarly, Breathe is also coming off of a split where he failed to meet expectations. It feels like ever since he left WE, he just hasn’t really found his footing as the good flex top laner, first on that weird 2022 BLG failed “superteam” and then on RNG where he never fit in to the Xiaohu-GALA puzzle. This last split he was basically relegated to weakside tanks and was subsequently pretty inconsequential as either a positive or negative factor. The few forays he took towards more carry champions were bad last split and it’s not a great sign for a player once considered so promising. I guess it’s the WE fan in me talking that he still has that upside to be among the best in the league. Maybe I’m lending him too much leeway given he was maybe WE’s best strongside top ever (which for the record is more about WE perpetually playing bot-centric). With out any of those other major carries on RNG, I’m interested to see if Breathe is placed back in that role.
The rest of the team is a smattering of cobbled pieces who aren’t without upside, but don’t exactly scream playoffs. GALA was exchanged for a large bag of cash and LP, who was the only consistent starter of the new cohort. he was heavily cared for as the rookie bot laner on LNG’s otherwise star-studded group, he was able to deliver in that capacity. Notably, he narrowly had the 2nd highest DPM in the split, though admittedly there was a large gap between 1st place damage monster Elk and a much smaller one to the following ADCs of JackeyLove, Assum and Leave. However, he certainly wasn’t perfect as he managed the lowest CS per minute among ADCs in the league, and he didn’t wow the way rookie of the split Leave did. Still, it was a relatively promising start, though the downgrade from Hang to one of RNG’s supports looms large as needless to say, the “cash considerations” RNG received with LP are most likely not being used for his lane partner.
With Angel departing after a pretty rough split, where the highlight was creating a meme after defeating his former team Weibo Gaming, RNG were rumored for a number of domestic mid laners but ultimately just stuck with the player they seemed intent on before they picked up Angel at the last second. Tangyuan is an LDL promote who has been flatout bad in the few stage performances he got in with the main roster, struggling both in the pre-season Demacia Cup and then to open the proper LPL season while Angel got up to speed. He’s at least known to have good Korean solo queue ranks, but you have to imagine there’s going to be a lot of handwringing over his inevitable growing pains as he starts for one of the country’s most popular domestic teams. There’s not zero upside here, for example Xiaoxu came from the same LDL team and vastly overperformed expectations, but I’d lean towards a year of hard knocks for the youngster.
Ming’s departure is the biggest loss for RNG as they now go from one of the rare franchise defining supports to… not that. LvMao spent the split unsigned for the most part before latching onto BLG as ON’s backup to end the season. Reportedly he served a coaching-esque role for the team as they went on their impressive MSI run but LvMao’s play has left a lot to be desired. Now with over 3 years removed from his standout performances in Spring 2020 and no Bard patch coming in sight, it’s tough to see what LvMao brings to the table as a player outside of an experienced hand. The other option they brought in was Lele, the young rookie support FPX promptly benched for Qiuqiu, which is never a great sign, and you know my stance on LDL supports: they bad. Funnily enough Lele was originally a pretty hyped RNG prospect the team once spent 300K yuan signing out of the yearly rookie camp. Needless to say, he’s been an okay LDL support but hasn’t lived up to that price tag at all, though now it seems they could at least get some games out of their failed investment.
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Just one person’s opinion. WE diehard so I’ve seen more or less all of their games, but I’ll catch other games here and there. Did a lot of Oracle’s Elixir and Leaguepedia digging as well and followed/consulted @DJJohnnymeister on twitter (must follow IMHO if you care at all about the up and comers of the LDL) for thoughts on lower-level prospects. Will probably make me look stupid when it’s all said and done, but that’s part of the fun right?
Top Contenders
1) JDG
Top – 369
Jungle – Kanavi
Mid – Knight/lzq
ADC – Ruler
Support – Missing
Was the best team on paper last split and lived up to the hype. Coming off of a dominant MSI championship run, they are the slam dunk pick to top not just the LPL power rankings, but the World power rankings.
369 is perhaps the best he’s ever been, easily 1st team All Pro. Kanavi has re-established himself as the best jungler in the world at MSI. Knight’s mechanical talent finally shone through on the international stage. Lzq is an 18-year-old who somehow skipped the LDL altogether and isn’t really relevant to the narrative, but he's on the official roster so I have to mention him. Ruler inserted his name in the GOAT conversation and proved his mettle out of the Samsung/GenG sphere, doing his thing of blending solid damage output with consistent safety. When Missing is the worst player on the team by default and yet still the Spring 2nd All Pro Team support you’re in golden shape.
They get a sentence each because I shouldn’t need to tell you about this team. They’re really just complete without any exploitable holes. Adding Knight and Ruler to China’s best squad in 2022 feels similar to the off-season where the Golden State Warriors added Kevin Durant, with the added bonus that Boogie Cousins is still in his prime. I suppose that makes Yagao into Pro LOL’s Harrison Barnes (I actually like this comparison, down to Yagao receiving blame for the blowing it when it mattered most) and GenG into Pro LOL’s Sacramento Kings (pretty bad, but if we equate the playoffs to making world finals?… ehh still really bad). We’ll see who (if anyone) can rise up to challenge them, but at this point they have to be considered the odds-on favorite.
2) LNG
Top – Zika
Jungle – Tarzan
Mid – Scout
ADC – GALA
Support – Hang
This team had one hole in the roster going into the summer and filled it. LP didn’t have a bad rookie split and showed mettle but he was clearly the odd man out on a team built to compete today. After looking at IG’s ADC Ahn, they chose to spare no expense and traded LP and a boat load of cash for RNG’s GALA who more than fills that hole. GALA will be paired in the bottom lane with Hang, who was a key partner for LP’s surprisingly competent debut, earning an All-LPL 3rd team shoutout in the process.
Scout meanwhile had a downright incredible split that fell by the wayside due to LNG’s immediate playoff exit at the hands of OMG, but it appears that even away from the EDG machine, he’s still one of the LPL’s premier stars at a very competitive position. I mean he put up a mind numbing 17 MVPs individually. To put it in perspective, ThunderTalk Gaming, who were the 8 seed in the LPL Spring Standings, had 18 wins in total. With teams like EDG and JDG sharing the MVP load among their members, Scout downright ran away with it.
Zika didn’t have a super flashy split, but was low key very strong. The team devoted a lot to making sure LP wasn’t exploited and you would think Zika, who was heavily strong-side suited as a rookie on IG last year, would flounder because of it. However, he quietly flourished in the role, even though he only picked up a single MVP performance all season. Putting up strong CS numbers and showing some good weakside ability on top of his typical array of more damage centric tops. Honestly, he might be the most underrated player in the league since he’s overshadowed by his much more resource heavy teammates, but that weakside ability might be even more key with GALA joining the team and needing the resources as well.
Tarzan meanwhile continued as a standout in the regular season, best jungler KDA, strong kill participation basically the rest of the regular season MVP performances, but was perhaps the primary factor in their playoff disappointment. Similar to JDG’s situation with Missing though, when Tarzan (specifically in the playoffs) is the team’s biggest concern, you know you have a roster ready to compete.
3) EDG
Top – Ale
Jungle – Jiejie/Monki
Mid – Fofo/Fisher
ADC – Leave
Support – Meiko
Despite losing their key Korean carries, EDG barely missed a beat last split, finishing 3rd in the Spring Split. It’s a pretty good result all things considered, but it does feel like they have holes in their game. Still, I think that between their core veterans still at the peak of their game and the overall consistency, they are in very good shape for the Worlds slots, even if they feel a step behind the likes of JDG right now.
Even without Scout and Viper, they still have a great veteran core that starts with Meiko, who with Ming’s absence/retirement(?) stands alone as only active LPL’s all-time top 10 support. As part of the EDG core for over 9 years now, and the team’s primary shot caller for a huge part of that span, his presence alone means that EDG will have one of the best macro games in the league. Combo that with Jiejie, who has served in the EDG system for a huge period of time and grown into a top level jungler in his midst of his prime and you immediately have a team that has championship aspirations even before the other 3 members are considered, as both players were 1st Team All Pro for the Spring Split.
The 3 other members were where a lot of the concern lied going into the season, but they exceeded expectations as EDG was the number 2 seed going into playoffs. While the least talked about of the three, it was a great bounce back split for FoFo who was one of the most disappointing players on 2022’s most disappointing team BLG, eventually losing his starting job to mid-season acquisition Icon. On EDG though, he looked revitalized and fairly close to his form on RA 2021, though admittedly he was flanked by better players with EDG. It was a commendable, low drama, stable split for a player who needed it bad.
Similar to FoFo, Ale was coming off of a rough 2021 as well where a talented by troubled LNG team didn’t completely flop by the results, but completely missed the high expectations set. This included a benching for PandaC halfway through the split that really hurt the team in key series down the stretch amid talk about attitude issues. He’s always been a talented pair of hands though and EDG did well to keep him focused and on his game, as he stepped up big time, particularly when given non-tank champions while piloting tanks well enough, earning 2nd team All Pro honors. Obviously, Ale isn’t always the most stable player, but so long as EDG has him on the straight and narrow, he’s going to be a net positive for the team.
Finally, we come to the rookie of the split Leave, who came in with some serious LDL hype and lived up to it for the most part, working well as EDG’s damage carry and showing a flashy mechanics style. Being flanked with the likes of Meiko helps of course, but EDG handed the reigns to Leave and he seemed up to the task. Unfortunately, going up against the likes of Ruler and Elk in the playoffs did prove to be that freshman wall for Leave, but as MSI showed they’ve been folding everyone, so it’s not too shameful. Still as the least experienced player in this top 4 group, it’s going to be a lot of pressure on the youngster. It’s crazy that this super mechanically skilled star of his rookie class could be the weakness of the team, but that’s just the level of the competition among the top teams of this league.
I do want to give brief mention to EDG’s substitute players, who are both very talented youngsters. Monki is a 19-year-old LDL promote jungler who was strong at the lower level and warranted a promotion. Fisher meanwhile had been a standout Korean trainee from Shadow Corp (the same team they picked up About, the new Korean bot lane trainee Ale was talking about) and directly went onto the EDG main roster at 18 years old. Neither will likely see play given this team’s veteran tilt and the championship ambitions, but they’re worth keeping an eye out for down the road whether they’re future EDG starters or purchases for other LPL teams.
4) BLG
Top – Bin
Jungle – XUN
Mid – Yagao
ADC – Elk/Baiye
Support – ON
Given BLG’s penchant for big expenses for early playoff exits, it would be easy to write off their latest roster as yet another flailing attempt to microwave a team into stardom, turning over basically the entire 2022 roster they reportedly spent top dollar for. And yet, it felt different this time around. While the players they picked up weren’t exactly household names, they were talented mechanical players on the rise. They looked genuinely strong in the pre-season tournaments, which admittedly doesn’t count a whole ton, but was interesting to note. And when it was all said and done, it resulted in the best split BLG has ever put up. And while they couldn’t outgun the JDG machine in any of the many shots, it was a great season. While I have them below LNG for their sheer top to bottom power and EDG out of respect for their veteran track record, I’m still very impressed by this BLG squad.
Bin, as somehow the longest tenured BLG member of 2 splits, was the face of the team’s turnaround, and a far cry better from the rocky 2022 he endured swapping between 2 dysfunctional teams. 2023 was where he re-established himself as the premier mechanical top in the league. Always known for his excellent hands since his debut on Suning in 2020, he was able to back up those skills this split, while furthering his profile in the west with his fun trashtalk and gigachad persona. Furthermore, when the chips were down at MSI, he even showed a willingness to pick up tanks, which has always been the clear hole in his game.
As for the free agent additions, the one who most established himself was Elk. If I can put on my hipster hat on, I was an Elk fan before it was cool, given he’s always shown an ability to put up eyepopping damage numbers since his debut which continued this season as he topped the tables far and away leading the league with the number 1 DPM and damage share. However, it was the finer points of the game where Elk struggled on back in the day. Off positioning, hit or miss laning, occasional overextensions trying to maximize damage were all issues for Elk on WE. On this BLG squad though, that has largely ironed itself out, with only occasional blowup performances every so often. An unknown on the World stage going into MSI, everyone now knows the name of this fearsome player. They also added a name that nobody knows, that being Baiye an LDL ADC to the main roster as well. Having just debuted on BLG.J last split and playing all of 7 games in the LDL, it’s tough to take this promotion seriously at all, let alone as a threat to Elk’s seat.
A major part of supporting Elk’s rise was the acquisition of the best young support in the LPL, ON. One of the big pain points of LPL teams is that LDL promotions are just so difficult, and none so more than support, where the talent pool is shallow and the transition is just an absolute killer. So many of the highest profile LDL supports have floundered on promotion, and ON was no exception on Suning back in 2021. That being said, he’s improved an incredible amount since that first rocky season, and the mechanical ability he has as a support and his young age (only 20 years old despite debuting in 2021) makes him perhaps the most valuable long-term asset on the BLG roster. As EDG has shown with Meiko and his cavalcade of ADC pairings, great ADCs can be acquired in the LPL but great supports when kept are backbones to long term success.
XUN was an acquisition much like Elk and ON, a young mechanical standout who BLG scooped up with projection in mind. He arrived into IG in 2021 as a highly touted rookie, and was mentioned alongside the likes of Bo and Xiaohuangren, the 2 super prospects junglers as the next generation. He joined right at the tail end of the Rookie-TheShy era of the team and while he had early struggles then, by the time the next season rolled around, he was IG’s standout player. Even after arriving at BLG, he’s still a very volatile player, and hasn’t solidified his play the way Elk and ON have, but at his best, he’s capable of getting bot rolling, which is exactly what BLG is want to do.
Finally, the Harrison Barnes of the LPL, Yagao, who was the typical blame target for BLG in their losses. It’s true, he’s older and certainly doesn’t match up great against the top of the table mids that he’ll need to beat, but the bottom line is that for the most part he’s fine enough. Just like Barnes, he’s certainly not the team centerpiece, and he occasionally has baffling performances, but he’s usually stable enough to not get in the way. Honestly, he’s probably the weakest individual player among these top 4 teams and the predominant reason (along with coinflippy XUN) that I have the MSI runners up 4th on this list, but to be clear I’m not huge Yagao hater, it’s just that these top teams are so stacked that every potential available weakness makes a difference. I mean, you don’t see Harrison Barnes on the All-NBA teams or anything.
Playoff Expectations
5) OMG
Top – Shanji
Jungle – Aki
Mid – Creme
ADC – Able
Support – PPGod/Jerry
OMG returns with the roster that brought them to their highest playoff finish since Spring 2017 (!!!), finishing a highly impressive 4th in the split. On paper, I still think their roster is lacking in marquee raw talent, but it’s clear at this point that they’re more coordinated than some of their flashier opposition and that they’ve cultivated 2 young stars that have now shown some serious killer instinct.
Without any doubt, this is a team that is defined by the play of their solo lane talents. Starting from the top Shanji had a standout split primarily as one of the most effective K’Sante/Sion tank players the large majority of the time, but occasionally busts out Kennen and his signature Rumble, and been incredibly impactful when he gets them. Furthermore, this synergizes perfectly with OMG’s other star laner Creme, who is afforded the ability to fit AD assassins like Yone. Assassins have continued to be Creme’s calling card and while his control mage play is lackluster, OMG has tailored their gameplans around his champion pool and have reaped the benefits of the young mid laner.
On top of these two really clicking simultaneously, a big hat tip must be given to their teammates as well. PPGod in particular proved to be the right ingredient to bring OMG playoff glory as he continues his ability to accent teams into playoff threats even if he hasn’t been quite been able to reach the Finals at any of his stops. I’ll give him some additional props once we reach the NIP write up. Given PPGod’s late arrival to the team last spring, LDL promotion Jerry sat on the bench for the season, and looks to do so again. Able meanwhile has a pretty non-descript year, taking a back seat to his solo lane teammates but showing some stability that he’s usually lacked. Certainly not a masterful split, but credit where it’s due, he reigned it in and was steady for OMG’s best squad in ages.
Finally, Aki deserves a big hand for his role in OMG’s success as well. A solid vet who isn’t considered a mechanical master by any means, he was steady at the wheel throughout the season, and was even able to out jungle Tarzan of all people in their shock upset win over LNG. Despite taking the most MVPs for OMG in the regular season, it was rarely for single handed domination and I’d point that more as a credit for his facilitation of the team’s coordination in general where they were able to get over the competition where it counted.
I don’t think this team has the ceiling of the others in this tier, but they have a known formula that works. While the others in this group have more talent on an individual level, it’s clear that they have serious questions to sort out that OMG really doesn’t, so I’m considering OMG the safe team in this particular group, but without the upside to challenge the tier above.
6) WBG
Top – TheShy
Jungle – Karsa/Weiwei
Mid – Xiaohu
ADC – Light
Support – Crisp
This team and the one after it were the teams with close to the highest expectations in the League and yet fell flat in spite of talented rosters. Both have largely decided to run it back, with new coaching staffs in an attempt to fix the tactical side where they came short. WBG went big game hunting for their next coach after sacking Easyhoon and was attempting to court Kkoma before he opted to focus on Korea’s efforts at the World Games. They settled for an Kkoma adjacent coach in Daeny, formerly part of the Damwon and T1 programs. A controversial coach in his own right, he’s drew criticism for his pick/bans and his questionable roster decisions, but he still has that Worlds title under his belt, so WBG is out here shooting for the moon. Born to wintrade or whatever.
TheShy is as always, a pretty good representation of the team. Perpetually on top of the damage charts due to his confidence in his mechanics and his propensity to fight constantly, it leads to the coinflippy hit or miss results you so often see from TheShy and his teams in general. He’s certainly not at his peak form where he dominated on the Worlds stage, but he’s not at his worst either near the end of his IG tenure when that whole team looked out of gas, TheShy is an LPL icon, even if that icon is occasionally the death notification on the side of the UI.
Purchasing Xiaohu out of his RNG contract was one of the big stories for this team going into the off season and a large reason for optimism for their future results. In actually he was rather middling by all accounts. Not a total disaster of course, it felt like he was fine for the most part, but not the immediate plug and play mechanical players that Scout, Knight or Rookie serve as. Maybe a second season to mesh is what they need to comeback.
Light for my money was the most dependable member of the team in the regular season, being just a generally stable force in the otherwise chaotic team structure. I wouldn’t call him the best at any individual thing: Ruler is a much safer ADC and Elk is a better pure damage pump, but light is good enough at both of those things to be a consistent plus for WBG, which can’t be said for the rest of the team. Supported by the veteran Crisp, you have to expect them to anchor the team in general, though Crisp was particularly bad in the playoff series against BLG, where his hooks on both Thresh and Naut were off point. It’s just one series of course, but the play needs to be better than that in crunch time next time.
Finally, the jungle situation for Weibo. Karsa continues to be the perpetual punching bag when the team struggles. It’s been a major decline since his Flash Wolves and early RNG days and frankly it might be time to just bucket him as not able to get it done at the highest level at this point. He can still work enough in the regular season to make the playoffs, but the form is just not where it needs to be at this point. In a fascinating move, scooped up Weiwei, who went from BLG’s star jungler to league washout over the course of a single year. The biggest victim of BLG’s 2022 catastrophe, the last look of Weiwei we got was not a flattering one as the team fell flat on it’s face amid roster instability and play not matching up to the expected standard. Still, we’ve seen a number of comebacks for players leaving the BLG ecosystem, such as PPGod and FoFo returning to form after splitting wit the team. Of course it’s not always a winning formula as Doggo and Biubiu (shudder) can attest to, but there’s enough of a strong track record from Weiwei during 2020 V5 and 2021 BLG to say that trying to get that level out of him is worth the attempt.
7) TES
Top – Wayward/Qingtian
Jungle – Tian
Mid – Rookie
ADC – Jackeylove
Support – Mark
Reuniting 2/5ths of the legendary IG core was supposed to lead TES to their Worlds destiny. Yet going into the Summer split they are another team running it back with the exact same roster, though unlike teams like JDG, BLG or OMG, the Spring split was an unmitigated failure for TES. There was not glory, but a collapse down the stretch of the season and shameful defeat at the hands of OMG, a team that is probably running a budget less than Jackeylove’s individual paycheck (note: The previous statement was hyperbole. I do not actually know how much OMG pays their players.) With some of the flashiest names in the LPL, finishing without at least challenging JDG would have been a disappointment, let alone the 7th/8th that they actually managed.
The big obvious question for this team is what exactly they do with the top lane because the decision making around it was seemed heavily stilted. They chose to run Qingtian basically the entire regular season, and then yanked the rug on him with a single series to go? Sure, he was largely a hit or miss top laner who was missing against the better teams (and LGD’s because rookie Xiaoxu was feeling it) but pulling the plug on him and swapping to Wayward literally at the last second heavily sabotaged both of them. Congratulations, Wayward crushed Biubiu in round 1 of playoffs, like basically everyone else who played top lane in the LPL. Up against Shanji (a player TES bypassed as a rookie to pick up Qingtian), Wayward was not up to it, and it was a big part of what ended their season. Even though both top laners are limited, I find it hard to place the blame on them directly given this awkward setup and how they approach top lane in the Summer with both players still on the roster remains to be seen.
The bot lane continues to be the same story as always. Jackeylove is still super high ceiling but there are still sometimes these baffling efforts where he’s playing off of his game, which has been a repeating trend for a while now. Mark did well to stabilize him at the beginning of their shared tenure but it’s been rough going as of late for this bot lane in general.
Moving to the big free agent swap they made, adding the legendary Rookie to the team, and it wasn’t all bad. It’s not like he was an abject disaster, he had his share of good games, such as dominating against Shanks in the first round of the playoffs, it’s just that there were too many series where he didn’t lift the team when things weren’t clicking elsewhere… like the 2nd round against OMG. It felt like too often he wasn’t meshing with Tian who was also off his normally solid domestic game. People joke that it was his Worlds performance showing up and frankly, I’d have to agree.
I don’t know with this team. The on-paper talent is on there as usual but there’s something missing… Normally with teams, the question is: how can this team coordinate together and be more than the sum of their parts, which OMG showcased best? I don’t get that vibe from TES, where the question I’m asking is: do they feel like playing up to their talent, or are they going to let go of the rope and lose in shocking fashion? Just weird vibes. I’d say maybe the coaching swap could help, but bringing in the guy who was overseeing BLG during their moneybag disappointment era doesn’t fill me with confidence. I still think they still should be fine for the playoffs off of their sheer talent running over enough teams when they do hold it together, but I just don’t see them as a viable challenger for the LPL crown unless something flips in them, particularly given how good the top 4 seem.
Playoff Bubble
8) TT
Top- HOYA
Jungle – Beichuan/xiaohuangren
Mid – Ucal
ADC – Huanfeng/1xn
Support – yuyanjia/Yaoyao
A pleasant surprise last split, making their first LPL playoffs since they were known as Sinodragon, TT has shed their bottom feeder status and actually have some breakout potential. They’ve formed a decent core to build off of and collected some of the most exciting young talents in the league. How they split their starts between the young guns and the vets they played last split is quietly one of the most interesting storylines in the league as those talented swing pieces could push them up into contendership or down out of the playoffs depending on how they handle the LPL stage.
We’ll start with the boring part of the team in their now solidified Korean solo lane pairing, HOYA and Ucal. After spinning solo laners basically their entire existence, the duo has been locked in for basically 4 splits now. Neither blow anyone’s socks off (though I maintain Ucal in particular is pretty underrated), but you know you’re gonna get a playoff worthy performance but not much more. Together they provide the solid foundation for the rest of the roster, where it really gets interesting.
Starting with jungle, Beichuan had effective but flawed split. He output damage well and did much to incite action, but he also died a whole ton, with the highest death share of any jungler in the league last split. This volatility has been his modus operandi this TT squad as he manages to lead TT in MVPs and I’m sure would have also led the team had an “Most Un-valuable Player” award been given to the biggest inter on the losing team, so he’s pretty core to the TT identity as they’re constructed. However, the clearly more intriguing option has to be Xiaohuangren, who is likely the youngest player in the league right now, and the most hyped LDL jungler since Bo. Debuting in LDL at just 16, XHR was immediately one of the best mechanical junglers in the lower level, and even when the age limit was placed, he took to dominating the Korean ladder with multiple accounts in his excess time. Promoted in the middle of the Spring split days after he turned 18, he hasn’t seen a stage since that age limit was placed, but eyes will be watching to see if TT put the hyper-talent on the rift.
Their other young hyper-talent TT acquired is at the ADC position where they are bringing JDG’s LDL bot laner 1xn. Highly touted by LDL experts, 1xn doesn’t have a mechanical flaw to speak of, putting out insane damage and CS numbers on the regular. The one thing to note was that the JDM team surrounding him didn’t have the skills to back him up, so he never really got the accolades his performance deserved. How he splits time with Huanfeng, who was pretty ineffective last season, and just clearly is no longer the do-everything ADC we saw at 2020 Worlds with Suning is the other big question. It’s weird to see him morph into a rather conservative low-risk low-reward player, and honestly, if they gave out a “Least Valuable Player” award to the winning team, he’d probably be the among League’s leaders in that sketchy credential.
Finally, the support situation is less exciting but lowkey just as important as the other 2 positions as they’ve opted to add Yuyanjia to the roster to which I’m fairly confused. A lackluster veteran (25 years old?) who has never really helped a roster even at his “peak”, I’m not sure what he brings to the table for TT. It’s even more confusing since incumbent support Yaoyao has been the rare promoted LDL support who has actually looked good in his initial LPL stint, which is some sort of minor miracle given the typical LDL support struggles. Trying to fit XinLiu in last split probably cost them some series, so I’m not sure why they seem so interested in these mediocre at best support players when they have a solid one in hand.
9) WE
Top – Cube/Demon
Jungle – Heng
Mid – Shanks
ADC – Hope
Support – Iwandy
I see WE as the LPL’s gatekeeper team. Last split they were great against the lower ranked teams (exception AL), and awful against the higher ranked teams (exception BLG) and managed to sneak playoffs thanks to the likes of IG being just a bit more volatile. I’m sure I’ll have more to say about them as the season goes on, so I’ll keep things brief here.
They managed to do this with an essential deadweight in the top lane. Cube doesn’t completely alter the equation for WE, as he’s coming off of his worst split to date where he was largely stuck on tank duty, but he does turns the top lane for WE from being a ceiling capper into a floor raiser for the team. Worst case is that he continues his middling tank form and he serves as a rich man’s Biubiu who can actually lane competently. The best-case scenario is that the change of scenery (where he was on RA for 4 years) works to revitalize him towards more of the damage top lane champs he played in his earlier years. Either way, the best part of this addition is really the subtraction of Biubiu, which adds much needed flexibility to a team that desperately needs it. Meanwhile, Demon also augments the team’s flexibility by adding his skills of doing promotional videos when Chinese New Year rolls around. So yeah, you can say this is a much-improved top lane situation.
Otherwise, the team remains the same as their gatekeeper-selves. Iwandy quietly had a very solid season as WE’s most consistent player and a foundation as a support. Hope had a mid-season swoon that showed his deficiencies particular as a laner and on less focused champions, but was able to showcase his carrying skills as the season concluded. Both are what they are: usually net positives for a team, but not really able to take you to a top 6 seed independently. That is going to have to come from their teammates, speaking of which…
Heng was up and down as a rookie jungler, but for the most part demonstrated a willingness to be proactive and facilitate his lanes via early ganks, even if it didn’t always work out as planned. And of course, Shanks who had his best regular season to date, relying on consistently strong lane performances. While capitalizing on those leads remains a hit or miss affair and a particular bad playoff series against TES are marks against him, I still have those high expectations for him and continue to see this as a prove it year. Outside of Cube unlocking something additional, which shouldn’t be counted on, this jungle-mid pair are the key for WE to climb higher than the lower playoff spots. Both are usually strong early, but they’ll need to clean up their mid/late game play for the team to be a contender against higher caliber teams.
10) IG
Top – YSKM/neny
Jungle – Tianzhen
Mid – Cryin/Dove
ADC – Xiaoyueji/Ahn
Support – Wink
Putting IG too low was a big miss for me in Spring and despite narrowly missing out on playoffs and making some pretty major roster changes, they do make sense as a team as a whole to the point where I can see them in playoff contention.
YSKM was the breakout player for them, as his mechanical prowess was legit right out of the gate though I do think he’s a tad overrated as his DPM isn’t as high as you would expect for a player that almost exclusively plays damage top laners. You have to assume he starts over neny who is just perpetually going to be on this roster as a break in case of emergency/illness weakside player.
Their other returning player is Wink, who has proven to be a successfully above average support and revitalized his career in the process after floundering at ADC for IG. Wink is reunited with his former mid laner Cryin, as both were teammates on a Estar team that vastly exceeded expectations on their debut year. While being the low econ mid laner in a Xiaohu-GALA centric RNG didn’t flatter his talents, Cryin had a pretty good year all things as UP’s best player last season, and he’ll get another shot this year. The expectation is he starts over Dove who is still on the roster? He wasn’t awful but was certainly less exciting than his jungle counterpart and I assumed he would be leaving along with GIDEON and the Korean coaching staff.
This is Xiaoyueji’s second shot at the big leagues given he was tried and passed by Ahn last season, but he’s coming off of an LDL Season MVP where he was clearly above the lower level. We’ll need to see if he can step up with the tougher competition ala Photic, or if he’s just a quadruple-A player (too good for LDL, not good enough for LPL) like Asura. It might not even matter though as it’s worth noting that Ahn remains on the roster, even after the promotion of XYJ and a tryout from LNG (who clearly have contending in mind). He’s coming off of a quietly strong split and likely has the inside track in the battle for the starting role as in a repeat of LPL Spring 2022, these 2 will duke it out for the spot again.
Despite not being the LDL MVP, Tianzhen might be the more exciting prospect actually and notably doesn’t have any veteran to compete with. At only 18 years old, he’s going to be one of the LPL’s youngest players and has an eclectic champ pool that is highlighted by his signature Rengar. It will be interesting to see if these LDL standouts can continue the momentum in the LPL. The promotion isn’t easy, but both of them are in position to excel.
11) RNG
Top – Breathe
Jungle – Wei
Mid – Tangyuan
ADC – LP
Support – LvMao/Lele
It’s crazy to think this time last year, RNG were celebrating their 2nd consecutive MSI championship. Obviously, this team has more or less completely shattered from the Golden Road-seeking team that once ruled Spring and faltered at Worlds on a regular basis. I mean it’s been years of speculation that RNG was actually in a NA-esque perpetual financial meltdown that was held together by unfair streaming contracts and bobby pins, but with the departure of GALA and in particular, Ming, who has more or less been on RNG since the start of the era, finally puts RNG on the backfoot. Still, even with the exodus of more or less everyone on those famous teams, there’s a window at the playoffs.
Wei is the final piece of the MSI 2022 team, which is wild to think about because as I mentioned, it's been just 1 year. Now the longest tenured player on the roster, it’s a weird situation as there’s no longer an obvious lane to play into. While he wasn’t always bad, he had many questionable moments and his weakest split to date, and now without GALA in the bot lane there’s no clear place to focus for this team. He’s demonstrated he can be effective without the likes of Xiaohu, GALA and Ming back when he was on EStar in his debut season in 2020, but it’s been a long time since then, so I suppose we’ll have to wait and see.
Similarly, Breathe is also coming off of a split where he failed to meet expectations. It feels like ever since he left WE, he just hasn’t really found his footing as the good flex top laner, first on that weird 2022 BLG failed “superteam” and then on RNG where he never fit in to the Xiaohu-GALA puzzle. This last split he was basically relegated to weakside tanks and was subsequently pretty inconsequential as either a positive or negative factor. The few forays he took towards more carry champions were bad last split and it’s not a great sign for a player once considered so promising. I guess it’s the WE fan in me talking that he still has that upside to be among the best in the league. Maybe I’m lending him too much leeway given he was maybe WE’s best strongside top ever (which for the record is more about WE perpetually playing bot-centric). With out any of those other major carries on RNG, I’m interested to see if Breathe is placed back in that role.
The rest of the team is a smattering of cobbled pieces who aren’t without upside, but don’t exactly scream playoffs. GALA was exchanged for a large bag of cash and LP, who was the only consistent starter of the new cohort. he was heavily cared for as the rookie bot laner on LNG’s otherwise star-studded group, he was able to deliver in that capacity. Notably, he narrowly had the 2nd highest DPM in the split, though admittedly there was a large gap between 1st place damage monster Elk and a much smaller one to the following ADCs of JackeyLove, Assum and Leave. However, he certainly wasn’t perfect as he managed the lowest CS per minute among ADCs in the league, and he didn’t wow the way rookie of the split Leave did. Still, it was a relatively promising start, though the downgrade from Hang to one of RNG’s supports looms large as needless to say, the “cash considerations” RNG received with LP are most likely not being used for his lane partner.
With Angel departing after a pretty rough split, where the highlight was creating a meme after defeating his former team Weibo Gaming, RNG were rumored for a number of domestic mid laners but ultimately just stuck with the player they seemed intent on before they picked up Angel at the last second. Tangyuan is an LDL promote who has been flatout bad in the few stage performances he got in with the main roster, struggling both in the pre-season Demacia Cup and then to open the proper LPL season while Angel got up to speed. He’s at least known to have good Korean solo queue ranks, but you have to imagine there’s going to be a lot of handwringing over his inevitable growing pains as he starts for one of the country’s most popular domestic teams. There’s not zero upside here, for example Xiaoxu came from the same LDL team and vastly overperformed expectations, but I’d lean towards a year of hard knocks for the youngster.
Ming’s departure is the biggest loss for RNG as they now go from one of the rare franchise defining supports to… not that. LvMao spent the split unsigned for the most part before latching onto BLG as ON’s backup to end the season. Reportedly he served a coaching-esque role for the team as they went on their impressive MSI run but LvMao’s play has left a lot to be desired. Now with over 3 years removed from his standout performances in Spring 2020 and no Bard patch coming in sight, it’s tough to see what LvMao brings to the table as a player outside of an experienced hand. The other option they brought in was Lele, the young rookie support FPX promptly benched for Qiuqiu, which is never a great sign, and you know my stance on LDL supports: they bad. Funnily enough Lele was originally a pretty hyped RNG prospect the team once spent 300K yuan signing out of the yearly rookie camp. Needless to say, he’s been an okay LDL support but hasn’t lived up to that price tag at all, though now it seems they could at least get some games out of their failed investment.
2023.05.27 06:21 LiveSportWorld Xinyu Wang Tennis Player Ranking, Biography, and More
 | Xinyu Wang is an international Chinese tennis player. Wang is presently in a love affair with Wu Yongen, as she announced through a post in 2021, making her relationship status known to the public. submitted by LiveSportWorld to u/LiveSportWorld [link] [comments] You may get here Xinyu Wang WTA Player Career, Husband, Net Worth, Family, And More Xinyu Wang |
2023.05.27 04:10 Southern-Soulshine Prosecuting Murdaugh for the double murder cost taxpayers $264k
Prosecuting Murdaugh for the double murder cost taxpayers $264k
By Chris Joseph, WISTV
COLUMBIA, S.C. (WIS) - Prosecuting Alex Murdaugh wasn’t cheap.
The South Carolina Attorney General’s office confirmed to WIS that it spent $264,316.68 on housing, witnesses, travel, and other materials to successfully prosecute Murdaugh for the double murder of his wife and son.
Taxpayers footed the bill, but a Columbia-area watchdog is calling for Murdaugh and future convicted defendants to pick up the tab for their prosecutions.
Two former Midlands prosecutors strongly oppose the concept.
The costs
Columbia-area citizen watchdog John Crangle provided WIS with a spreadsheet of the Attorney General’s costs for the Murdaugh Trial.
The Attorney General’s Office spokesman Robert Kittle verified the spreadsheet.
Former 11th Circuit Prosecutor and Current Defense Attorney Jim Huff said a non-death penalty murder trial in South Carolina usually runs three to five days.
He said multiple on-scene witnesses or a case based on circumstantial evidence can drag out a trial.
However, there are times when prosecutors can drag out a trial with “too much evidence.”
“Prosecutors sometimes feel that anybody that touched the case that knew anything, they just got to put everything into the recipe so to speak, to bake a cake. Sometimes they just don’t know when to stop,” he said.
The vast majority of Murdaugh prosecution expenses were for lodging, but the largest single expense went to California-based Park Dietz & Associates.
The state paid the forensic consulting firm $37,840. The spreadsheet describes the expense as “Professional Services and Expenses”.
On its website, the firm claims to have provided experts who have testified and consulted in “thousands of criminal matters,” including high-profile cases.
Kittle told WIS the firm did not arrange any witnesses but did consult on criminology.
Another $16,100 went to witness Dr. Kenneth Kinsey for consultation and research. Kinsey played a key role in the prosecution’s rebuttal of Murdaugh’s legal defense.
The office spent $171,044.26 at the Hampton Inn and Suites in Walterboro. That included housing for office attorneys, staff, and witnesses, along with various accommodations from mid-January through early March.
Travel costs drove up the price by $22,533.70. They included flights for witnesses, travel reimbursements for staff/witnesses, and the rental of a 2021 Ford Explorer used for 11 days in January.
The largest individual travel reimbursement was provided to prosecutor David Fernandez at $1,764.24 for his time between Jan. 22 and March 3.
JLA Investigations and Security LLC were paid $10,769 for an “expert retainer” and “professional services”. The company specializes in digital forensics.
The remainder of the costs are comprised of miscellaneous items the prosecution bought for the trial. They included posterboard, maps, a book on Bloodstain Pattern Analysis, Gorilla Duct Table, and other items.
The attorney general’s office also indicated which items were reusable and which were not. Only 0.94 percent of the expenses ($2,488.52) went to reusable items.
“A lot of the expenditures are not going to be usable in another prosecution. The witnesses against Murdaugh can’t be used to prosecute John Doe. Right? All the investigative work done that was done by SLED can’t be used to prosecute Jane Roe,” Crangle said.
Murdaugh’s defense attorneys Dick Harpootlian and Jim Griffin declined requests for comment on this story.
Footing the bill
Crangle argues that convicted criminals, such as Murdaugh, should pay the costs of the investigation and prosecution through restitution.
“The taxpayers now are being forced to pay these costs, when the criminal defendants should be required to pay them. Particularly when the criminal defendants have assets that can be attached,” he said.
Crangle conceded defendants often lack resources but said the issue should fall to the judge in the case. He said there could be judgments where the convicted offenders would be required to pay the costs if they obtained the money to do so.
“Some statutory guidelines could be formulated, to give the judge a basis on which to make. Or you could simply trust it to the discretion of the judge to make that determination. But I don’t think it’s difficult in a case like Murdaugh,” he said.
Crangle points to the 2007 case against former South Carolina Treasurer Thomas Ravenel, who was ordered by a federal judge to pay $28,676.31 to the State of South Carolina to compensate it for the legislative session held to replace Ravenel.
Former 5th Circuit prosecutor Brett Perry and Huff both raised concerns about equal protections – a concept enshrined in the U.S. Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause 14th amendment.
Perry disagreed with Crangle’s argument and said the Ravenel case is a different situation.
“It was not a situation where Mr. Ravenel has assessed the cost of the prosecution. Believe that case was in federal court if I’m not mistaken, and I don’t believe Mr. Ravenel was ordered to pay a penny to the federal government, who absorbed the cost of prosecuting him,” he said.
Ravenel did not pay the court for his prosecution but was responsible for a $221,323.69 fine.
Perry also questioned where the line would be drawn.
“If it cost 100 percent of your net worth, to cover the cost of your prosecution, would you take everything someone had in order to do that?” he asked.
Huff also strongly opposed the concept, describing it as unconstitutional. He said prosecutors would begin considering factors other than the crime and its worthiness of prosecution.
“Lady justice isn’t blind anymore. We’re going to look at the resources of the accused. ‘Let’s go prosecute the folks that have money, not because the prosecution merits it, but we can fund our office better,’” he said.
Crangle disagreed with the concept that the rich would face additional punishment.
“I don’t regard it as an additional punishment. I regard it as a every defendant should be required to pay restitution for their wrongdoing, whether you’re judgment proof or not. The question is are you capable of paying it and can it be recovered?” he said.
Huff said Crangle’s concept also presents the opportunity for reverse enforcement.
“By the same token, then if the prosecution loses, they should bare all the cost to the defendant. It’s not a system of justice I would want to be a part of I can tell you that,” Huff said.
Crangle said he wants to see legislation on the issue, but is early in his lobbying efforts.
In the meantime, Murdaugh’s attorneys unsuccessfully attempted to release funds for an appeal of his murder convictions.
submitted by Southern-Soulshine to MurdaughFamilyMurders [link] [comments]
By Chris Joseph, WISTV
COLUMBIA, S.C. (WIS) - Prosecuting Alex Murdaugh wasn’t cheap.
The South Carolina Attorney General’s office confirmed to WIS that it spent $264,316.68 on housing, witnesses, travel, and other materials to successfully prosecute Murdaugh for the double murder of his wife and son.
Taxpayers footed the bill, but a Columbia-area watchdog is calling for Murdaugh and future convicted defendants to pick up the tab for their prosecutions.
Two former Midlands prosecutors strongly oppose the concept.
The costs
Columbia-area citizen watchdog John Crangle provided WIS with a spreadsheet of the Attorney General’s costs for the Murdaugh Trial.
The Attorney General’s Office spokesman Robert Kittle verified the spreadsheet.
Here’s the breakdown
Kittle declined to comment on the story beyond pointing to the length of the trial (six weeks) and transportation to Colleton County as factors driving cost.Former 11th Circuit Prosecutor and Current Defense Attorney Jim Huff said a non-death penalty murder trial in South Carolina usually runs three to five days.
He said multiple on-scene witnesses or a case based on circumstantial evidence can drag out a trial.
However, there are times when prosecutors can drag out a trial with “too much evidence.”
“Prosecutors sometimes feel that anybody that touched the case that knew anything, they just got to put everything into the recipe so to speak, to bake a cake. Sometimes they just don’t know when to stop,” he said.
The vast majority of Murdaugh prosecution expenses were for lodging, but the largest single expense went to California-based Park Dietz & Associates.
The state paid the forensic consulting firm $37,840. The spreadsheet describes the expense as “Professional Services and Expenses”.
On its website, the firm claims to have provided experts who have testified and consulted in “thousands of criminal matters,” including high-profile cases.
Kittle told WIS the firm did not arrange any witnesses but did consult on criminology.
Another $16,100 went to witness Dr. Kenneth Kinsey for consultation and research. Kinsey played a key role in the prosecution’s rebuttal of Murdaugh’s legal defense.
The office spent $171,044.26 at the Hampton Inn and Suites in Walterboro. That included housing for office attorneys, staff, and witnesses, along with various accommodations from mid-January through early March.
Travel costs drove up the price by $22,533.70. They included flights for witnesses, travel reimbursements for staff/witnesses, and the rental of a 2021 Ford Explorer used for 11 days in January.
The largest individual travel reimbursement was provided to prosecutor David Fernandez at $1,764.24 for his time between Jan. 22 and March 3.
JLA Investigations and Security LLC were paid $10,769 for an “expert retainer” and “professional services”. The company specializes in digital forensics.
The remainder of the costs are comprised of miscellaneous items the prosecution bought for the trial. They included posterboard, maps, a book on Bloodstain Pattern Analysis, Gorilla Duct Table, and other items.
The attorney general’s office also indicated which items were reusable and which were not. Only 0.94 percent of the expenses ($2,488.52) went to reusable items.
“A lot of the expenditures are not going to be usable in another prosecution. The witnesses against Murdaugh can’t be used to prosecute John Doe. Right? All the investigative work done that was done by SLED can’t be used to prosecute Jane Roe,” Crangle said.
Murdaugh’s defense attorneys Dick Harpootlian and Jim Griffin declined requests for comment on this story.
Footing the bill
Crangle argues that convicted criminals, such as Murdaugh, should pay the costs of the investigation and prosecution through restitution.
“The taxpayers now are being forced to pay these costs, when the criminal defendants should be required to pay them. Particularly when the criminal defendants have assets that can be attached,” he said.
Crangle conceded defendants often lack resources but said the issue should fall to the judge in the case. He said there could be judgments where the convicted offenders would be required to pay the costs if they obtained the money to do so.
“Some statutory guidelines could be formulated, to give the judge a basis on which to make. Or you could simply trust it to the discretion of the judge to make that determination. But I don’t think it’s difficult in a case like Murdaugh,” he said.
Crangle points to the 2007 case against former South Carolina Treasurer Thomas Ravenel, who was ordered by a federal judge to pay $28,676.31 to the State of South Carolina to compensate it for the legislative session held to replace Ravenel.
Former 5th Circuit prosecutor Brett Perry and Huff both raised concerns about equal protections – a concept enshrined in the U.S. Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause 14th amendment.
Perry disagreed with Crangle’s argument and said the Ravenel case is a different situation.
“It was not a situation where Mr. Ravenel has assessed the cost of the prosecution. Believe that case was in federal court if I’m not mistaken, and I don’t believe Mr. Ravenel was ordered to pay a penny to the federal government, who absorbed the cost of prosecuting him,” he said.
Ravenel did not pay the court for his prosecution but was responsible for a $221,323.69 fine.
Perry also questioned where the line would be drawn.
“If it cost 100 percent of your net worth, to cover the cost of your prosecution, would you take everything someone had in order to do that?” he asked.
Huff also strongly opposed the concept, describing it as unconstitutional. He said prosecutors would begin considering factors other than the crime and its worthiness of prosecution.
“Lady justice isn’t blind anymore. We’re going to look at the resources of the accused. ‘Let’s go prosecute the folks that have money, not because the prosecution merits it, but we can fund our office better,’” he said.
Crangle disagreed with the concept that the rich would face additional punishment.
“I don’t regard it as an additional punishment. I regard it as a every defendant should be required to pay restitution for their wrongdoing, whether you’re judgment proof or not. The question is are you capable of paying it and can it be recovered?” he said.
Huff said Crangle’s concept also presents the opportunity for reverse enforcement.
“By the same token, then if the prosecution loses, they should bare all the cost to the defendant. It’s not a system of justice I would want to be a part of I can tell you that,” Huff said.
Crangle said he wants to see legislation on the issue, but is early in his lobbying efforts.
In the meantime, Murdaugh’s attorneys unsuccessfully attempted to release funds for an appeal of his murder convictions.
2023.05.27 02:53 EnvironmentIll5784 Jersey Shore Pillow Talk
I’m a huge fan of 90 Day fiancé and I love their pillow talk series. I think jersey shore could benefit from the cast doing an authentic recap and pillow talk. Maybe have Mike watch with Lauren lmao, Jenni could have Zack, Deena and Chris, Snooki and Joey, Angelina and her pets, Vinny and Paola. I want to see actual organic and genuine critiques of the OG show and recaps of jsfv. Ideas?? I want to hear everyone’s thoughts on this
submitted by EnvironmentIll5784 to jerseyshore [link] [comments]
2023.05.26 21:18 TresGay Daisy, the second beagle featured in this sub almost 12 years ago, crossed the bridge a few weeks ago
I started this sub in 2011 because I had two adorable beagles and wanted to share them. Back then the other beagle sub, beagles, was pretty much abandoned and unmoderated. Lots of spam and porn, so I started this one. That is a fantastic sub now, btw, I encourage everyone to visit and join. If it had been like it is now back then, this sub wouldn't exist.
The first picture was of Clem, our copper nose clown. He crossed the bridge in 2021 and I shared at that time. The second picture was of Daisy, a standard saddle back. I got Daisy in 2007 and Clem in 2009.
Daisy came into my life at a very, very low point. In the 12 months previous, I had been in a car accident with multiple fatalities (I wasn't at fault, btw), my nieces/nephews were taken away by their dad in a terrible custody battle, I had lost a 14 yo beagle, and I had lost an 18 yo cat. I was in a relationship that was long term but not enriching. I felt stuck, lost, aimless. I had started thinking of an exit plan.
Then my girlfriend came home with this goofy little beagle who needed a foster home ASAP. I didn't want another dog, I was getting ready to leave it all behind. This little pup needed some help, though, so I delayed my plans. I taught her how to walk on a leash, basic commands, got her healthy ... and I started to enjoy little moments during the day. Sixteen years later, that pup did go to her forever home but it was across the Rainbow Bridge. Foster failure for the win!
She made me nuts her whole life with her escape artistry and penchant for getting into trouble/garbage. The last month of her life she could barely get around, but she still managed to get stuck in a ground hog hole, get her head stuck in a Diet Coke 12 pack carton, and get into my mom's edibles. Thank you poison control, you are worth the $1000 or so I've spent with you over the last 16 years. Thankfully the edibles were low dose and she only got one, so she was just stoned and slept really well for 2 days.
I spent untold hours shoring up fencing, watching Daisy actually climb trees to get out to chase critters, chasing her across ridges/hollars, and chasing her through swamp marshes.
Goodbye, sweetheart. Thank you for saving my life.
submitted by TresGay to beagle [link] [comments]
The first picture was of Clem, our copper nose clown. He crossed the bridge in 2021 and I shared at that time. The second picture was of Daisy, a standard saddle back. I got Daisy in 2007 and Clem in 2009.
Daisy came into my life at a very, very low point. In the 12 months previous, I had been in a car accident with multiple fatalities (I wasn't at fault, btw), my nieces/nephews were taken away by their dad in a terrible custody battle, I had lost a 14 yo beagle, and I had lost an 18 yo cat. I was in a relationship that was long term but not enriching. I felt stuck, lost, aimless. I had started thinking of an exit plan.
Then my girlfriend came home with this goofy little beagle who needed a foster home ASAP. I didn't want another dog, I was getting ready to leave it all behind. This little pup needed some help, though, so I delayed my plans. I taught her how to walk on a leash, basic commands, got her healthy ... and I started to enjoy little moments during the day. Sixteen years later, that pup did go to her forever home but it was across the Rainbow Bridge. Foster failure for the win!
She made me nuts her whole life with her escape artistry and penchant for getting into trouble/garbage. The last month of her life she could barely get around, but she still managed to get stuck in a ground hog hole, get her head stuck in a Diet Coke 12 pack carton, and get into my mom's edibles. Thank you poison control, you are worth the $1000 or so I've spent with you over the last 16 years. Thankfully the edibles were low dose and she only got one, so she was just stoned and slept really well for 2 days.
I spent untold hours shoring up fencing, watching Daisy actually climb trees to get out to chase critters, chasing her across ridges/hollars, and chasing her through swamp marshes.
Goodbye, sweetheart. Thank you for saving my life.
2023.05.26 18:04 Professional_Disk131 Why Predictmedix is a potential ten-bagger (CSE: PMED) (OTCQB: PMEDF) (FRA:3QP)
 | Special Report submitted by Professional_Disk131 to StonkFeed [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/nq2812gk872b1.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=41c0a01629690d32205fce4457b7f316aed01218
While all of the above use the comparable approach to some degree, a direct comparative approach is the most appropriate methodology for relative startups, especially in a new or emerging industry. This would apply in the case of Predictmedix (CSE: PMED) (USOTC: PMEDF) (FRA: 3QP), my most recent recommendation to subscribers. Finding a comparable for PMED on the Artificial Intelligence side is virtually impossible but I did find one in the cannabis breathalyzer category. For the purposes of this report, I will compare PMED to Cannabix Technologies (CSE: BLO) (USOTC: BLOZF) (Frankfurt: BCT). To make it easier for readers, I will compare PMED (Predictmedix) and BLO (Cannabix Tech) below followed by my observations. I have not spoken to BLO management but have taken information from their web page.
The key reasons for reaching such a conclusion include:
https://preview.redd.it/bg0kzzno872b1.png?width=477&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a03252676d509e5db784ac9a26a5618f842fd99
This Report is written by Ted Ohashi, Let’s Toke Business Newsletter. |
2023.05.26 18:00 Professional_Disk131 Why Predictmedix is a potential ten-bagger (CSE: PMED) (OTCQB: PMEDF) (FRA:3QP)
 | Special Report submitted by Professional_Disk131 to Wealthsimple_Penny [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/e4ccjv7u772b1.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc4e65a6a6cdfad3869e550db77a5c3174ad50d5
While all of the above use the comparable approach to some degree, a direct comparative approach is the most appropriate methodology for relative startups, especially in a new or emerging industry. This would apply in the case of Predictmedix (CSE: PMED) (USOTC: PMEDF) (FRA: 3QP), my most recent recommendation to subscribers. Finding a comparable for PMED on the Artificial Intelligence side is virtually impossible but I did find one in the cannabis breathalyzer category. For the purposes of this report, I will compare PMED to Cannabix Technologies (CSE: BLO) (USOTC: BLOZF) (Frankfurt: BCT). To make it easier for readers, I will compare PMED (Predictmedix) and BLO (Cannabix Tech) below followed by my observations. I have not spoken to BLO management but have taken information from their web page.
The key reasons for reaching such a conclusion include:
https://preview.redd.it/afemtvlw772b1.png?width=477&format=png&auto=webp&s=d84ac1aa489305bdbbc5e508d4f3aafc8751dd7b
This Report is written by Ted Ohashi, Let’s Toke Business Newsletter. |
2023.05.26 17:59 Professional_Disk131 Why Predictmedix is a potential ten-bagger (CSE: PMED) (OTCQB: PMEDF) (FRA:3QP)
 | Special Report submitted by Professional_Disk131 to Stocks_Picks [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/r8fm197p772b1.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=356df68680b52faff071fb30772c3aa569658458
While all of the above use the comparable approach to some degree, a direct comparative approach is the most appropriate methodology for relative startups, especially in a new or emerging industry. This would apply in the case of Predictmedix (CSE: PMED) (USOTC: PMEDF) (FRA: 3QP), my most recent recommendation to subscribers. Finding a comparable for PMED on the Artificial Intelligence side is virtually impossible but I did find one in the cannabis breathalyzer category. For the purposes of this report, I will compare PMED to Cannabix Technologies (CSE: BLO) (USOTC: BLOZF) (Frankfurt: BCT). To make it easier for readers, I will compare PMED (Predictmedix) and BLO (Cannabix Tech) below followed by my observations. I have not spoken to BLO management but have taken information from their web page.
The key reasons for reaching such a conclusion include:
https://preview.redd.it/zhbjduur772b1.png?width=477&format=png&auto=webp&s=c17f30b902b27542ea9b85a87e7cc28eba050606
This Report is written by Ted Ohashi, Let’s Toke Business Newsletter. |
2023.05.26 17:16 Andre3000RPI Yahoo Morning Briefing
What we're watching
What we're reading
📷📷 📷📷
Note: Data is as of the time of opening this email. To view real-time markets data click here.
Why Nvidia's boom isn't a bubble
Today's Takeaway is by Brian Sozzi, Executive Editor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
Did you think Yahoo Finance was done covering Nvidia's eye-popping week of stock price gains on the back of a mind-bending earnings call and longer-term outlook?
Well, boy did you think wrong!
The question on my mind today is whether we are witnessing a good ole' fashioned stock price bubble in Nvidia.
I am inclined to say no.
But I am tossing onto the field a ton of caveats for investors who should be careful getting into a stock (or even considering getting into it) that just gained $200 billion plus in market cap in a single trading session.
For perspective, McDonald's ENTIRE market cap is $209 billion!
A stock price bubble could be loosely defined as a situation when the price of a stock completely detaches from reality to the upside. This is often when a sexy investment thesis captivates Wall Street trading desks, sending the stock higher. Then retail investors get excited and buy without doing their fundamental homework.
The bullishness feeds on itself. Until it doesn't.
We've seen countless stock price bubbles over the past 20 plus years. There was the dot.com bubble when money-losing tech stocks such as Pets.com were artificially propped up on pure hype.
We've had the cannabis stock price bubble of 2020 and early 2021 on hopes of federal legalization bringing big profits to money-losing pot upstarts like Tilray and Canopy Growth.
There was the famous meme stock bubble at height of the pandemic that saw astronomic gains in GameStop, AMC, Bed Bath & Beyond and other fundamentally weak stocks, seemingly overnight.
Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks this year have felt bubblicious many times, especially when you pick apart the fundamentals of the companies being hyped on trading desks, Twitter, and in chat rooms.
C3.ai came out last week and said it will lose about $68 million on an operating basis for the fiscal year ended April 30. Analysts expect the company to lose another $63 million for its new fiscal year.
C3.ai has never turned a profit.
Yet, the stock is up 160% this year. To this writer, that's too bubbly for my britches.
At first glance, Nvidia checks a lot of bubble boxes:
But unlike the bubbles mentioned here, Nvidia's ascent is a little different.
For one, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang has a strong track record of execution. Over the last six years, Nvidia has hauled in $40.3 billion in adjusted operating profits by my math. How has it done this? By being on the leading edge of chip design for big sectors such as gaming, autos, and data centers.
Nvidia has made tangible stuff to accelerate the growth of really large companies, and has gotten handsomely paid to do so.
Huang has stayed very measured as his company has burst onto the scene, based on what people who know him have told me through the years. I like that Huang isn't out there doing TV commercials, 10 earnings day interviews and appearing at 12 conferences a year. The guy remains head down on executing and only comes out when he has something worth sharing.
That's real leadership.
And that brings me to my final point.
Nvidia is proving it will be on the leading edge of a real life generative AI movement. You may giggle that I have bought the hype, but I talk to enough CFOs to know they are allocating mega money to AI development.... and a lot of that money is being spent on powerful Nvidia chips.
"So this is a very, very big deal [AI] that we can help the physical industry of the world become digital for the very first time," Huang told our Julie Hyman and Dan Howley on Yahoo Finance Live in March.
Bubble characteristics on Nvidia? Sure. Will the stock company back to Earth? Sure. But to say Nvidia is another long-term stock bust is probably missing the point.
"The AI Revolution is not hype as there will be massive winners such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Google and also clear losers on the AI roadkill list," Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives told me via email.
All in a day's investing analysis.
submitted by Andre3000RPI to DeercreekvolsBlog [link] [comments]
- The Fed's favorite inflation gauge: The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's favorite inflation reading, is out Friday morning. Economists expect core PCE rose 0.3% in April and 4.6% over last year.
- More checks on the consumer: PCE data will also be released alongside readings on personal income and spending, and the University of Michigan's look at consumer sentiment for May.
- Debt ceiling deliberations: Reuters reported late Thursday the Biden administration and House Republicans are "just $70 billion apart" on a figure that could clinch a deal to avert a US default. Potentially saving lawmakers, and investors, a headache just ahead of a long weekend.
What we're reading
- US economy beats back 'dubious' recession fears after GDP, jobs data top expectations: According to Thursday's data, the economy has been growing more than pessimistic sentiments from economists indicate.
- There’s an AI war, and Nvidia is the only arms dealer: Nvidia is the leading AI chip maker thanks to years of investments in AI technologies. According to Raymond James managing director Srini Pajjuri, the company isn’t going to lose that title anytime soon.
- Nikola stock at risk of delisting, closes at all-time of low of 62 cents:A potentially new ignominious new chapter for what was one of the hottest EV stocks, Nikola has slid ever since a 2020 report unmasking issues with the company let the air out of its tires.
📷📷 📷📷
Note: Data is as of the time of opening this email. To view real-time markets data click here.
Why Nvidia's boom isn't a bubble
Today's Takeaway is by Brian Sozzi, Executive Editor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
Did you think Yahoo Finance was done covering Nvidia's eye-popping week of stock price gains on the back of a mind-bending earnings call and longer-term outlook?
Well, boy did you think wrong!
The question on my mind today is whether we are witnessing a good ole' fashioned stock price bubble in Nvidia.
I am inclined to say no.
But I am tossing onto the field a ton of caveats for investors who should be careful getting into a stock (or even considering getting into it) that just gained $200 billion plus in market cap in a single trading session.
For perspective, McDonald's ENTIRE market cap is $209 billion!
A stock price bubble could be loosely defined as a situation when the price of a stock completely detaches from reality to the upside. This is often when a sexy investment thesis captivates Wall Street trading desks, sending the stock higher. Then retail investors get excited and buy without doing their fundamental homework.
The bullishness feeds on itself. Until it doesn't.
We've seen countless stock price bubbles over the past 20 plus years. There was the dot.com bubble when money-losing tech stocks such as Pets.com were artificially propped up on pure hype.
We've had the cannabis stock price bubble of 2020 and early 2021 on hopes of federal legalization bringing big profits to money-losing pot upstarts like Tilray and Canopy Growth.
There was the famous meme stock bubble at height of the pandemic that saw astronomic gains in GameStop, AMC, Bed Bath & Beyond and other fundamentally weak stocks, seemingly overnight.
Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks this year have felt bubblicious many times, especially when you pick apart the fundamentals of the companies being hyped on trading desks, Twitter, and in chat rooms.
C3.ai came out last week and said it will lose about $68 million on an operating basis for the fiscal year ended April 30. Analysts expect the company to lose another $63 million for its new fiscal year.
C3.ai has never turned a profit.
Yet, the stock is up 160% this year. To this writer, that's too bubbly for my britches.
At first glance, Nvidia checks a lot of bubble boxes:
- $200 billion-plus market cap gained in a single session simply because of a 2Q revenue outlook that was billions above estimates. Overlooked: sales, operating profits and net profits were all down year on year.
- Easy sellable story to novice investors. Here's the pitch: Nvidia's generative AI chips are being used by the likes of Meta and Microsoft-backed ChatGPT to change the world, so go buy Nvidia's stock.
- Nvidia's stock continues to fetch ever higher valuation multiples, taking them to new records based on future potential, which is just that — unknown future potential. Consider this: Nvidia's stock now trades at on a PE ratio of 112 times estimated earnings for the next 12-months. The broader stock market as measured by the S&P 500 trades at 18.5 times or so.
But unlike the bubbles mentioned here, Nvidia's ascent is a little different.
For one, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang has a strong track record of execution. Over the last six years, Nvidia has hauled in $40.3 billion in adjusted operating profits by my math. How has it done this? By being on the leading edge of chip design for big sectors such as gaming, autos, and data centers.
Nvidia has made tangible stuff to accelerate the growth of really large companies, and has gotten handsomely paid to do so.
Huang has stayed very measured as his company has burst onto the scene, based on what people who know him have told me through the years. I like that Huang isn't out there doing TV commercials, 10 earnings day interviews and appearing at 12 conferences a year. The guy remains head down on executing and only comes out when he has something worth sharing.
That's real leadership.
And that brings me to my final point.
Nvidia is proving it will be on the leading edge of a real life generative AI movement. You may giggle that I have bought the hype, but I talk to enough CFOs to know they are allocating mega money to AI development.... and a lot of that money is being spent on powerful Nvidia chips.
"So this is a very, very big deal [AI] that we can help the physical industry of the world become digital for the very first time," Huang told our Julie Hyman and Dan Howley on Yahoo Finance Live in March.
Bubble characteristics on Nvidia? Sure. Will the stock company back to Earth? Sure. But to say Nvidia is another long-term stock bust is probably missing the point.
"The AI Revolution is not hype as there will be massive winners such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Google and also clear losers on the AI roadkill list," Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives told me via email.
All in a day's investing analysis.
2023.05.26 14:51 firstbroth3 Jersey Shore Family Vacation LIVE - Deena has been called 'petty' for snubbing Angelina while fans call the episode 'tough to watch'
submitted by firstbroth3 to Indonisain [link] [comments]
2023.05.26 14:49 firstbroth3 Jersey Shore Family Vacation LIVE - Deena has been called 'petty' for snubbing Angelina while fans call the episode 'tough to watch'
submitted by firstbroth3 to Midlinf [link] [comments]
2023.05.26 04:40 Dismal-Jellyfish First Republic Bank acquirer JPMorgan Chase & Co. laid off about 1,000 former First Republic Bank employees today, weeks after its takeover of the failed lender.
 | submitted by Dismal-Jellyfish to Superstonk [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/964gug2do42b1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe89b9b4f4617ccaf2420f220e51a2474a0e95dc Sources:
https://sfstandard.com/business/first-republic-employees-laid-off-in-brief-scripted-phone-calls/:In scripted calls this morning, roughly 1,000 employees at First Republic Bank were informed that their service was no longer needed. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgan-lays-off-about-1-000-former-first-republic-employees-c2afa328:JPMorgan Chase & Co. laid off about 1,000 former First Republic Bank employees Thursday, weeks after its takeover of the failed lender. https://www.wicz.com/story/48974110/jpmorgan-is-cutting-about-1000-first-republic-bank-employees:JPMorgan Chase informed about 1,000 First Republic Bank employees on Thursday that they will no longer have jobs. https://www.ft.com/content/935fa23a-c295-4ba0-abd5-63fcf9649609:JPMorgan Chase is cutting about 1,000 First Republic employees following its rushed takeover of the California-based bank earlier this month, said people familiar with the matter. The job losses, which will be felt across all of First Republic’s businesses, are equal to about 15 per cent of its roughly 7,000 workers, the people said. JPMorgan notified the affected First Republic employees on Thursday that they would not be receiving an offer to move to JPMorgan, one of the people said. The cuts are a further blow to First Republic employees who have already had a difficult two months. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, customers of First Republic withdrew tens of billions of dollars of deposits. First Republic was ultimately shuttered as US regulators orchestrated its sale over a weekend to JPMorgan. JPMorgan said it had followed through with a commitment to First Republic employees to provide clarity on their employment status within 30 days of the deal, which closed on May 1. “We recognise that they have been under stress and uncertainty since March and hope that today will bring clarity and closure,” the bank said. “The vast majority of First Republic employees will be offered employment at JPMorgan Chase — either through a transition period, or in many cases full-time.” Workers in transition roles will be employed for up to 12 months. News of the cuts was reported earlier by Bloomberg. JPMorgan, which has about 300,000 staff worldwide, said employees who had not been offered a new position would receive pay and benefits for two months and will be offered a lump-sum payment with continuing benefits. The JPMorgan action is less severe than cuts planned by First Republic last month, days before it was sold, to cut as much as 25 per cent of its workforce in order to reduce costs. Marianne Lake, co-head of JPMorgan’s consumer and community banking division, said in a presentation to investors on Monday that First Republic’s business had “seen stabilisation of clients and deposits”. “In fact, since the acquisition we’ve actually seen a small net inflow of deposits, she said. “That’s something we’re very focused on both of those two things — stabilising and winning back the client and their business.” First Republic primarily catered to well-off customers with millions of dollars in assets. JPMorgan’s acquisition will boost the Wall Street bank’s efforts to expand in wealth management. REMINDER:At the beginning of the month, the FDIC and JP Morgan Chase entered into a loss-share transaction on single family, residential and commercial loans it purchased of the former First Republic Bank.The FDIC will share in the losses and potential recoveries on the loans covered by the loss–share agreement with JP Morgan. https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/134iami/fdic_alert_jpmorgan_chase_bank_national/ Loss-share transaction: Under an SLA, the FDIC absorbs a portion of the loss on a specified pool of assets sold through the resolution of a failing bank - in effect sharing the loss with the purchaser of the failing bank.Does shared loss put the taxpayer on the hook for additional losses down the road?: No. When the FDIC calculates the estimated cost of a failure, it takes into account all expected losses on the assets covered in shared-loss agreements (SLAs). These current market assumptions are built into the cost of failure at the time of resolution. Thus, the cost of all expected future payments are recognized at the time of bank failure and no losses are deferred. Any sharing loss payments are made from receivership funds from the specific failed bank or thrift or, if those are insufficient, from the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF). The DIF is funded by assessments paid by insured banks and thrifts and it is not taxpayer funded.How does sharing loss work? The FDIC uses two forms of shared loss. The first form is for commercial assets and the second for residential mortgages. For commercial assets, the SLAs cover an eight-year period with the first five years for losses and recoveries and the final three years for recoveries only. The FDIC typically offers a range of coverage terms depending upon the market conditions and the location of the assets on covered assets up to a stated threshold amount (generally the FDIC's dollar estimate of the total projected losses on shared loss assets). Loss coverage may also be provided for loan or note sales, but such sales require prior approval by the FDIC. Recoveries on loans which experience loss events are split, in most instances, with 20% of the recovery going to the assuming bank and 80% to the FDIC. For single-family mortgages, the SLAs are for ten years and have the same 80/20 split as the commercial assets. The FDIC provides coverage on three basic single-family first lien mortgage loss events: modification, short sale, and when the property is sold after foreclosure. Second liens are permitted to be charged off according to regulatory criteria when the first lien is not held by the assuming bank. Since the inception of SLAs, the basis for sharing losses with an assuming bank has undergone some change. Until March 26, 2010, the FDIC shared losses with assuming banks on an 80/20 basis until the losses exceeded an established threshold defined in the SLA, after which the basis for sharing losses shifted to a 95/5 basis. Sharing losses on a 95/5 basis was eliminated for all SLAs executed after March 26, 2010.Does the FDIC receive any benefits if the assuming bank makes money on the covered assets? Yes. If there are recoveries on assets that have been charged off by the failed bank or the assuming bank, then the FDIC receives 80 percent of the recoveries.What types of losses on the assets are covered and when does the FDIC reimburse the buyer for those losses? The FDIC covers credit losses. The FDIC does not cover losses associated with changes in interest rates. For single-family loans, the assuming bank is paid when the loan is modified or the property is sold. For commercial loans, the assuming bank is paid when the assets are written down according to established regulatory guidelines or when the assets are sold.How does the FDIC know it is getting the best deal with shared loss? When the FDIC is preparing the sale of a failing bank or thrift, the FDIC reaches out to numerous potential bidders to bid for the customer deposits and the failing bank's assets. The sale relies on a confidential, competitive bidding process. In addition, the FDIC uses financial advisors to estimate asset values. After the bids are received, the FDIC selects the least costly option. To facilitate that analysis, the FDIC may dictate the terms and conditions of a sharing loss arrangement and the assets to be covered when potential assuming banks bid on a failing bank. This allows the FDIC to more quickly analyze and compare each of the bids to determine which is the least costly to the Deposit Insurance Fund. The terms and conditions also enable the FDIC to monitor the SLAs effectively. When market conditions are at their worst, shared loss can save the Deposit Insurance Fund money. As a result, shared loss agreements enabled the FDIC to sell the assets, but without requiring that the FDIC accept the low prices prevalent at the time. Instead, the FDIC sold the assets to assuming banks at a discount and they were incented under the SLAs to service and manage the assets, resolving them at a higher recovery amount once market conditions improved, splitting the higher recovery with the FDIC.How big is the shared loss program? How much money has the FDIC saved? During the recent Financial Crisis the FDIC entered into 590 shared loss agreements with Acquiring Institutions from 304 Failed Bank receiverships covering $216.4 billion in assets. The estimated savings exceed $41 billion, compared to an outright cash sale of those assets. List of shared loss Agreements since July 10, 2008Why doesn't the FDIC use shared loss for all failures? The FDIC has developed a variety of resolution methods designed to enhance the marketability of a failing bank. SLAs are just one of the resolution methods the FDIC has available to utilize. Market conditions dictate the resolution types the FDIC offers for each failing bank and by law the FDIC must select the least costly resolution transaction for the failing bank.What type of oversight does the FDIC have over the SLAs? The FDIC conducts annual on-site reviews and regular off-site monitoring of records of covered losses and overall compliance with the SLAs. It also requires assuming banks to provide quarterly reports to ensure compliance with the program and to monitor the performance of the assets. Lastly, if the assuming bank is not in compliance with the SLA, the FDIC has the right to stop shared loss payments until the problem findings are resolved, and, in extreme cases, to sell the assets through a competitive bid process.For SLAs that cover single-family loans, must the assuming bank honor the FDIC's loan modification program? The terms of the SFSLA require the Acquirer to modify loans using an approved modification program for single-family, owner-occupied loans. One of the approved programs is the FDIC loan modification program which adjusts the current loan terms to achieve an affordable payment by first reducing the loan interest rate, then extending the loan term, and, where necessary, offering forbearance of principal. The goal of the loan modification programs is to provide an affordable monthly payment. The Acquirer can propose an alternative loan modification program that will achieve the goals of providing affordable payments consistent with cost effectiveness. If the FDIC concurs, then the Acquirer can use the alternative program.Are assuming banks permitted to conduct portfolio sales of shared-loss assets? Yes, if the FDIC consents and the assuming bank satisfies the applicable provisions of the agreement.Shared Loss Publications
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2023.05.26 02:13 elmerV2 THE HEYMAN CLASSIC IV: THE LAST DAYS OF DISCO
 | submitted by elmerV2 to FantasyBookingElite [link] [comments] Do you hear that? That’s right, folks, FBE is entering the scorching summer season for its fifth official year in a row, which of course means that we plan to kick the beach break off with a bang. Once again, it is time for Fantasy Booking Elite’s marquee tournament, THE HEYMAN CLASSIC. The most grueling challenge on all of FBE’s calendar, a multi-month competition that will see 16 of our great promotion’s best and brightest go head-to-head for the chance to net themselves the shot of a lifetime and a chance at immortality. The prize? A FBE World Heavyweight Championship match in the main event of BTE, our biggest show of the year. Certainly nothing to scoff at. A small addendum: this year, the Heyman’s first round will be a single knockout, meaning no loser’s bracket. If you lose your first match, you’re out for good. The tournament formula will revert to normal in the final eight, with the losers of the second round competing to earn a spot in the finals, but it’s important to stress how grueling and unforgiving the competition will be here in comparison to past years. The sun is sweltering, beating down from the sky in punishing waves of suppressive heat. The streets are hot asphalt, pumping music and blaring sirens, a crowd of exhausted, lazy people. In the kingdom of violence, our home, our dancers prepare themselves for the swirling, euphoric groove to come. Let’s introduce them to you now. In alphabetical order: Cactus Mike (First Entry) 2x FBE Television Champion Member of The Ark Punish and Crush 2023 Semi-Finalist The Cardiac Cactus. FBE’s greatest underdog has entered the Heyman Classic for the first time in the hopes of feeding his ever-growing family. Mike has made a habit of proving his naysayers wrong, and now looks to do the same by winning FBE’s greatest tournament and making it home in time for an Applebees dinner. The world cheers for you, Cactus Man. Obligatory Sink or Swim comment. Capital STEEZ (Fourth Entry) 1x Heyman Classic Winner (2021) FBE Grand Slam Champion BTE Main Eventer King Capital. The Ace of FBE fresh off the hardest couple months of his career re-enters the tournament that he is perhaps more familiar with than perhaps any other single name in FBE history. With hardened nerves and a fresh focus on singles action, STEEZ looks to once again scale the mountain and find him in that always-comfortable main event spot. Unfortunately for him, there’s a whole new generation waiting around the corner hoping to tear him down. Code Blue (Second Entry) 1x Gedo Classic Winner (2021) ½ of the Longest Reigning FBE Tag Team Champions 1x Punish and Crush Winner (2022) The Pasadena Paralyzer. Not just satisfied with his ongoing World Championship challenge, FBE’s prodigal young gun looks to buff his chances of a run with the title that has eluded him his entire career by entering this tournament alongside the entirety of his stable. Blue’s quest to become one of the most renowned names in company history knows no peace, and you can bet he’ll fight tooth and nail to finish first. Obligatory Sink or Swim comment. Desmond Caid (Second Entry\)* 1x Heyman Classic Winner (2020) Inaugural FBE World Heavyweight Champion FBE Hall of Famer The Devil. Old as time, clever and tricky to boot. No one has seen more of FBE than the supposed lightbringer, no one has found more to rail against. This entry is Desmond Caid returning home from the fires of hell, tired and weary, but ready to tear down everything if that’s what it takes to once again find himself sitting atop the throne. The snake waits in the garden, eyes flickering with ambition. Anyone in the field who chooses to underestimate him will find it a fatal mistake. Ethan Fadely (Second Entry\)* 1x Heyman Classic Winner (2022) FBE Grand Slam Champion BTE Main Eventer The Son of The Roses. Last year’s fairy tale winner has found himself rotted as of late, soured to the world and eager to cut the legs out from all of FBE’s greatest heroes. He enters this year’s tournament alongside allies Inferno and Jay Castle a changed man, one determined to do whatever it takes to further the agenda of the Aether Aces and destroy all of FBE from within. Be wary. Hunter Maguire (First Entry) Shining Light League 2022 Finalist Gedo Classic 2022 Finalist Member of DTJ The Irish Psycho. The freshest face in all of this year’s field, DTJ’s mercenary is sure to be a real dark horse in this competition, ready to prove his worth and fiber to anyone and everyone brave enough to step up to him. No one is more of a fighter than Maguire, no one has the same confidence or drive that seems to possess our friend from the Emerald Isle, and no one stands to gain more by winning this tournament than him. It only remains to be seen if he can pull it off. Inferno (Fourth Entry\)* 4x FBE World Heavyweight Champion (Current) BTE Main Eventer FBE Hall of Famer The Brummie Bastard. In the cruelest terms, Inferno is the perennial runner-up of FBE. The most consistent, most deadly competitor the landscape has ever seen who has narrowly lost out on each and every single tournament he has ever competed in, coming a razor’s edge away from victory each time. Now, with the World Title in hand and a iron claw grasped around the entirety of the promotion, Inferno has never been in a better place, never been more difficult to beat. If it’s Maguire’s tournament to win, it’s Inferno’s tournament to lose. But who will be able to bring him down when The Bastard has already made sure to scorch the earth and leave nothing but ashes in his wake? JOHN (First Entry) Longest Reigning FBE Junior Heavyweight Champion Punish and Crush 2023 Finalist Winner of WarGames 2023 (w/ JEM and Erick Koeman) The Misfit. Mr. Restraining Order himself had one of the most impressive runs in FBE history after his return to FBE’s Junior Heavyweight Division, and that success has certainly transitioned into a very solid Heavyweight career so far. He’s racked up some big wins, he won WarGames, he did well in the Lifeline Classic, he got himself a shot at the Intercontinental Championship. Still, FBE isn’t horseshoes. Close doesn’t count. JOHN has been so close to breaking through, and the Heyman Classic is the perfect place for him to finally do so. john bomb. Jay Castle (Second Entry) Member of The Aether Aces Heyman Classic 2022 Semi-Finalist 2022 Gimmick of the Year The Hometown Hero. Jay Castle is tired of missing out, tired of playing second fiddle, tired of staring at nothing but the bronze. The lovable rogue has never quite gotten his due credit in FBE, and has finally reached his boiling point after joining the Aether Aces and charting a whole new path for the future of his career. This Jay Castle is far more serious and far more fatal than anything FBE proper has ever encountered before, and he’s done with taking no for an answer. Hide, quick. He’s coming to your area code. Kaze Tanaka (First Entry) 1x FBE World Heavyweight Champion 1x FBE World Tag Team Champion (Current) Winner of WarGames 2022 (w/ Tanaka-Gun) The King. FBE’s favourite monarch overthrew Ethan Fadely and claimed the crown for himself, but after living the highest of highs, Inferno knocked him back to the lowest lows. Kaze followed that up by retiring Apeirogone, a tremendous consolation prize, and has also claimed the FBE World Tag Team Championships with Dr. Logan Wright, but he still hasn’t reclaimed the throne that he believes to be rightfully his. The kickboxer looks to add to his already impressive resume and send himself to the main event of BTE, where he can regain the right to rule above his kingdom. Obligatory Sink or Swim comment. Dr. Logan Wright (Third Entry) 2x FBE Pure Champion (Current) 1x FBE World Tag Team Champion (Current) Shining Light League Winner (2023) The Medicinal Magician. The current double champion is going into his third Heyman Classic, but for the first time, he feels like an actual contender. The Doc was a longtime bridesmaid, and never the bride, and the main event scene has made itself available to him in a flash. It’s up to the former Junior Heavyweight Champion to walk through the once-locked door that has now opened up, and to make sure that it doesn’t slam shut and leave him out in the cold. Obligatory Sink or Swim comment. Misery (First Entry) 1x FBE Junior Heavyweight Champion 1x Gedo Classic Winner (2022) Member of DTJ The Conductor of The Black Parade. Once FBE’s resident Junior Ace, Misery has now deservedly graduated to the Heavyweight Division. After a great victory over JOHN to secure a shot at the Intercontinental Championship, she failed to rip the gold away from the DeadStar. Ruler of the shallow end, but not quite swimming smoothly in the deep end just yet, the Heyman Classic is her chance to go from a blue chipper prospect to a full blown champion. Nate Matthews (Fourth Entry\)* FBE Grand Slam Champion BTE Main Eventer Heyman Gold Rush Winner (2019) The Man Who Made Zeus His Bitch. Nate Matthews ventures from the confines of his current Pure Rules methodology to give us some good, old-fashioned action from one of FBE’s most renowned figureheads. While Matthews has never won the Heyman Classic tournament, he did make history by winning its predecessor, the Gold Rush. While Matthews may seem somewhat removed from the goings-on of FBE, it would be a mistake to count him out by any stretch. There are Gods, and then there’s Nate Matthews, and the two don’t even remotely compare. Sebastian King (Second Entry) 2022 Punish and Crush Finalist Member of PROVINCE (???) Inaugural IWF Tag Team Champion The Messiah of (Nu)Metal. With his partner-in-crime now stuck behind a commentary desk, Sebastian King is looking to translate his tag success into some singles gold. Sebastian King has certainly not had an easy FBE career. He has dealt with plenty of emotional blows, such as his betrayal at the hands of Corey Youngblood and the apparent ghosting of him by PROVINCE. But the strongest metals are not forged in comfort, they are forged in fire, and Sebastian King is perhaps one of the strongest (nu)metals around. T.M. Imran (First Entry) Gedo Classic Winner (2021) 2x FBE Television Champion Member of PROVINCE The Fifth Asian Tiger. The leader of PROVINCE has called himself the True Megastar since his very first day in the company, and most nights he certainly performs like one. However, he hasn’t accomplished the one thing that every TRUE megastar accomplishes at least once. He hasn’t won the FBE World Heavyweight Championship. This is his chance to rectify that. This is his chance to take the limelight for himself. This is his chance to finally, decisively secure his spot on primetime…forever. Travis Crowley (First Entry) Lifeline Classic Winner (2022) 1x FBE Intercontinental Champion (Current) Founder of FBE The Last Cowboy. Despite his integral role in the company’s creation, Travis Crowley has always missed out on FBE’s marquee attractions, not the least of which being his absence from the Heyman Classic. Now, in his first entry, the grizzled vet seeks nothing less than complete redemption after a tragic 2022. Crowley is sure that this is his year because, god dammit, it has to be. It doesn’t matter how far he must go or how much it’ll hurt, the tattered gunslinger rides again, and this time he rides for blood. *** Footnote: an asterisk (\) means that someone competed in the predecessor to the Heyman Classic, the 2019 Heyman Gold Rush.* *** Now with all of that guff out of the way, lets get to the stuff you’re actually properly looking forward to, that being the Heyman Bracket. Look upon it and rejoice, dumbasses. https://preview.redd.it/p7k8yhbj042b1.png?width=1160&format=png&auto=webp&s=4869bacb54e3df4e71530fa5293c0cd7896fdb36 Bloody Sunday Redux. The Explosion of PRIMETIME. Mutiny on The Ark. The Doctor and The Detox. Black on Both Sides. A Duel on The Western Frontier. Podcast Wars. My Best Friend Misery vs. The Evil Snake Matthews. All these and more coming very, very soon. So, before the sun wanes and crashes into the sea beyond, let’s have ourselves have one last big blowout bash. The lights are flashing. The floor is open. They can say what they want, but we know it never goes out of style. Get on up. It’s time to dance. |
2023.05.25 22:30 media8101 Fetty Wap Net Worth: Willie Maxwell II, known by his stage name Fetty Wap, is a renowned figure in the rap industry. Born in 1991, this artist from Paterson, New Jersey, is recognized for his unique blend of music, producing hits that have caught the attention of millions worldwide.
 | submitted by media8101 to GSRNews [link] [comments] |
2023.05.25 21:33 LemmingPractice Former NDP Voter, Voting UCP, and this is why
I have seen a lot of posts on this sub from former Conservative voters, saying why they are voting NDP. I have also seen a lot of posts from NDP supporters asking why Conservative voters support the UCP in this election.
So, I thought I would put together a post to try to provide a factual perspective on the argument for the UCP. I'm hoping it doesn't get reflexively downvoted by those who don't like my conclusions, but I will try to keep it as factual as possible.
The Economy
For me, the economy is usually the most important issue. I think a false dichotomy is often drawn between economic concerns and social programs. The reality, in my view, is that economic growth is what makes funding for social programs sustainable in the long term. Alberta's program spending per capita was the highest among the country's four big provinces in 2021-22, without the help of equalization dollars. We are able to maintain a comparably high level of spending in this province because we have the most productive economy in the country (tops in GDP per capita by a wide margin).
Growing the economy grows the government's tax revenue, which allows for the funding of more and better social services.
When it comes to the economy, too much of the discussion in this election has been about oil. Whether it's the UCP talking about how Notley will destroy the oil industry, or the NDP handwaving away their entire economic record because of the oil price crash that happened before they took office, the rest of the economy seems to be entirely ignored.
Part of why I voted for Notley previously was the idea that she would be working to diversify the economy. Unfortunately, she failed pretty spectacularly at doing that.
The Alberta Economic Dashboard is a useful tool for statistics. I think the investment numbers are the most important ones in there, as they show a government's ability to attract investment. It may take years for a project to start contributing to GDP, but it is usually the policies in place when the investment decision is made that are the most relevant. Companies aren't necessarily going to throw away millions in sunk investment because a new government came into power and changed things, but they will avoid investing in a place if changes made before the investment is made affect the calculus of their investment's expected return.
If you poke around the investment numbers, remove the oil investment numbers, and just look at the non-oil investment numbers, you will find that non-oil investment in Alberta fell 1.38% during Notley's term. Meanwhile, under the UCP, those same figures rose 11.96%.
That's a pretty wide gap, especially since the UCP had a pandemic which lasted for most of their term. Notley had an oil price crash, too, but the crash happened in 2014, she took office in 2015, and she had produced no tangible momentum in investment in non-oil industries by the time she left office in 2019. I just don't accept the argument that she couldn't produce any positive results in non-oil industries by 2019, based on an oil crash that happened in 2014.
The UCP also secured huge successes in multiple different non-oil industries which Notley had herself identified as being priority areas.
One area of high priority for Notley was renewable energy, and she complained very loudly when her highly regulated renewable energy program was scrapped by the UCP. But, despite Notley's talk during the election of the jobs and investment in renewables, the ones who actually brought in that investment were the UCP. The UCP's free market approach to renewables has been incredibly successful. It has been so successful, in fact, that in 2022, 75% of all new wind and solar capacity added in Canada came from Alberta. Notley talks about the importance of renewable energy investment, but the ones who actually brought the results were the UCP.
In tech, it's a similar story. Another focus area for Notley, yet another area where investment has been booming under the UCP.
Aerospace is another really promising area for diversification. Last year, airplane manufacturer De Havilland moved their headquarters from Toronto to Calgary, and committed to building a manufacturing and aerodrome near Strathmore. Maybe even more important was the deal thr province struck with Westjet which will see them move assets from Vancouver and Toronto and prioritizing Calgary as their main transfer hub. The move will double Westjet's capacity through Calgary, increasing destinations from Calgary, boosting the tourism sector (easier to travel to places with direct flights), and providing secondary benefits to any industry with mobile workers (eg. it's easier to have a consultancy in Calgary if your consultants can easily travel to clients without transfers).
In various other industries, hydrogen investment has been rapidly increasing, with Air Products currently building a $1.3B processing facility in Edmonton. Dow has invested $10B in their plastics manufacturing facility in Fort Saskatchewan. McCain doubled the size of their Lethbridge plant. Major biofuels plants are going forward in Calgary, Lethbridge and on Siksika Nation Land.
The list goes on. Alberta is doing great right now, and there is real economic momentum. It's momentum that is not being driven by oil. It's the momentum that Notley says she wanted to achieve, yet, was achieved under UCP policies she intends to scrap.
Unfortunately, Notley's approach seems to be too ideological, and she doesn't seem to be learning from her mistakes. Her tax proposal is to increase corporate taxes, and while the response from many has been, "yeah, those oil companies should pay more", that's not how that works.
Corporate taxes are a tiny part of an oil company's tax burden. The much larger part for them is royalties. It's like an industry-specific tax. Last year, the Alberta government made $27.5B in royalty payments, primarily from oil companies. Those payments come from a single industry, and mostly from a handful of companies. As many people have rightly pointed out, oil companies aren't going to leave Alberta (well, at least, not all of them will, a couple have) because the oil is here. But, other companies in other industries have more mobility. Last year, the Alberta government only made $6.4B in corporate tax revenues. Unlike royalties, those apply to every industry. For oil companies, corporate taxes represent a tiny fraction of their tax bill, and pale in comparison to royalties. For other industries, however, corporate taxes are their main tax liability. As such, by raising corporate taxes (as opposed to, say, royalties), Notley is not targeting oil companies, she is promising to disproportionately increase the tax bill of non-oil industries, hurting efforts to diversify, and reducing Alberta's ability to attract non-oil investment dollars.
Power Grid Promise
I wanted to include this one in a separate section, even though, my big concern here is the economy.
Notley promised to bring our power grid to net zero emissions by 2035, which contrasts with the UCP's 2050 target date. The estimated cost of that promise if $52B.
First of all, let's talk about the emissions that this will save. Last year, Canada produced 670 megatonnes of emissions. Alberta's energy grid produced 0.008 megatonnes. Canada is responsible for 1.5% of the world's emissions. As such, the emissions savings we are talking about here are 0.000019% of Canada's emissions, or 0.00000018% of world emissions.
Cutting emissions is an important goal, but you still need to do a cost benefit analysis. Looking at those numbers, we are not talking about world changing effects here. We are talking about a tiny fraction of emissions, for a huge cost.
The $52B cost gets passed along to consumers, which means two groups: 1. consumers, and 2. industry.
For consumers, estimates are that the cost of these measures could increase energy rates by 40%. While Canada's cost of living crisis is not as bad here as it is in other provinces, that's still a huge amount of additional cost inflation for consumers.
For industry, if the plan is to try to diversify away from oil and gas, what are we diversifying towards? If part of your answer is manufacturing or any other industrial sectors which provide lots of good blue collar jobs, then you need to consider energy costs, which are a huge part of the cost base of any company running large industrial power-hungry plants. Those costs make manufacturing in Alberta more expensive, and therefore, less competitive. The result is driving away the non-oil investment capital we need to diversify the economy.
For some perspective, the only form of renewable energy which has had a cost advantage over hydrocarbons for more than a few years is hydroelectricity, which has been the most efficient energy source in the world for over a century. Some provinces, like BC, Quebec and Ontario, are blessed with abundant hydroelectric resources, but waterfalls are in short supply on the prairies. As such, our energy grid grew up around what we did have: hydrocarbons.
As a result, our grid produces 75% of its power through hydrocarbons like natural gas. Ontario, by contrast, only has 8% of its energy grid power provided by hydrocarbons, yet it has balked at the 2035 target, and is instead building new natural gas plants. Why? Well, Ontario is the country's manufacturing center, and cheaper natural gas power will help to keep energy costs down for its industrial consumers, helping it to continue attracting industrial investment dollars.
Alberta is already taking large steps in bringing our grid to net zero. I discussed the huge increases in solar and wind power above. I mentioned hydrogen, and we have new communities being built to run entirely on that fuel. We are working on small modular reactors, and our technology to use abandoned wells to produce geothermal power has been so successful that it is being exported for use elsewhere.
Progress is being made, and it is being made very fast, but 2035 is a reckless target, and the cost-benefit analysis does not support the approach. It takes time for hydrogen production to ramp up, and for new communities to be built or retrofitted to run on it. It takes time to build modular reactors, to build solar and wind capacity, etc. But, we are leading the country in these efforts, but it is still a long journey.
The federal policy wasn't designed to be achievable for Alberta's grid, which runs 75% on hydrocarbons, it was designed to be achievable for Quebec (who get 94% of their power from hydroelectricity), BC (who get 84% of their power from hydroelectricity) and Ontario (who get only 8% from hydrocarbons, with the majority of their power being from hydroelectricity and nuclear). We do not have the geography of those provinces, and the only pragmatic approach is to tackle the issue based on our own circumstances, not taking an ideological position that will damage our economy.
Sovereignty Act
The Sovereignty Act has been much maligned, but as a lawyer, I think I have a pretty different understanding of its practical application than most.
First of all, to address the constitutional question: no, the act is not unconstitutional. Theoretically, it could be used in unconstitutional ways, but the act itself is not unconstitutional. The act is a tool. You can use a hammer to build a house or to hit someone on the head. The hammer isn't the problem, but how it is used can potentially be. The Act's wording only allows Alberta to refuse to enforce federal laws that are unconstitutional. Obviously, it can't be unconstitutional to refuse to enforce an unconstitutional law, so the constitutionality depends on the use that is made of the Act, not the Act itself.
But, that's the theory, what's the practical effect and purpose of the act? Negotiating leverage.
To explain, let's take a look at a tactic that has been used to Alberta's disadvantage for a long time. With the Keystone XL pipeline, there were numerous environmental groups which challenged the project. Each and every one of them failed, and yet they succeeded in killing the line. How? By running out the clock.
Courts can't kill pipeline projects, they can only delay them. Like with TMX, if the court strikes down a regulatory approval, the company can just re-do the process, and re-apply, fixing the omission and getting the approval. The only one who can kill a project is the government.
With Keystone XL, the environmentalists lost every single challenge, but they ran out the clock, and kept court challenges going long enough for the next election to happen. Biden beat Trump, and then overturned the Presidential Order Trump had given approving the border crossing. In doing so, he killed the project.
The history of pipeline litigation makes the Sovereignty Act rather ironic. What the Sovereignty Act does, in practicality, is essentially the same.
Normally, the feds would implement a law, and the provinces would enforce it. The province might decide to challenge the constitutionality of the law, but the law would be enforced while that challenge occurred. If the province is successful, then the feds got to keep an unconstitutional law in place for the years that the court challenge took.
The Sovereignty Act reverses this situation. If used, the feds would not be able to implement their law in Alberta until they challenged the use of the Sovereignty Act (which would prevent the implementation). The feds would have to justify the constitutionality of their law against whatever the province says is unconstitutional about it. If the feds fail to justify their act, then it is struck down and the Sovereignty Act prevents an unconstitutional law from being enforced on Alberta. If successful, the feds could introduce their law after the court case is resolved. But, the use would be delayed by the court case, likely for years.
Unlike what many people think, the Courts aren't really about trials. Well over 95% of cases settle before they ever see the inside of a courtroom. Having a good or bad case is more about leverage than anything. A good case means good leverage, and likely a good settlement.
Similarly, the point of the Sovereignty Act isn't to use it to kill laws, it is to use it as a negotiating tool.
If the feds want, for instance, to implement a mandatory cut on fertilizer use by farmers, the Sovereignty Act could be used to prevent that. The feds would fight the battle in the courts, but, in the meantime, farmers would be able to keep using fertilizer. That leaves the feds a choice: either work collaboratively with the province and negotiate an agreement that both sides can live with, or go to court, have the policy delayed for years, and have that hanging over your head in the next election (as a win by your competitor could result in the policy being killed, just like Biden did with KXL). It is a public embarrassment to the feds, if it happens, and hurts their agenda, so they are incentivized to negotiate. Maybe that means a less restrictive fertilizer allowance, or phased-in implementation, or funding to enable a transition to more environmentally fertilizer options, etc.
This exact scenario actually played out at this year's budget. The feds threatened to implement three proposals which the province said it would use the Sovereignty Act on (fertilizer, the emissions cap and banning natural gas for electricity generation). There is a very strong argument that all of these matters are within provincial jurisdiction, since the province has constitutional authority over intraprovincial industry (ie. business that takes place exclusively within a single province). To implement the proposed policies, the feds would need to rely on the POGG provision, which is an exception that can allow the feds to pass legislation that encroaches on provincial authority, if it meets a certain test (the carbon tax was deemed constitutional based on the court finding that this exception had been met). Nothing about those constitutional challenges would have been a frivolous claim. The result of the threat was that the feds did not include those measures in the budget, and instead engaged collaboratively with Alberta. None of those measures have yet been implemented.
Unfortunately, this is the approach we need with the feds right now. Trudeau knows he has no shot of winning significant seats in Alberta, so his policies are focused on winning seats elsewhere. Some of this is with policies that apply cross-country on the surface, yet have disproportionate effect (like the 2035 grid policy I discussed above). Some of this is with policies that directly target the oil industry in Alberta (there is no emissions cap being contemplated for Ontario or Quebec's manufacturing sector, nor was there ever legislation targeting the manufacturing of cars and planes made in those places that run on Albertan hydrocarbons, and the shipping industries of the Atlantic Provinces and BC were never targeted either, despite being one of the world's most carbon intensive industries).
We needed leaders like Lougheed to stand up to the feds when Trudeau's dad was targeting the province, and unfortunately, we need that now, too.
Notley's plan, of course, is to get rid of the Sovereignty Act, based on unfounded allegations of chasing away investment (which, as I discussed in the Economy section, continues to boom right now). I wish her "be nice to the feds and maybe they'll be nice back" approach worked, but it didn't, and, as a professional negotiator, that doesn't surprise me at all.
Hard bargaining is far from the only negotiation strategy out there, but it's a tool you have to have. Negotiation theory means little without leverage. Many softer negotiation approaches are useless in litigation if your opponent knows you aren't willing to go to court, because they have no incentive to work collaboratively with you if you have no leverage. The ability to go to court is the source of your leverage. A successful trial lawyer will get better settlements in their cases because their trial record gives them leverage (ie. "if I don't settle with this guy, he is willing to go to trial). Lawyers who don't have credibility as a trial lawyer will get less on the same cases because they lack that same leverage. They don't even have to be good trial lawyers, they just have to be willing to fight a trial, because just the costs of a trial act as a significant incentive to work out a deal.
So, where is the source of Notley's leverage? Last time around, I thought she had a real shot to use the leverage of using her position as a non-conservative to give Trudeau an opening in Alberta. In 2015, Trudeau nearly tripled his predecessor's popular vote total in Alberta (9.3% in 2011 to 24.6% in 2015). Working collaboratively potentially gave Notley something Trudeau wanted (the promise of a breakthrough in Alberta). But, instead of using her leverage to get a solid commitment (like a commitment to retain the approval of Northern Gateway), she volunteered to champion his climate initiatives for vague promises of "pipelines for social responsibility".
The rest is history. In 2015, it was commonly known that Alberta's pipelines would reach capacity in 2018 when Fort Hills went online, since production levels in the oil sands are set 5-10 years in advance. Only two pipelines were set to be completed by 2018: Northern Gateway and Energy East. The TMX issue with BC didn't even arise until 2018, when the pipeline crisis had already started. There was never any chance that TMX could avoid the crisis. Notley didn't get a commitment on Northern Gateway, and it was killed. Energy East fell to a similar fate. Bill C-69 was dubbed the "No More Pipelines Bill" by Kenney in the last election, and, as predicted, there have been zero new export pipelines that have even entered the regulatory process since Trudeau took office in 2015.
Obviously, no one is perfect, and, although Notley's mistake was costly, you would hope that she would take that lesson and learn from it. But, as discussed earlier with the 2035 energy grid promise, she is doing the same thing again. What did she negotiate for in return from Trudeau for the 2035 commitment? Could she not at least have asked for federal dollars to subsidize the transition, in exchange for the accelerated timeline? And, why is she dead-set on throwing away her negotiating leverage by killing the Sovereignty Act? If she's not going to use the Act in an unconstitutional way, then what does she gain from taking a tool out of her tool bag? It's not like getting rid of the Act would stop a future UCP government from re-introducing it after a future election. The move is symbolic, at best, and takes away a practical tools from her arsenal.
Ultimately, I just don't trust Notley to negotiate with a federal government that I do not believe has Alberta's best interests at heart. With a different federal government it might be less of an issue for me, but we are where we are. I thought Kenney's approach of verbal grandstanding against the feds was similarly useless. But, the Sovereignty Act is actually a practical tool that has real weight. It's the first time an Albertan government has implemented one of those practical tools since the days of Lougheed and Klein. I don't understand why Notley would take away a tool like that which could work to protect Albertan interests.
Healthcare
Despite being the focus of the NDP's election campaign, I consider this one to be a nothingburger issue, but I wanted to explain why.
Before the last election, there was similar fearmongering about the UCP's approach to healthcare. In response, Kenney signed a healthcare pledge that he would not cut funding to the healthcare system, nor would he delist any service that was currently covered by AHS. He kept that promise, increasing healthcare funding each year, and not delisting any services.
Smith took power last year, and in her one budget since taking power she also increased healthcare funding. Her promise is to increase funding further. She has also made a similar pledge to Kenney's, which went along with the statement, "It means that a UCP government, under my leadership, will not de-list any medical services or prescriptions now covered by Alberta Health Insurance. No exceptions."
Moreover, the federal Canada Health Act also mandates what services have to be covered by provincial healthcare plans. There is no option under the Act to defund family doctor visits or any of the other services that have been talked about.
I have zero concerns about the healthcare issue, and it is ridiculous to me that the NDP have focused so much of their advertising budget on it.
The really sad thing about it, to me, is that the NDP approach is shutting down a conversation on healthcare that we really need to have.
Canada's healthcare system is the 7th most expensive per capita in the world, yet we only rank 35th in terms of quality of care. We are not getting our money's worth, and the situation is also continually getting worse, with per capita inflation-adjusted costs of healthcare increasing in 22 of the past 24 years.
I talked above about my economic concerns relating to the ability to sustainably fund social services, and the same thing applies here. Healthcare spending accounts for 13% of our GDP, which ranks 2nd highest among OCED countries. That's not sustainable.
While many talk about us having "free" healthcare, we don't: we have very expensive healthcare. We just pay for it once a year at tax time, not on a per-service basis.
Unfortunately, we need to have a real talk about our healthcare system, but every time it is brought up by a politician you get this false dichotomy fearmongering about how basically the only two options are our system vs the US system, and how we're going to have our chemistry teachers cooking meth to pay for medical care like Breaking Bad if we do anything but keep throwing money into propping up a broken system.
In reality, many of the world's best healthcare systems are hybrid systems, with private delivery and public funding being a very successful model (in other words, the government still pays 100% of healthcare costs for everyone, but delivery is provided by profit-motivated private companies who prioritize client service and efficient delivery of services to maximize their own profits).
The current system is a monopoly system. Both sides of the aisle seem to agree on the dangers of monopolies, and how they provide substandard service and higher costs to consumers. I don't know why so many people ignore that government bureaucracies are inherently monopolies, with no profit motive or market competition in place to drive innovation or force them to seek efficiencies.
Anyway, that's a bit of a theoretical rant, but, for the time being, the point is that healthcare shouldn't be a major issue in the election, and I really don't expect to see any noticeable change in healthcare services after this election, regardless of which party wins. Both parties have committed to throwing more money to prop up a broken system, and voter pressure seems to, again, be stopping politicians from having a productive discussion about how we could actually try to fix the system.
Conclusion
While there are other issues in the election, my post is probably long enough, at this point. If you made it all this way, then bravo.
I fully expect that many on this sub will disagree with my opinions, but I hope, at the very least, that people will read this and understand that there is another side to the story here. There are legitimate reasons to vote UCP, and many of us who are voting UCP are well-educated, very well informed on the issues and have considered them carefully, as opposed to just voting based on election sign colours or team loyalty.
submitted by LemmingPractice to alberta [link] [comments]
So, I thought I would put together a post to try to provide a factual perspective on the argument for the UCP. I'm hoping it doesn't get reflexively downvoted by those who don't like my conclusions, but I will try to keep it as factual as possible.
The Economy
For me, the economy is usually the most important issue. I think a false dichotomy is often drawn between economic concerns and social programs. The reality, in my view, is that economic growth is what makes funding for social programs sustainable in the long term. Alberta's program spending per capita was the highest among the country's four big provinces in 2021-22, without the help of equalization dollars. We are able to maintain a comparably high level of spending in this province because we have the most productive economy in the country (tops in GDP per capita by a wide margin).
Growing the economy grows the government's tax revenue, which allows for the funding of more and better social services.
When it comes to the economy, too much of the discussion in this election has been about oil. Whether it's the UCP talking about how Notley will destroy the oil industry, or the NDP handwaving away their entire economic record because of the oil price crash that happened before they took office, the rest of the economy seems to be entirely ignored.
Part of why I voted for Notley previously was the idea that she would be working to diversify the economy. Unfortunately, she failed pretty spectacularly at doing that.
The Alberta Economic Dashboard is a useful tool for statistics. I think the investment numbers are the most important ones in there, as they show a government's ability to attract investment. It may take years for a project to start contributing to GDP, but it is usually the policies in place when the investment decision is made that are the most relevant. Companies aren't necessarily going to throw away millions in sunk investment because a new government came into power and changed things, but they will avoid investing in a place if changes made before the investment is made affect the calculus of their investment's expected return.
If you poke around the investment numbers, remove the oil investment numbers, and just look at the non-oil investment numbers, you will find that non-oil investment in Alberta fell 1.38% during Notley's term. Meanwhile, under the UCP, those same figures rose 11.96%.
That's a pretty wide gap, especially since the UCP had a pandemic which lasted for most of their term. Notley had an oil price crash, too, but the crash happened in 2014, she took office in 2015, and she had produced no tangible momentum in investment in non-oil industries by the time she left office in 2019. I just don't accept the argument that she couldn't produce any positive results in non-oil industries by 2019, based on an oil crash that happened in 2014.
The UCP also secured huge successes in multiple different non-oil industries which Notley had herself identified as being priority areas.
One area of high priority for Notley was renewable energy, and she complained very loudly when her highly regulated renewable energy program was scrapped by the UCP. But, despite Notley's talk during the election of the jobs and investment in renewables, the ones who actually brought in that investment were the UCP. The UCP's free market approach to renewables has been incredibly successful. It has been so successful, in fact, that in 2022, 75% of all new wind and solar capacity added in Canada came from Alberta. Notley talks about the importance of renewable energy investment, but the ones who actually brought the results were the UCP.
In tech, it's a similar story. Another focus area for Notley, yet another area where investment has been booming under the UCP.
Aerospace is another really promising area for diversification. Last year, airplane manufacturer De Havilland moved their headquarters from Toronto to Calgary, and committed to building a manufacturing and aerodrome near Strathmore. Maybe even more important was the deal thr province struck with Westjet which will see them move assets from Vancouver and Toronto and prioritizing Calgary as their main transfer hub. The move will double Westjet's capacity through Calgary, increasing destinations from Calgary, boosting the tourism sector (easier to travel to places with direct flights), and providing secondary benefits to any industry with mobile workers (eg. it's easier to have a consultancy in Calgary if your consultants can easily travel to clients without transfers).
In various other industries, hydrogen investment has been rapidly increasing, with Air Products currently building a $1.3B processing facility in Edmonton. Dow has invested $10B in their plastics manufacturing facility in Fort Saskatchewan. McCain doubled the size of their Lethbridge plant. Major biofuels plants are going forward in Calgary, Lethbridge and on Siksika Nation Land.
The list goes on. Alberta is doing great right now, and there is real economic momentum. It's momentum that is not being driven by oil. It's the momentum that Notley says she wanted to achieve, yet, was achieved under UCP policies she intends to scrap.
Unfortunately, Notley's approach seems to be too ideological, and she doesn't seem to be learning from her mistakes. Her tax proposal is to increase corporate taxes, and while the response from many has been, "yeah, those oil companies should pay more", that's not how that works.
Corporate taxes are a tiny part of an oil company's tax burden. The much larger part for them is royalties. It's like an industry-specific tax. Last year, the Alberta government made $27.5B in royalty payments, primarily from oil companies. Those payments come from a single industry, and mostly from a handful of companies. As many people have rightly pointed out, oil companies aren't going to leave Alberta (well, at least, not all of them will, a couple have) because the oil is here. But, other companies in other industries have more mobility. Last year, the Alberta government only made $6.4B in corporate tax revenues. Unlike royalties, those apply to every industry. For oil companies, corporate taxes represent a tiny fraction of their tax bill, and pale in comparison to royalties. For other industries, however, corporate taxes are their main tax liability. As such, by raising corporate taxes (as opposed to, say, royalties), Notley is not targeting oil companies, she is promising to disproportionately increase the tax bill of non-oil industries, hurting efforts to diversify, and reducing Alberta's ability to attract non-oil investment dollars.
Power Grid Promise
I wanted to include this one in a separate section, even though, my big concern here is the economy.
Notley promised to bring our power grid to net zero emissions by 2035, which contrasts with the UCP's 2050 target date. The estimated cost of that promise if $52B.
First of all, let's talk about the emissions that this will save. Last year, Canada produced 670 megatonnes of emissions. Alberta's energy grid produced 0.008 megatonnes. Canada is responsible for 1.5% of the world's emissions. As such, the emissions savings we are talking about here are 0.000019% of Canada's emissions, or 0.00000018% of world emissions.
Cutting emissions is an important goal, but you still need to do a cost benefit analysis. Looking at those numbers, we are not talking about world changing effects here. We are talking about a tiny fraction of emissions, for a huge cost.
The $52B cost gets passed along to consumers, which means two groups: 1. consumers, and 2. industry.
For consumers, estimates are that the cost of these measures could increase energy rates by 40%. While Canada's cost of living crisis is not as bad here as it is in other provinces, that's still a huge amount of additional cost inflation for consumers.
For industry, if the plan is to try to diversify away from oil and gas, what are we diversifying towards? If part of your answer is manufacturing or any other industrial sectors which provide lots of good blue collar jobs, then you need to consider energy costs, which are a huge part of the cost base of any company running large industrial power-hungry plants. Those costs make manufacturing in Alberta more expensive, and therefore, less competitive. The result is driving away the non-oil investment capital we need to diversify the economy.
For some perspective, the only form of renewable energy which has had a cost advantage over hydrocarbons for more than a few years is hydroelectricity, which has been the most efficient energy source in the world for over a century. Some provinces, like BC, Quebec and Ontario, are blessed with abundant hydroelectric resources, but waterfalls are in short supply on the prairies. As such, our energy grid grew up around what we did have: hydrocarbons.
As a result, our grid produces 75% of its power through hydrocarbons like natural gas. Ontario, by contrast, only has 8% of its energy grid power provided by hydrocarbons, yet it has balked at the 2035 target, and is instead building new natural gas plants. Why? Well, Ontario is the country's manufacturing center, and cheaper natural gas power will help to keep energy costs down for its industrial consumers, helping it to continue attracting industrial investment dollars.
Alberta is already taking large steps in bringing our grid to net zero. I discussed the huge increases in solar and wind power above. I mentioned hydrogen, and we have new communities being built to run entirely on that fuel. We are working on small modular reactors, and our technology to use abandoned wells to produce geothermal power has been so successful that it is being exported for use elsewhere.
Progress is being made, and it is being made very fast, but 2035 is a reckless target, and the cost-benefit analysis does not support the approach. It takes time for hydrogen production to ramp up, and for new communities to be built or retrofitted to run on it. It takes time to build modular reactors, to build solar and wind capacity, etc. But, we are leading the country in these efforts, but it is still a long journey.
The federal policy wasn't designed to be achievable for Alberta's grid, which runs 75% on hydrocarbons, it was designed to be achievable for Quebec (who get 94% of their power from hydroelectricity), BC (who get 84% of their power from hydroelectricity) and Ontario (who get only 8% from hydrocarbons, with the majority of their power being from hydroelectricity and nuclear). We do not have the geography of those provinces, and the only pragmatic approach is to tackle the issue based on our own circumstances, not taking an ideological position that will damage our economy.
Sovereignty Act
The Sovereignty Act has been much maligned, but as a lawyer, I think I have a pretty different understanding of its practical application than most.
First of all, to address the constitutional question: no, the act is not unconstitutional. Theoretically, it could be used in unconstitutional ways, but the act itself is not unconstitutional. The act is a tool. You can use a hammer to build a house or to hit someone on the head. The hammer isn't the problem, but how it is used can potentially be. The Act's wording only allows Alberta to refuse to enforce federal laws that are unconstitutional. Obviously, it can't be unconstitutional to refuse to enforce an unconstitutional law, so the constitutionality depends on the use that is made of the Act, not the Act itself.
But, that's the theory, what's the practical effect and purpose of the act? Negotiating leverage.
To explain, let's take a look at a tactic that has been used to Alberta's disadvantage for a long time. With the Keystone XL pipeline, there were numerous environmental groups which challenged the project. Each and every one of them failed, and yet they succeeded in killing the line. How? By running out the clock.
Courts can't kill pipeline projects, they can only delay them. Like with TMX, if the court strikes down a regulatory approval, the company can just re-do the process, and re-apply, fixing the omission and getting the approval. The only one who can kill a project is the government.
With Keystone XL, the environmentalists lost every single challenge, but they ran out the clock, and kept court challenges going long enough for the next election to happen. Biden beat Trump, and then overturned the Presidential Order Trump had given approving the border crossing. In doing so, he killed the project.
The history of pipeline litigation makes the Sovereignty Act rather ironic. What the Sovereignty Act does, in practicality, is essentially the same.
Normally, the feds would implement a law, and the provinces would enforce it. The province might decide to challenge the constitutionality of the law, but the law would be enforced while that challenge occurred. If the province is successful, then the feds got to keep an unconstitutional law in place for the years that the court challenge took.
The Sovereignty Act reverses this situation. If used, the feds would not be able to implement their law in Alberta until they challenged the use of the Sovereignty Act (which would prevent the implementation). The feds would have to justify the constitutionality of their law against whatever the province says is unconstitutional about it. If the feds fail to justify their act, then it is struck down and the Sovereignty Act prevents an unconstitutional law from being enforced on Alberta. If successful, the feds could introduce their law after the court case is resolved. But, the use would be delayed by the court case, likely for years.
Unlike what many people think, the Courts aren't really about trials. Well over 95% of cases settle before they ever see the inside of a courtroom. Having a good or bad case is more about leverage than anything. A good case means good leverage, and likely a good settlement.
Similarly, the point of the Sovereignty Act isn't to use it to kill laws, it is to use it as a negotiating tool.
If the feds want, for instance, to implement a mandatory cut on fertilizer use by farmers, the Sovereignty Act could be used to prevent that. The feds would fight the battle in the courts, but, in the meantime, farmers would be able to keep using fertilizer. That leaves the feds a choice: either work collaboratively with the province and negotiate an agreement that both sides can live with, or go to court, have the policy delayed for years, and have that hanging over your head in the next election (as a win by your competitor could result in the policy being killed, just like Biden did with KXL). It is a public embarrassment to the feds, if it happens, and hurts their agenda, so they are incentivized to negotiate. Maybe that means a less restrictive fertilizer allowance, or phased-in implementation, or funding to enable a transition to more environmentally fertilizer options, etc.
This exact scenario actually played out at this year's budget. The feds threatened to implement three proposals which the province said it would use the Sovereignty Act on (fertilizer, the emissions cap and banning natural gas for electricity generation). There is a very strong argument that all of these matters are within provincial jurisdiction, since the province has constitutional authority over intraprovincial industry (ie. business that takes place exclusively within a single province). To implement the proposed policies, the feds would need to rely on the POGG provision, which is an exception that can allow the feds to pass legislation that encroaches on provincial authority, if it meets a certain test (the carbon tax was deemed constitutional based on the court finding that this exception had been met). Nothing about those constitutional challenges would have been a frivolous claim. The result of the threat was that the feds did not include those measures in the budget, and instead engaged collaboratively with Alberta. None of those measures have yet been implemented.
Unfortunately, this is the approach we need with the feds right now. Trudeau knows he has no shot of winning significant seats in Alberta, so his policies are focused on winning seats elsewhere. Some of this is with policies that apply cross-country on the surface, yet have disproportionate effect (like the 2035 grid policy I discussed above). Some of this is with policies that directly target the oil industry in Alberta (there is no emissions cap being contemplated for Ontario or Quebec's manufacturing sector, nor was there ever legislation targeting the manufacturing of cars and planes made in those places that run on Albertan hydrocarbons, and the shipping industries of the Atlantic Provinces and BC were never targeted either, despite being one of the world's most carbon intensive industries).
We needed leaders like Lougheed to stand up to the feds when Trudeau's dad was targeting the province, and unfortunately, we need that now, too.
Notley's plan, of course, is to get rid of the Sovereignty Act, based on unfounded allegations of chasing away investment (which, as I discussed in the Economy section, continues to boom right now). I wish her "be nice to the feds and maybe they'll be nice back" approach worked, but it didn't, and, as a professional negotiator, that doesn't surprise me at all.
Hard bargaining is far from the only negotiation strategy out there, but it's a tool you have to have. Negotiation theory means little without leverage. Many softer negotiation approaches are useless in litigation if your opponent knows you aren't willing to go to court, because they have no incentive to work collaboratively with you if you have no leverage. The ability to go to court is the source of your leverage. A successful trial lawyer will get better settlements in their cases because their trial record gives them leverage (ie. "if I don't settle with this guy, he is willing to go to trial). Lawyers who don't have credibility as a trial lawyer will get less on the same cases because they lack that same leverage. They don't even have to be good trial lawyers, they just have to be willing to fight a trial, because just the costs of a trial act as a significant incentive to work out a deal.
So, where is the source of Notley's leverage? Last time around, I thought she had a real shot to use the leverage of using her position as a non-conservative to give Trudeau an opening in Alberta. In 2015, Trudeau nearly tripled his predecessor's popular vote total in Alberta (9.3% in 2011 to 24.6% in 2015). Working collaboratively potentially gave Notley something Trudeau wanted (the promise of a breakthrough in Alberta). But, instead of using her leverage to get a solid commitment (like a commitment to retain the approval of Northern Gateway), she volunteered to champion his climate initiatives for vague promises of "pipelines for social responsibility".
The rest is history. In 2015, it was commonly known that Alberta's pipelines would reach capacity in 2018 when Fort Hills went online, since production levels in the oil sands are set 5-10 years in advance. Only two pipelines were set to be completed by 2018: Northern Gateway and Energy East. The TMX issue with BC didn't even arise until 2018, when the pipeline crisis had already started. There was never any chance that TMX could avoid the crisis. Notley didn't get a commitment on Northern Gateway, and it was killed. Energy East fell to a similar fate. Bill C-69 was dubbed the "No More Pipelines Bill" by Kenney in the last election, and, as predicted, there have been zero new export pipelines that have even entered the regulatory process since Trudeau took office in 2015.
Obviously, no one is perfect, and, although Notley's mistake was costly, you would hope that she would take that lesson and learn from it. But, as discussed earlier with the 2035 energy grid promise, she is doing the same thing again. What did she negotiate for in return from Trudeau for the 2035 commitment? Could she not at least have asked for federal dollars to subsidize the transition, in exchange for the accelerated timeline? And, why is she dead-set on throwing away her negotiating leverage by killing the Sovereignty Act? If she's not going to use the Act in an unconstitutional way, then what does she gain from taking a tool out of her tool bag? It's not like getting rid of the Act would stop a future UCP government from re-introducing it after a future election. The move is symbolic, at best, and takes away a practical tools from her arsenal.
Ultimately, I just don't trust Notley to negotiate with a federal government that I do not believe has Alberta's best interests at heart. With a different federal government it might be less of an issue for me, but we are where we are. I thought Kenney's approach of verbal grandstanding against the feds was similarly useless. But, the Sovereignty Act is actually a practical tool that has real weight. It's the first time an Albertan government has implemented one of those practical tools since the days of Lougheed and Klein. I don't understand why Notley would take away a tool like that which could work to protect Albertan interests.
Healthcare
Despite being the focus of the NDP's election campaign, I consider this one to be a nothingburger issue, but I wanted to explain why.
Before the last election, there was similar fearmongering about the UCP's approach to healthcare. In response, Kenney signed a healthcare pledge that he would not cut funding to the healthcare system, nor would he delist any service that was currently covered by AHS. He kept that promise, increasing healthcare funding each year, and not delisting any services.
Smith took power last year, and in her one budget since taking power she also increased healthcare funding. Her promise is to increase funding further. She has also made a similar pledge to Kenney's, which went along with the statement, "It means that a UCP government, under my leadership, will not de-list any medical services or prescriptions now covered by Alberta Health Insurance. No exceptions."
Moreover, the federal Canada Health Act also mandates what services have to be covered by provincial healthcare plans. There is no option under the Act to defund family doctor visits or any of the other services that have been talked about.
I have zero concerns about the healthcare issue, and it is ridiculous to me that the NDP have focused so much of their advertising budget on it.
The really sad thing about it, to me, is that the NDP approach is shutting down a conversation on healthcare that we really need to have.
Canada's healthcare system is the 7th most expensive per capita in the world, yet we only rank 35th in terms of quality of care. We are not getting our money's worth, and the situation is also continually getting worse, with per capita inflation-adjusted costs of healthcare increasing in 22 of the past 24 years.
I talked above about my economic concerns relating to the ability to sustainably fund social services, and the same thing applies here. Healthcare spending accounts for 13% of our GDP, which ranks 2nd highest among OCED countries. That's not sustainable.
While many talk about us having "free" healthcare, we don't: we have very expensive healthcare. We just pay for it once a year at tax time, not on a per-service basis.
Unfortunately, we need to have a real talk about our healthcare system, but every time it is brought up by a politician you get this false dichotomy fearmongering about how basically the only two options are our system vs the US system, and how we're going to have our chemistry teachers cooking meth to pay for medical care like Breaking Bad if we do anything but keep throwing money into propping up a broken system.
In reality, many of the world's best healthcare systems are hybrid systems, with private delivery and public funding being a very successful model (in other words, the government still pays 100% of healthcare costs for everyone, but delivery is provided by profit-motivated private companies who prioritize client service and efficient delivery of services to maximize their own profits).
The current system is a monopoly system. Both sides of the aisle seem to agree on the dangers of monopolies, and how they provide substandard service and higher costs to consumers. I don't know why so many people ignore that government bureaucracies are inherently monopolies, with no profit motive or market competition in place to drive innovation or force them to seek efficiencies.
Anyway, that's a bit of a theoretical rant, but, for the time being, the point is that healthcare shouldn't be a major issue in the election, and I really don't expect to see any noticeable change in healthcare services after this election, regardless of which party wins. Both parties have committed to throwing more money to prop up a broken system, and voter pressure seems to, again, be stopping politicians from having a productive discussion about how we could actually try to fix the system.
Conclusion
While there are other issues in the election, my post is probably long enough, at this point. If you made it all this way, then bravo.
I fully expect that many on this sub will disagree with my opinions, but I hope, at the very least, that people will read this and understand that there is another side to the story here. There are legitimate reasons to vote UCP, and many of us who are voting UCP are well-educated, very well informed on the issues and have considered them carefully, as opposed to just voting based on election sign colours or team loyalty.
2023.05.25 19:30 l3Lu3b3rr1 Jersey Shore: Family Vacation Deena’s All Star Family Fun Dinner
Deena invites Mike, Snooki, and Jwoww to her house for dinner, but this isn’t just any dinner; This is a Family Fun Dinner. There will be food, games, and in-depth discussions of everything that went down this season on Jersey Shore Family Vacation.
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2023.05.25 18:45 rusticgorilla Republicans hold the economy hostage in order to hurt low income Americans
Housekeeping:
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL): “I think my conservative colleagues for the most part support Limit, Save, Grow & they don’t feel like we should negotiate with our hostage.”
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on what concessions Republicans are willing to make on the debt limit talks: “We’re going to raise the debt ceiling.”
Only one other country has a debt ceiling: Denmark. However, two key factors create a less fraught situation for Danes. First, the nation’s politics are less polarized as there are 16 parties in the Danish parliament, and for over a century no party has had enough representatives to rule entirely on its own. Second, Denmark’s debt was about 14% of its ceiling in 2021 - a result that reflects both the nation’s budget surplus and the nation’s high debt ceiling ($284bn) relative to its size, an intentional decision.
Undoing those tax cuts and actually increasing taxes on the rich and corporations would be a guaranteed way to reduce the deficit—which Republicans claim they want to do. Biden has proposed a moderate compromise, only partly reversing the Trump tax cuts by raising the corporate income tax to 28% from the current 21%, still below the pre-Trump 35% rate. Over the next decade, this would result in $1.326 trillion revenue. Biden also wants to institute a minimum 25% tax on American households worth over $100 million, which would bring in $436.61 billion over 10 years. A variety of other tax changes for the wealthy, like increasing the top payroll tax rate to 39.6% (for Americans making more than $400,000 a year) and raising the stock buyback tax, would result in another trillion dollars of revenue over a decade.
For comparison, imposing stricter work requirements on Medicaid, food stamps, and TANF would only save $120 billion over the next ten years.
Meanwhile, one area that Republicans want increased spending is already rife with price gouging, according to a new report. Biden’s proposed 2024 defense budget is $886 billion, a 3.3% increase from last year and the largest Pentagon budget in history. Yet, it is still not high enough for GOP lawmakers, who called it “woefully inadequate.”
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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on what concessions Republicans are willing to make on the debt limit talks: “We’re going to raise the debt ceiling.”
The debt ceiling
U.S. Treasury Department:The debt limit is the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social Security and Medicare benefits, military salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and other payments.The Treasury Department has said that it may be unable to meet its debt obligations if the ceiling is not raised by June 1.
The debt limit does not authorize new spending commitments. It simply allows the government to finance existing legal obligations that Congresses and presidents of both parties have made in the past.
Failing to increase the debt limit would have catastrophic economic consequences. It would cause the government to default on its legal obligations – an unprecedented event in American history. That would precipitate another financial crisis and threaten the jobs and savings of everyday Americans – putting the United States right back in a deep economic hole, just as the country is recovering from the recent recession.
Congress has always acted when called upon to raise the debt limit. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Congressional leaders in both parties have recognized that this is necessary.
Only one other country has a debt ceiling: Denmark. However, two key factors create a less fraught situation for Danes. First, the nation’s politics are less polarized as there are 16 parties in the Danish parliament, and for over a century no party has had enough representatives to rule entirely on its own. Second, Denmark’s debt was about 14% of its ceiling in 2021 - a result that reflects both the nation’s budget surplus and the nation’s high debt ceiling ($284bn) relative to its size, an intentional decision.
Republican demands
Cut social safety nets
The Republicans’ most enduring requirement for ending the hostage situation is imposing strict work requirements for social safety net programs like Medicaid, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (food stamps), and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). The proposed cuts would push the lowest income Americans—including people over 50, single parents, and children—into more dire financial straits.- Raise the work requirement age for food stamps from 49 to 55 years old: Under the GOP proposal, childless, able-bodied adults ages 18 to 55 must be employed at least 20 hours a week to receive food stamps. According to the Congressional Budget Office, 275,000 people, on average, would lose benefits each month because they fail to meet the requirement.
- Institute a work requirement for Medicaid: Republicans are pushing to mandate that able-bodied adults ages 19 to 55 who don’t have children must work at least 80 hours a month to receive Medicaid coverage. The provision would result in about 1.5 million adults, on average, losing federal funding for their Medicaid coverage (though about 900,000 would remain enrolled with their state picking up the tab).
- Restrict the ability of states to offer temporary cash assistance to low-income families: Through a complicated set of changes, Republicans propose limiting the money that states can provide to families with very low incomes through TANF. The program already has a work requirement unless an individual is exempt (due to disability or a newborn child, for example). According to Columbia University, the GOP’s changes to TANF would not only hurt low-income families, but it could also result in “economic and societal costs…as high as $29.6 billion per year.”
Cut other social programs
Republicans want to cut 2024 discretionary spending to the level of fiscal year 2022, resulting in a cut of at least 22% for essential programs. This would be disastrous — 80,000 people would not be able to attend college; 200,000 children would get kicked off Head Start; 100,000 families would lose child care; 1.2 million people would be removed from the Women, Infants and Children Nutrition Program (WIC); 640,000 families would lose access to rental assistance and more than 430,000 low-income families would be evicted.End student loan relief
Some GOP lawmakers are pushing to block Biden’s student debt relief program as a condition for lifting the debt ceiling. Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) appeared on Fox Business to call for negotiators to end the “unconstitutional” program, which provides $20,000 of relief to qualified borrowers if they received a Pell Grant and $10,000 if they did not. The Republican blueprint for raising the debt ceiling, which passed the House with all but four GOP votes, prohibits Biden from enacting the program, in exchange for raising the ceiling for one year.Bring back Trump border policies
Other Republicans want their draconian immigration policies, reflected in the so-called “Secure the Border Act,” to be part of the requirements to raise the debt ceiling:Key GOP lawmakers are signaling they want border policies in the mix as congressional leadership and the White House try to negotiate a debt ceiling deal, the day after Republicans passed a sweeping border and immigration bill. It was a GOP wishlist that included restarting construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall and placing new restrictions on asylum seekers.
“We passed the bill that I think does the job. … And by the way, I think this is now a central part of any debt ceiling or spending debate for the remainder of the year,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said in an interview on Friday.
The hypocrisy
It is important to note that Republicans had no issue with raising the debt ceiling three times under President Donald Trump. They did so while also passing massive tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, contributing to a $3.9 trillion increase to the fiscal deficit through 2026 under Trump’s watch.Undoing those tax cuts and actually increasing taxes on the rich and corporations would be a guaranteed way to reduce the deficit—which Republicans claim they want to do. Biden has proposed a moderate compromise, only partly reversing the Trump tax cuts by raising the corporate income tax to 28% from the current 21%, still below the pre-Trump 35% rate. Over the next decade, this would result in $1.326 trillion revenue. Biden also wants to institute a minimum 25% tax on American households worth over $100 million, which would bring in $436.61 billion over 10 years. A variety of other tax changes for the wealthy, like increasing the top payroll tax rate to 39.6% (for Americans making more than $400,000 a year) and raising the stock buyback tax, would result in another trillion dollars of revenue over a decade.
For comparison, imposing stricter work requirements on Medicaid, food stamps, and TANF would only save $120 billion over the next ten years.
Meanwhile, one area that Republicans want increased spending is already rife with price gouging, according to a new report. Biden’s proposed 2024 defense budget is $886 billion, a 3.3% increase from last year and the largest Pentagon budget in history. Yet, it is still not high enough for GOP lawmakers, who called it “woefully inadequate.”
“A budget that proposes to increase non-defense spending at more than twice the rate of defense is absurd,” House Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., said in a statement on Thursday. “The President’s incredibly misplaced priorities send all the wrong messages to our adversaries.”
The top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Roger Wicker of Mississippi, called the budget request “woefully inadequate.” And the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee’s defense panel, Ken Calvert, R-Calif., accused President Joe Biden of “prioritizing misguided domestic spending and partisan priorities over our warfighting needs” amid “rising global threats.”
2023.05.25 15:52 Baba10x Carl Icahn = Archegos ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/bill-ackman-says-icahn-somewhat-205128986.html
Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman has warned that his investment firm’s rival, Icahn Enterprises, could prove to be another Archegos, a hedge fund whose spectacular 2021 implosion caused losses of over $10 billion for Wall Street banks.
In early May, Hindenburg Research accused the holding company and its famous controlling owner, Carl Icahn, of employing “Ponzi-like” economics by paying off existing retail investors with unsustainably large dividends funded by new investors buying its stock exchange-listed depositary units.
Ever since the allegations were leveled by Hindenburg, which stated from the outset it was selling Icahn Enterprises short in a bet its price would fall, the holding has shed half its market value and is now worth $8.9 billion—less than Ackman’s $10 billion Pershing Square.
On Wednesday, the Pershing Square billionaire said he was “fascinated” by the accusations and in particular the discovery of personal loans taken out by Icahn and secured against the depositary units in his eponymous investment holding, since it could prove highly unstable.
This, he said, “reminds me somewhat of Archegos”, where Wall Street’s prime brokers were left in the dark about just how much money their over-leveraged client was borrowing around town.
“If Icahn were to sell any shares, the stock would likely drop precipitously as the overhang of additional sales and the further resulting loss in confidence would catalyze other shareholders to exit before the deluge,” Ackman wrote.
Bill Hwang’s Archegos family office collapsed like a house of cards two years ago, resulting in numerous banks losing money, most notably Credit Suisse. The Zürich lender, caught holding the proverbial bag, suffered a $5.5 billion hit that helped cement its status as Europe’s worst-managed bank and proved a key contributor to its ultimate downfall in March.
Hwang is now being prosecuted for fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which warned that even a single hedge fund like Archegos “can have far-reaching implications for investors” given enough banks willing to lend it money for speculation.
Icahn Enterprises could not immediately be reached by Fortune for comment.
Ackman said he was neither long nor short on Icahn Enterprises, but merely was watching with interest from the sidelines how Icahn’s precariously financed margin loans would play out.
“All it takes is for one lender to break ranks and liquidate shares or attempt to hedge, before the house comes falling down,” he wrote. “The patsy is the last lender to liquidate.”
Icahn blames Federal Reserve’s QE for his failed bets
On May 10, Icahn Enterprises reported it swung to a quarterly net loss of $270 million from a profit of $323 million a year earlier amid a negative return of 4.1%.
Despite the poor Q1 performance, the sharp drop in the price of its depositary units and, most importantly, Hindenburg’s allegations of impropriety, CEO David Willets ended the investor call after just 12 minutes following his team’s scripted remarks. “Apparently there are no questions, we thank you for your time,” he said.
Hindenburg went on the attack once more the following day after filings revealed that Icahn had now pledged nearly 203 million units against his margin loans, up from 181 million previously, representing a “near-term critical threat“ to unitholders.
“The deal Icahn is making to retail investors is, essentially, ‘buy ~$9 worth of value for ~$32 and I’ll give you back $2 of your own money per quarter, for free’,” it wrote, referring to the quarterly dividend payout. The price of Icahn Enterprises’ depositary units have since further declined, closing on Wednesday just below $24 each.
A week later, an analysis by the Financial Times showed Icahn’s investment portfolio had in fact lost money ever year since 2014. In the past six year alone, the newspaper found $6 billion in gains failed to offset $8.8 billion from losses on bearish bets.
Speaking to the FT, Icahn acknowledged he had made mistakes and failed to heed his own advice and trading strategies that would have limited his losses. “I obviously believed the market was in for great trouble,” he explained, adding he was foiled by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing that helped bolster equity prices
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Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman has warned that his investment firm’s rival, Icahn Enterprises, could prove to be another Archegos, a hedge fund whose spectacular 2021 implosion caused losses of over $10 billion for Wall Street banks.
In early May, Hindenburg Research accused the holding company and its famous controlling owner, Carl Icahn, of employing “Ponzi-like” economics by paying off existing retail investors with unsustainably large dividends funded by new investors buying its stock exchange-listed depositary units.
Ever since the allegations were leveled by Hindenburg, which stated from the outset it was selling Icahn Enterprises short in a bet its price would fall, the holding has shed half its market value and is now worth $8.9 billion—less than Ackman’s $10 billion Pershing Square.
On Wednesday, the Pershing Square billionaire said he was “fascinated” by the accusations and in particular the discovery of personal loans taken out by Icahn and secured against the depositary units in his eponymous investment holding, since it could prove highly unstable.
This, he said, “reminds me somewhat of Archegos”, where Wall Street’s prime brokers were left in the dark about just how much money their over-leveraged client was borrowing around town.
“If Icahn were to sell any shares, the stock would likely drop precipitously as the overhang of additional sales and the further resulting loss in confidence would catalyze other shareholders to exit before the deluge,” Ackman wrote.
Bill Hwang’s Archegos family office collapsed like a house of cards two years ago, resulting in numerous banks losing money, most notably Credit Suisse. The Zürich lender, caught holding the proverbial bag, suffered a $5.5 billion hit that helped cement its status as Europe’s worst-managed bank and proved a key contributor to its ultimate downfall in March.
Hwang is now being prosecuted for fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which warned that even a single hedge fund like Archegos “can have far-reaching implications for investors” given enough banks willing to lend it money for speculation.
Icahn Enterprises could not immediately be reached by Fortune for comment.
Ackman said he was neither long nor short on Icahn Enterprises, but merely was watching with interest from the sidelines how Icahn’s precariously financed margin loans would play out.
“All it takes is for one lender to break ranks and liquidate shares or attempt to hedge, before the house comes falling down,” he wrote. “The patsy is the last lender to liquidate.”
Icahn blames Federal Reserve’s QE for his failed bets
On May 10, Icahn Enterprises reported it swung to a quarterly net loss of $270 million from a profit of $323 million a year earlier amid a negative return of 4.1%.
Despite the poor Q1 performance, the sharp drop in the price of its depositary units and, most importantly, Hindenburg’s allegations of impropriety, CEO David Willets ended the investor call after just 12 minutes following his team’s scripted remarks. “Apparently there are no questions, we thank you for your time,” he said.
Hindenburg went on the attack once more the following day after filings revealed that Icahn had now pledged nearly 203 million units against his margin loans, up from 181 million previously, representing a “near-term critical threat“ to unitholders.
“The deal Icahn is making to retail investors is, essentially, ‘buy ~$9 worth of value for ~$32 and I’ll give you back $2 of your own money per quarter, for free’,” it wrote, referring to the quarterly dividend payout. The price of Icahn Enterprises’ depositary units have since further declined, closing on Wednesday just below $24 each.
A week later, an analysis by the Financial Times showed Icahn’s investment portfolio had in fact lost money ever year since 2014. In the past six year alone, the newspaper found $6 billion in gains failed to offset $8.8 billion from losses on bearish bets.
Speaking to the FT, Icahn acknowledged he had made mistakes and failed to heed his own advice and trading strategies that would have limited his losses. “I obviously believed the market was in for great trouble,” he explained, adding he was foiled by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing that helped bolster equity prices
2023.05.25 15:11 Feeling-Elevator301 Fishing Buddy N TX
I trolled some other subs but none have a lot of active members. Looking for a good fishing buddy in DFW. I'm definitely not a pro. Don't have a boat (yet, but it's on the radar). You can be seasoned or brand new (I have plenty of gear to share). Must be ok w/ me making a complete fool of myself on occasions. The goal is always to not leave a skunk on the shore. Whether it be pond hopping or driving out to a lake to rent some peddle drives. I recently had a buddy drive down from my home state and made me realize again how much fun it was to stay up all night fishing (and landing monsters). My wife wasn't so happy the next day and work kinda sucked, but it was worth landing a 20 lb flathead. Will and can catch just about any species (have a cast net and live well for bait rigging). Fairly efficient around a filet knife and kitchen if we think we wanna keep a few.
If we don't catch a fish - we catch a buzz. Or just squeeze in an hr before work using the "Dad Algorithm." I'm good w/ either. I'm not the most reliable source of info, but I can provide all the gear if you're new and I don't mind teaching if you're just looking to get on the water and away from your wife for a bit lol. Just don't make fun of the "Dad-mobile" when I roll up in my Sentra w/ all my gear. Maybe someone can point me to another sub more fitting. Idk. I know posting in SM can have a mixed bag, but I've gotten a lot of good advice from the Reddit fam so I'm giving it a go here first.
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If we don't catch a fish - we catch a buzz. Or just squeeze in an hr before work using the "Dad Algorithm." I'm good w/ either. I'm not the most reliable source of info, but I can provide all the gear if you're new and I don't mind teaching if you're just looking to get on the water and away from your wife for a bit lol. Just don't make fun of the "Dad-mobile" when I roll up in my Sentra w/ all my gear. Maybe someone can point me to another sub more fitting. Idk. I know posting in SM can have a mixed bag, but I've gotten a lot of good advice from the Reddit fam so I'm giving it a go here first.